Duolingo, Inc. (NASDAQ:DUOL) Shares Could Be 48% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Apr 24
U.S. Consumer Services Industry Analysis
UpdatedApr 24, 2024
DataAggregated Company Financials
Companies79
- 7D4.5%
- 3M-1.4%
- 1Y26.5%
- YTD-0.3%
In the last week, the Consumer Services industry is up 4.5%, with Duolingo up 13%. During this same period, the Mynd.ai underperformed, falling 8.2%. This takes the industry's 12 month performance to a gain of 27%. As for the next few years, earnings are expected to grow by 34% per annum.
Industry Valuation and Performance
Has the U.S. Consumer Services Industry valuation changed over the past few years?
| Date | Market Cap | Revenue | Earnings | PE | Absolute PE | PS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 25 Apr 2024 | US$93.6b | US$42.3b | US$1.2b | 19.1x | 78.5x | 2.2x |
| Sat, 23 Mar 2024 | US$96.1b | US$42.7b | US$1.1b | 18.9x | 89.4x | 2.3x |
| Mon, 19 Feb 2024 | US$96.8b | US$43.9b | US$1.1b | 22.9x | 91.4x | 2.2x |
| Wed, 17 Jan 2024 | US$109.8b | US$47.6b | US$958.7m | 21.7x | 114.5x | 2.3x |
| Fri, 15 Dec 2023 | US$112.0b | US$47.6b | US$961.7m | 21.6x | 116.4x | 2.4x |
| Sun, 12 Nov 2023 | US$98.8b | US$45.6b | US$815.3m | 20.7x | 121.2x | 2.2x |
| Tue, 10 Oct 2023 | US$94.0b | US$44.6b | US$619.0m | 18.1x | 151.9x | 2.1x |
| Thu, 07 Sep 2023 | US$94.0b | US$44.5b | US$633.5m | 19.1x | 148.4x | 2.1x |
| Sat, 05 Aug 2023 | US$95.7b | US$44.1b | US$644.3m | 23x | 148.6x | 2.2x |
| Mon, 03 Jul 2023 | US$87.6b | US$42.8b | US$239.5m | 23.9x | 365.9x | 2x |
| Wed, 31 May 2023 | US$85.5b | US$42.8b | US$381.5m | 23.2x | 224.1x | 2x |
| Fri, 28 Apr 2023 | US$89.5b | US$43.3b | US$119.7m | 24.1x | 747.6x | 2.1x |
| Sun, 26 Mar 2023 | US$86.7b | US$43.3b | -US$120,641,217.00 | 22.7x | -718.3x | 2x |
| Tue, 21 Feb 2023 | US$91.1b | US$41.1b | -US$404,009,404.00 | 22.3x | -225.5x | 2.2x |
| Thu, 19 Jan 2023 | US$80.4b | US$41.3b | -US$288,175,599.00 | 18.9x | -279x | 1.9x |
| Sat, 17 Dec 2022 | US$76.5b | US$41.3b | -US$1,195,954,381.00 | 19.7x | -64x | 1.9x |
| Mon, 14 Nov 2022 | US$76.8b | US$41.4b | -US$1,426,886,010.00 | 16.7x | -53.9x | 1.9x |
| Wed, 12 Oct 2022 | US$77.8b | US$46.3b | -US$1,917,716,092.00 | 14.9x | -40.6x | 1.7x |
| Fri, 09 Sep 2022 | US$85.3b | US$46.7b | -US$2,094,138,313.00 | 17.4x | -40.7x | 1.8x |
| Sun, 07 Aug 2022 | US$79.9b | US$43.1b | -US$2,609,729,436.00 | 21.2x | -30.6x | 1.9x |
| Tue, 05 Jul 2022 | US$75.9b | US$44.2b | -US$2,603,844,458.00 | 19.1x | -29.2x | 1.7x |
| Thu, 02 Jun 2022 | US$75.7b | US$44.6b | -US$2,871,875,113.00 | 18.2x | -26.4x | 1.7x |
| Sat, 30 Apr 2022 | US$82.3b | US$45.8b | -US$3,131,363,810.00 | 18x | -26.3x | 1.8x |
| Mon, 28 Mar 2022 | US$82.5b | US$41.2b | -US$2,833,216,941.00 | 20.9x | -29.1x | 2x |
| Wed, 23 Feb 2022 | US$73.1b | US$41.0b | -US$2,079,894,105.00 | 12.3x | -35.2x | 1.8x |
| Fri, 21 Jan 2022 | US$76.6b | US$40.7b | -US$2,122,491,140.00 | 20.1x | -36.1x | 1.9x |
| Sun, 19 Dec 2021 | US$83.5b | US$40.5b | -US$1,504,859,415.00 | 18.4x | -55.5x | 2.1x |
| Tue, 16 Nov 2021 | US$92.0b | US$41.3b | -US$1,224,967,579.00 | 22.3x | -75.1x | 2.2x |
| Thu, 14 Oct 2021 | US$103.0b | US$42.4b | -US$576,702,817.00 | 14.5x | -178.6x | 2.4x |
| Sat, 11 Sep 2021 | US$106.4b | US$49.7b | -US$542,818,346.51 | 14.6x | -196.1x | 2.1x |
| Mon, 09 Aug 2021 | US$106.4b | US$48.8b | US$125.5m | 15.9x | 847.5x | 2.2x |
| Sun, 02 May 2021 | US$147.6b | US$44.6b | US$374.8m | 19x | 393.7x | 3.3x |
Price to Earnings Ratio
393.7x
Current Industry PE
- Investors are optimistic on the American Consumer Services industry, and appear confident in long term growth rates.
- The industry is trading at a PE ratio of 78.5x which is higher than its 3-year average PE of 70.9x.
- The industry is trading close to its 3-year average PS ratio of 2.1x.
Past Earnings Growth
- The earnings for companies in the Consumer Services industry have grown 47% per year over the last three years, while revenues have remained mostly flat.
- This means that companies overall are more efficiently conducting business since profits are increasing while sales have been flat.
Industry Trends
Which industries have driven the changes within the U.S. Consumer Discretionary industry?
| US Market | 1.23% | |
| Consumer Discretionary | 0.52% | |
| Consumer Services | 4.48% | |
| Education Services | 4.76% | |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 3.77% | |
Industry PE
- Investors are most optimistic about the Education Services industry which is trading above its 3-year average PE ratio of 37.0x.
- Analysts are expecting annual earnings growth of 37.8%, which is lower than the prior year's growth of 51.8% per year.
- Investors are most pessimistic about the Specialized Consumer Services industry, which is trading below its 3-year average of 54.1x.
Forecasted Growth
- Analysts are most optimistic on the Education Services industry, expecting annual earnings growth of 38% over the next 5 years.
- However this is lower than its past earnings growth rate of 52% per year.
- In contrast, the Specialized Consumer Services industry is expected to see its earnings grow by 22% per year over the next few years.
Top Stock Gainers and Losers
Which companies have driven the market over the last 7 days?
| Company | Last Price | 7D | 1Y | Valuation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUOL Duolingo | US$216.38 | 11.2% +US$931.3m | 58.4% | PE577.4x | |
| SCI Service Corporation International | US$71.50 | 4.4% +US$438.1m | 1.9% | PE19.5x | |
| TAL TAL Education Group | US$12.26 | 5.5% +US$408.6m | 105.0% | PS5.9x | |
| LRN Stride | US$63.23 | 9.8% +US$249.6m | 47.9% | PE14.5x | |
| BFAM Bright Horizons Family Solutions | US$106.83 | 3.3% +US$196.5m | 46.9% | PE83.6x |
