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U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector Analysis

UpdatedJan 27, 2026
DataAggregated Company Financials
Companies798
  • 7D-0.2%
  • 3M-1.1%
  • 1Y5.1%
  • YTD2.6%

The Consumer Discretionary is pretty flat in the last 7 days, but Alibaba Group Holding has stood out, gaining 3.6%. As for the the longer term, the industry is up 5.1% over the past 12 months. As for the next few years, earnings are expected to grow by 20% per annum.

Sector Valuation and Performance

Has the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector valuation changed over the past few years?

DateMarket CapRevenueEarningsPEAbsolute PEPS
Wed, 28 Jan 2026US$7.9tUS$3.6tUS$221.4b19.5x35.5x2.2x
Fri, 26 Dec 2025US$7.8tUS$3.6tUS$221.4b19.3x35.4x2.2x
Sun, 23 Nov 2025US$7.2tUS$3.6tUS$225.1b17.9x32x2x
Tue, 21 Oct 2025US$7.6tUS$3.5tUS$220.8b18.7x34.6x2.2x
Thu, 18 Sep 2025US$7.8tUS$3.5tUS$221.4b19.8x35.4x2.3x
Sat, 16 Aug 2025US$7.2tUS$3.5tUS$217.2b19.7x33.1x2.1x
Mon, 14 Jul 2025US$7.0tUS$3.4tUS$215.7b18.9x32.3x2x
Wed, 11 Jun 2025US$6.8tUS$3.4tUS$217.3b17.7x31.2x2x
Fri, 09 May 2025US$6.2tUS$3.4tUS$218.7b16.8x28.4x1.8x
Sun, 06 Apr 2025US$5.6tUS$3.4tUS$211.7b15.5x26.6x1.7x
Tue, 04 Mar 2025US$6.8tUS$3.4tUS$211.4b17.4x32.3x2x
Thu, 30 Jan 2025US$7.4tUS$3.3tUS$198.4b19x37.2x2.2x
Sat, 28 Dec 2024US$7.3tUS$3.3tUS$200.9b18.1x36.4x2.2x
Mon, 25 Nov 2024US$6.7tUS$3.4tUS$199.9b18.6x33.6x2x
Wed, 23 Oct 2024US$5.8tUS$3.2tUS$178.2b18.2x32.6x1.8x
Fri, 20 Sep 2024US$5.6tUS$3.2tUS$177.6b17.6x31.8x1.8x
Sun, 18 Aug 2024US$5.5tUS$3.2tUS$172.6b17.4x31.8x1.7x
Tue, 16 Jul 2024US$5.8tUS$3.1tUS$167.3b17.9x34.6x1.9x
Thu, 13 Jun 2024US$5.4tUS$3.1tUS$168.0b17.8x32.1x1.7x
Sat, 11 May 2024US$5.5tUS$3.1tUS$166.9b18.3x32.7x1.8x
Mon, 08 Apr 2024US$5.3tUS$3.1tUS$160.4b18x33.3x1.7x
Wed, 06 Mar 2024US$5.4tUS$3.1tUS$154.9b17.8x34.6x1.8x
Fri, 02 Feb 2024US$5.1tUS$3.1tUS$149.4b16.8x34x1.7x
Sun, 31 Dec 2023US$5.3tUS$3.1tUS$141.6b17.7x37.5x1.7x
Tue, 28 Nov 2023US$5.0tUS$3.0tUS$139.8b15.4x35.7x1.6x
Thu, 26 Oct 2023US$4.4tUS$3.0tUS$112.8b14.6x39.3x1.5x
Sat, 23 Sep 2023US$4.7tUS$3.0tUS$112.4b14.9x41.9x1.6x
Mon, 21 Aug 2023US$4.7tUS$3.0tUS$112.4b16x42.2x1.6x
Wed, 19 Jul 2023US$5.1tUS$2.9tUS$99.9b15.7x51.4x1.8x
Fri, 16 Jun 2023US$4.8tUS$2.9tUS$98.9b14.8x48.7x1.7x
Sun, 14 May 2023US$4.2tUS$2.9tUS$94.2b14x45x1.5x
Tue, 11 Apr 2023US$4.4tUS$2.9tUS$81.8b13.6x53.3x1.5x
Thu, 09 Mar 2023US$4.5tUS$3.1tUS$86.3b14.3x51.8x1.5x
Sat, 04 Feb 2023US$4.9tUS$3.1tUS$111.4b13.5x43.6x1.6x
Price to Earnings Ratio

43.6x


Total Market Cap: US$4.9tTotal Earnings: US$111.4bTotal Revenue: US$3.1tTotal Market Cap vs Earnings and Revenue0%0%0%
U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector Price to Earnings3Y Average 36.9x202420252026
Current Industry PE
  • Investors are relatively neutral on the American Consumer Discretionary industry at the moment, indicating that they anticipate long term growth rates to remain steady.
  • The industry is trading close to its 3-year average PE ratio of 37.0x.
  • The 3-year average PS ratio of 1.8x is lower than the industry's current PS ratio of 2.2x.
Past Earnings Growth
  • The earnings for companies in the Consumer Discretionary industry have grown 26% per year over the last three years.
  • Revenues for these companies have grown 5.2% per year.
  • This means that more sales are being generated by these companies overall, and subsequently their profits are increasing too.

