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LOPE

Grand Canyon Education NasdaqGS:LOPE Stock Report

Last Price

US$79.74

Market Cap

US$2.5b

7D

-6.3%

1Y

-8.3%

Updated

24 Sep, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
LOPE fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation6/6
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance3/6
Financial Health6/6
Dividends0/6

LOPE Stock Overview

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States.

Grand Canyon Education Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Grand Canyon Education
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$79.74
52 Week HighUS$102.04
52 Week LowUS$70.00
Beta0.48
1 Month Change-7.30%
3 Month Change-17.67%
1 Year Change-8.27%
3 Year Change-19.75%
5 Year Change-12.20%
Change since IPO572.91%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 30
Grand Canyon Education (NASDAQ:LOPE) Is Investing Its Capital With Increasing Efficiency

Grand Canyon Education (NASDAQ:LOPE) Is Investing Its Capital With Increasing Efficiency

If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. In a perfect...

Aug 23

Grand Canyon Education: Excellent Long-Term Buying Opportunity Will Present Itself Shortly

Grand Canyon Education's top and bottom line guidance were cut for fiscal 2022. Shares look like they will struggle over the near term. Balance sheet strength, a keen valuation as well as strong profitability should put a floor in this stock before long. Intro We wrote about Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) back in February of this year when we stated we were still waiting for lower prices before entering into a long position here. Although shares have risen roughly 8% since that February article (which is an excellent return considering the S&P is down roughly 8% in the same period), there were some worrying signs in the company's recent second-quarter earnings report which makes us still think that lower prices are ahead of us. Although earnings per share of $0.85 met consensus in the quarter, sales ($199.75 million) did not, but probably the brunt of the post-earnings decline in shares came from management's weaker guidance for the latter part of this year. Partner enrollments (96,029) in Q2 came in almost 6,000 lower compared to the same period of 12 months prior. Q3 service revenue is now expected to come in at approximately $206 million, roughly $8 million down from the originally guided $214 million. This downward trend is also expected in the fourth quarter with $254 million being the new top-line estimate which itself is down roughly $6 million from the company's most previous guided number. As we can see from the technical chart below, the market did not take favorably to the guidance cuts. The post-earnings drop in the share price means shares are now trading well below their 200-day moving average of $88.12 which is right in line with the fresh gap on the technical chart (which will also act as overhead resistance). Lower Lows On LOPE's Technical Chart (Stockcharts.com) Suffice it to say, this is why we believe the symmetrical triangle on the long-term chart (most often a continuation pattern) has high odds of playing itself out here in due course for profitability reasons we discuss below. Furthermore, the height of LOPE's symmetrical triangle clearly demonstrates the potential in this play once we register a firm bottom. LOPE Symmetrical Triangle (Stockcharts.com) Gross Margin Although earnings revisions continue to get dialed down, Grand Canyon Education continues to work off a strong gross margin metric which is encouraging. The company's gross margin metric comes in at 55.5% over a trailing twelve-month average compared to LOPE's 5-year average of 53.87%. In fact, since the end of fiscal 2019, LOPE's gross profit (over a trailing annual basis) has remained above 50% which is a metric that definitely has changed for the better compared to previous years. Suffice it to say, the more elevated and the steadier the company's gross profit margin, the better the business. Gross profit came in just under 48% in LOPE's second quarter which resulted in a gross profit of $95.5 million. Although operating expenses came in lower than expected in the second quarter, net profit still totaled $25.6 million for the three-month period. Suffice it to say, although Wall Street will bemoan the clear lack of bottom-line growth, LOPE'S strong margins ensure profitability will remain elevated at LOPE.

Shareholder Returns

LOPEUS Consumer ServicesUS Market
7D-6.3%-6.4%-5.2%
1Y-8.3%-32.5%-23.1%

Return vs Industry: LOPE exceeded the US Consumer Services industry which returned -32.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: LOPE exceeded the US Market which returned -23.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is LOPE's price volatile compared to industry and market?
LOPE volatility
LOPE Average Weekly Movement4.2%
Consumer Services Industry Average Movement8.6%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: LOPE is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: LOPE's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
19494,318Brian Muellerhttps://www.gce.com

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States. The company’s technology services include learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; academic services comprises program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites; and counseling services and support include admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services. It also offers marketing and communication services, such as lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, market research, media planning and strategy, video, and business intelligence and data science; and back-office services comprising finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services.

Grand Canyon Education Fundamentals Summary

How do Grand Canyon Education's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
LOPE fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$2.51b
Earnings (TTM)US$216.41m
Revenue (TTM)US$902.03m

11.6x

P/E Ratio

2.8x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
LOPE income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$902.03m
Cost of RevenueUS$401.39m
Gross ProfitUS$500.64m
Other ExpensesUS$284.23m
EarningsUS$216.41m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)6.87
Gross Margin55.50%
Net Profit Margin23.99%
Debt/Equity Ratio0%

How did LOPE perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is LOPE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LOPE?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

LOPE key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA8.2x
PEG Ratio-5.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LOPE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

LOPE PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for LOPE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average35.3x
GHC Graham Holdings
17.1xn/aUS$2.6b
CHGG Chegg
54.2x71.9%US$2.4b
STRA Strategic Education
31.8x38.1%US$1.5b
BFAM Bright Horizons Family Solutions
38.2x33.0%US$3.4b
LOPE Grand Canyon Education
11.6x-2.1%US$2.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LOPE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the peer average (35.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LOPE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Services Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LOPE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (16.5x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LOPE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LOPE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.6x
Fair PE Ratio19.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LOPE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LOPE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LOPE ($79.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($215.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LOPE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Grand Canyon Education forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


-2.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: LOPE's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.1% per year).

Earnings vs Market: LOPE's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: LOPE's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: LOPE's revenue (3.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: LOPE's revenue (3.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if LOPE's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


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Past Performance

How has Grand Canyon Education performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


5.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: LOPE has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: LOPE's current net profit margins (24%) are lower than last year (30.4%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: LOPE's earnings have grown by 5.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: LOPE's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: LOPE had negative earnings growth (-18.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Consumer Services industry average (9.3%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: LOPE's Return on Equity (35.7%) is considered high.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Grand Canyon Education's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: LOPE's short term assets ($249.9M) exceed its short term liabilities ($103.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: LOPE's short term assets ($249.9M) exceed its long term liabilities ($76.9M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: LOPE is debt free.

Reducing Debt: LOPE has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 7.5%.

Debt Coverage: LOPE has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: LOPE has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Grand Canyon Education current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate LOPE's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate LOPE's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LOPE's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LOPE's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as LOPE has not reported any payouts.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Brian Mueller (68 yo)

14.17yrs

Tenure

US$1,843,058

Compensation

Mr. Brian E. Mueller has been the Chief Executive Officer of Grand Canyon Education, Inc. since July 1, 2008 and also serves as its President. Mr. Mueller serves as Chairman, President, Chief Executive Off...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Brian's total compensation ($USD1.84M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.95M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Brian's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: LOPE's management team is considered experienced (3.8 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: LOPE's board of directors are considered experienced (6.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

NasdaqGS:LOPE Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
07 Jun 22SellUS$90,370Lori BrowningIndividual1,000US$90.37
11 Mar 22SellUS$73,728Kathy ClaypatchIndividual800US$92.16

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 69.59% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
9.38%
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
2,951,898$235.4m-10.52%0.01%
9.28%
BlackRock, Inc.
2,921,707$233.0m-13.41%0.01%
6.69%
Riverbridge Partners, LLC
2,105,426$167.9m-29.14%2.62%
3.54%
Fidelity International Ltd
1,115,758$89.0m0.76%0.05%
3.43%
Massachusetts Financial Services Company
1,080,921$86.2m-40.45%0.02%
3.39%
ArrowMark Colorado Holdings, LLC
1,067,626$85.1m-28.61%1%
3.05%
Burgundy Asset Management Ltd.
960,675$76.6m0.77%0.77%
2.88%
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
905,948$72.2m-16.91%no data
2.74%
GW&K Investment Management, LLC
863,330$68.8m0.36%0.74%
2.72%
Van Berkom and Associates Inc.
857,137$68.3m-16.84%2.79%
2.37%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
746,594$59.5m0.99%0.01%
1.95%
FMR LLC
612,400$48.8m25707%no data
1.91%
Northern Trust Global Investments
600,058$47.8m24.27%0.01%
1.8%
Handelsbanken Asset Management
566,187$45.1m-2.29%0.1%
1.72%
Jacobs Levy Equity Management Inc
542,720$43.3m105.86%0.34%
1.71%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
538,656$43.0m-7.01%0.01%
1.57%
Wasatch Advisors Inc
494,003$39.4m-3.24%0.19%
1.52%
Reinhart Partners, Inc.
477,704$38.1m3.3%2.16%
1.43%
Thrivent Investment Management, Inc.
451,633$36.0m59.92%0.1%
1.25%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
394,101$31.4m9.57%0.07%
1.23%
Norges Bank Investment Management
386,907$30.9m0%no data
1.17%
BNY Mellon Asset Management
368,729$29.4m-16.08%0.01%
0.96%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
301,814$24.1m-7.5%0.01%
0.95%
Nordea Investment Management AB
299,404$23.9m-21.61%0.02%
0.95%
Brian Mueller
299,252$23.9m-0.37%no data

Company Information

Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
  • Ticker: LOPE
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 1949
  • Industry: Education Services
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Implied Market Cap: US$2.510b
  • Shares outstanding: 31.48m
  • Website: https://www.gce.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
  • 2600 West Camelback Road
  • Phoenix
  • Arizona
  • 85017
  • United States


Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
LOPENasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select)YesCommon StockUSUSDNov 2008
GKDDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURNov 2008

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/09/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/09/23 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.