Industry Trends

Which industries have driven the changes within the U.S. Consumer Discretionary sector?

US Market0.12%
Consumer Discretionary-0.18%
Retail Distributors0.85%
General Merchandise and Department Stores0.50%
Online Retail and Ecommerce0%0
Leisure-0.033%
Specialty Stores-0.19%
Luxury-0.23%
Consumer Services-0.53%
Auto-0.69%
Hospitality-0.69%
Auto Components-1.29%
Consumer Durables-3.20%
Industry PE
  • Investors are most optimistic about the Auto industry which is trading above its 3-year average PE ratio of 121x.
    • Analysts are expecting annual earnings growth of 33.0%, which is higher than its past year's earnings decline of 35.3% per year.
Forecasted Growth
  • Analysts are most optimistic on the Leisure industry, expecting annual earnings growth of 49% over the next 5 years.
  • This is better than its past earnings decline of 35% per year.
  • In contrast, the Consumer Durables industry is expected to see its earnings grow by 7.6% per year over the next few years.

Top Stock Gainers and Losers

Which companies have driven the market over the last 7 days?

CompanyLast Price7D1YValuation
BABA Alibaba Group HoldingUS$171.373.6%
+US$13.3b		90.4%PE21.2x
MELI MercadoLibreUS$2.21k6.6%
+US$7.0b		19.9%PE54x
HD Home DepotUS$386.531.7%
+US$6.3b		-9.0%PE26.4x
ORLY O'Reilly AutomotiveUS$100.245.9%
+US$4.7b		17.2%PE34.1x
RCL Royal Caribbean CruisesUS$293.156.2%
+US$4.7b		23.8%PE19.7x

Latest News

MCD
US$312.95
McDonald's
7D
1.8%
1Y
6.8%
HD
US$386.53
Home Depot
7D
1.7%
1Y
-9.0%
MAR
US$316.70
Marriott International
7D
-2.8%
1Y
9.9%

MAR: Future Outlook Will Balance Midscale Expansion, Brand Extensions And Moderate Room Growth

Analysts have lifted their implied price outlook for Marriott International from about US$302 to roughly US$316, citing updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Marriott has reached 100 signed agreements for City Express by Marriott properties in the U.S. and Canada, with six locations already open in 2025 and four more expected by year end, expanding its midscale presence across leisure and airport adjacent markets such as Kissimmee, Dulles, Amarillo, Sandusky, and Carson City (Key Developments).
BABA
US$171.37
Alibaba Group Holding
7D
3.6%
1Y
90.4%

BABA: Cloud And AI Execution Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Earnings Power

Alibaba's fair value estimate edges higher to about $196.46, with analysts pointing to stronger modeled cloud and AI demand, along with updated price targets that reflect both rising capital expenditure in cloud and more moderate growth in retail revenue. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Alibaba highlights a split view, with some bullish analysts focusing on cloud and AI execution, while more cautious voices focus on spending levels and retail trends.
DHI
US$150.00
D.R. Horton
7D
-3.8%
1Y
1.9%

DHI: Higher Revenue Outlook And Margins Will Offset Rising Discount Rate

Our D.R. Horton analyst price target has been adjusted from US$199 to US$193 as analysts balance expectations for stronger revenue growth and slightly higher profit margins against a higher discount rate and a lower future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on D.R. Horton shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several bullish analysts increasing their price targets while others trim expectations or downgrade ratings.
CVNA
US$473.71
Carvana
7D
6.9%
1Y
95.6%

CVNA: TAM Expansion And S&P 500 Inclusion Will Shape Future Execution Risk

Analysts have lifted their implied fair value for Carvana by about $62 per share to roughly $481, citing a higher assumed future P/E multiple and an improved profit margin outlook, supported by recent price target increases and total addressable market expansion themes across several research notes. Analyst Commentary Bullish and cautious views on Carvana are both coming through in recent research, and they often tie back to how much value analysts see in the company’s expansion efforts and its ability to execute against that opportunity.
TJX
US$150.08
TJX Companies
7D
-4.6%
1Y
20.2%

TJX: Elevated Expectations Around Off Price Expansion May Limit Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for TJX Companies higher to about $124.91 from $117.46, citing recent price target increases across the Street that reflect confidence in the off price model, solid Q3 results, and positive views on consumer spending and market share opportunities into 2026. Analyst Commentary Street research on TJX remains largely constructive, with a cluster of higher price targets following the company’s Q3 report and updated guidance.
RCL
US$293.15
Royal Caribbean Cruises
7D
6.2%
1Y
23.8%

RCL: Strong Demand And Buybacks Are Expected To Drive Upside

Analysts nudged their price targets higher on Royal Caribbean Cruises, with our fair value estimate moving from US$411.61 to about US$414.78 as they weighed stronger cruise demand data alongside mixed views on yields and costs. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Royal Caribbean Cruises points to a split tape, but the more optimistic voices highlight demand strength, supportive spend data, and confidence in the company’s ability to execute through near term headwinds.
AMZN
US$238.42
Amazon.com
7D
-0.3%
1Y
1.3%

AMZN: AI Infrastructure Commitments Will Drive Future Cloud Cash Flow Durability

Analysts have made only a marginal upward adjustment to our fair value estimate for Amazon.com to US$295.61, reflecting slightly higher modeled revenue growth and profit margins. This is partly offset by a modestly lower future P/E multiple and discount rate in light of mixed but generally constructive price target updates that emphasize AWS and advertising demand alongside capital intensity concerns in AI infrastructure.
DRI
US$196.43
Darden Restaurants
7D
-8.5%
1Y
2.0%

DRI: Execution And New Unit Expansion Will Support Long-Term Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Darden Restaurants by about US$2 to reflect slightly lower assumed fair value and P/E multiples, citing a tougher casual dining sales setup into 2026 and limited near term sales drivers, even as some firms still see relative strength in the broader restaurant group. Analyst Commentary Recent research has highlighted a mixed backdrop for Darden Restaurants but also flagged areas where some bullish analysts still see room for the story to work, particularly on execution and valuation relative to the broader restaurant group.
MELI
US$2,212.62
MercadoLibre
7D
6.6%
1Y
19.9%

MELI: Argentina De Risking Will Support Upside Despite Brazilian E Commerce Pressures

Narrative Update The updated analyst fair value estimate for MercadoLibre has moved from about $3,406 to roughly $3,285. This reflects a slightly higher discount rate and more measured assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, in line with recent Street research where analysts have modestly adjusted price targets while weighing Argentina de risking against a more competitive Brazilian e commerce backdrop.
AZO
US$3,786.03
AutoZone
7D
7.5%
1Y
12.3%

AZO: Do It For Me Strength Will Counter Recent Caution On Do It Yourself

Narrative Update Analysts have trimmed their AutoZone fair value estimate by about $118 to $4,213, reflecting slightly higher discount rate assumptions, a modestly lower profit margin outlook, and a higher future P/E input following recent price target resets and sector views from major research firms. Analyst Commentary Street research on AutoZone has turned more mixed recently, with some firms trimming price targets while others see an improved risk and reward profile after the stock's pullback.
TSLA
US$435.20
Tesla
7D
-0.5%
1Y
9.6%

TSLA: Autonomy And Robotaxi Progress Will Reshape Long-Term Equity Story

Analysts have nudged their Tesla price targets higher by aligning models with slightly lower discount rates, marginally firmer revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a modestly reduced future P/E multiple. Recent research highlights both upside tied to full self driving and robotaxi potential, as well as ongoing concerns about auto fundamentals and execution risk.
ORLY
US$100.24
O'Reilly Automotive
7D
5.9%
1Y
17.2%

ORLY: Pricing Tailwinds And Expanded Buybacks Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on O'Reilly Automotive by $5, citing slightly higher discount rate and P/E assumptions, along with recent Street research that includes a modest target cut at Morgan Stanley and an upgrade with supportive pricing commentary at Raymond James. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are highlighting a constructive setup for O'Reilly Automotive, pointing to recent research that balances a modest price target trim against more optimistic rating changes and commentary on pricing.
CPNG
US$19.57
Coupang
7D
-7.4%
1Y
-13.8%

CPNG: Data Breach Resolution And Margin Execution Will Support US$40 Upside

Analysts have kept their Coupang fair value estimate steady at US$40.00, but updated assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and a higher future P/E reflect a mix of regulatory risk after the data breach and continued confidence from recent price target moves, such as Barclays' lift to US$40 and a more constructive stance from Deutsche Bank. Analyst Commentary Recent research highlights a split view, with some firms cautious after the data breach and others more constructive on Coupang's ability to execute and support a higher valuation.
FLUT
US$174.70
Flutter Entertainment
7D
-7.3%
1Y
-33.5%