| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 6/6 |
| Future Growth | 0/6 |
| Past Performance | 3/6 |
| Financial Health | 6/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
LOPE Stock Overview
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States.
Grand Canyon Education Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$79.74 |
| 52 Week High | US$102.04 |
| 52 Week Low | US$70.00 |
| Beta | 0.48 |
| 1 Month Change | -7.30% |
| 3 Month Change | -17.67% |
| 1 Year Change | -8.27% |
| 3 Year Change | -19.75% |
| 5 Year Change | -12.20% |
| Change since IPO | 572.91% |
Recent News & Updates
Grand Canyon Education (NASDAQ:LOPE) Is Investing Its Capital With Increasing Efficiency
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. In a perfect...
Grand Canyon Education: Excellent Long-Term Buying Opportunity Will Present Itself Shortly
Grand Canyon Education's top and bottom line guidance were cut for fiscal 2022. Shares look like they will struggle over the near term. Balance sheet strength, a keen valuation as well as strong profitability should put a floor in this stock before long. Intro We wrote about Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) back in February of this year when we stated we were still waiting for lower prices before entering into a long position here. Although shares have risen roughly 8% since that February article (which is an excellent return considering the S&P is down roughly 8% in the same period), there were some worrying signs in the company's recent second-quarter earnings report which makes us still think that lower prices are ahead of us. Although earnings per share of $0.85 met consensus in the quarter, sales ($199.75 million) did not, but probably the brunt of the post-earnings decline in shares came from management's weaker guidance for the latter part of this year. Partner enrollments (96,029) in Q2 came in almost 6,000 lower compared to the same period of 12 months prior. Q3 service revenue is now expected to come in at approximately $206 million, roughly $8 million down from the originally guided $214 million. This downward trend is also expected in the fourth quarter with $254 million being the new top-line estimate which itself is down roughly $6 million from the company's most previous guided number. As we can see from the technical chart below, the market did not take favorably to the guidance cuts. The post-earnings drop in the share price means shares are now trading well below their 200-day moving average of $88.12 which is right in line with the fresh gap on the technical chart (which will also act as overhead resistance). Lower Lows On LOPE's Technical Chart (Stockcharts.com) Suffice it to say, this is why we believe the symmetrical triangle on the long-term chart (most often a continuation pattern) has high odds of playing itself out here in due course for profitability reasons we discuss below. Furthermore, the height of LOPE's symmetrical triangle clearly demonstrates the potential in this play once we register a firm bottom. LOPE Symmetrical Triangle (Stockcharts.com) Gross Margin Although earnings revisions continue to get dialed down, Grand Canyon Education continues to work off a strong gross margin metric which is encouraging. The company's gross margin metric comes in at 55.5% over a trailing twelve-month average compared to LOPE's 5-year average of 53.87%. In fact, since the end of fiscal 2019, LOPE's gross profit (over a trailing annual basis) has remained above 50% which is a metric that definitely has changed for the better compared to previous years. Suffice it to say, the more elevated and the steadier the company's gross profit margin, the better the business. Gross profit came in just under 48% in LOPE's second quarter which resulted in a gross profit of $95.5 million. Although operating expenses came in lower than expected in the second quarter, net profit still totaled $25.6 million for the three-month period. Suffice it to say, although Wall Street will bemoan the clear lack of bottom-line growth, LOPE'S strong margins ensure profitability will remain elevated at LOPE.
Shareholder Returns
| LOPE | US Consumer Services | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -6.3% | -6.4% | -5.2% |
| 1Y | -8.3% | -32.5% | -23.1% |
Return vs Industry: LOPE exceeded the US Consumer Services industry which returned -32.5% over the past year.
Return vs Market: LOPE exceeded the US Market which returned -23.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| LOPE volatility | |
|---|---|
| LOPE Average Weekly Movement | 4.2% |
| Consumer Services Industry Average Movement | 8.6% |
| Market Average Movement | 6.9% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 15.9% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 2.8% |
Stable Share Price: LOPE is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.
Volatility Over Time: LOPE's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1949 | 4,318 | Brian Mueller | https://www.gce.com |
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States. The company’s technology services include learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; academic services comprises program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites; and counseling services and support include admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services. It also offers marketing and communication services, such as lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, market research, media planning and strategy, video, and business intelligence and data science; and back-office services comprising finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services.
Grand Canyon Education Fundamentals Summary
| LOPE fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$2.51b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$216.41m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$902.03m |
11.6x
P/E Ratio2.8x
P/S RatioIs LOPE overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| LOPE income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$902.03m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$401.39m |
| Gross Profit | US$500.64m |
| Other Expenses | US$284.23m |
| Earnings | US$216.41m |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 6.87 |
| Gross Margin | 55.50% |
| Net Profit Margin | 23.99% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 0% |
How did LOPE perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonValuation
Is LOPE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
6/6Valuation Score 6/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LOPE?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is LOPE's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$2.51b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 2.6x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 8.2x |
| PEG Ratio | -5.4x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does LOPE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| LOPE PE Ratio vs Peers |
|---|
| Company | PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 35.3x | ||
GHC Graham Holdings | 17.1x | n/a | US$2.6b |
CHGG Chegg | 54.2x | 71.9% | US$2.4b |
STRA Strategic Education | 31.8x | 38.1% | US$1.5b |
BFAM Bright Horizons Family Solutions | 38.2x | 33.0% | US$3.4b |
LOPE Grand Canyon Education | 11.6x | -2.1% | US$2.5b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LOPE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the peer average (35.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does LOPE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Services Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LOPE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (16.5x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is LOPE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 11.6x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 19.2x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LOPE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.2x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of LOPE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: LOPE ($79.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($215.7)
Significantly Below Fair Value: LOPE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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Future Growth
How is Grand Canyon Education forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?
Future Growth Score
0/6Future Growth Score 0/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
-2.1%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: LOPE's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.1% per year).
Earnings vs Market: LOPE's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.1% per year).
High Growth Earnings: LOPE's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: LOPE's revenue (3.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: LOPE's revenue (3.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if LOPE's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
Discover growth companies
Past Performance
How has Grand Canyon Education performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
3/6Past Performance Score 3/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
5.2%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: LOPE has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: LOPE's current net profit margins (24%) are lower than last year (30.4%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: LOPE's earnings have grown by 5.2% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: LOPE's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: LOPE had negative earnings growth (-18.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Consumer Services industry average (9.3%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: LOPE's Return on Equity (35.7%) is considered high.
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Financial Health
How is Grand Canyon Education's financial position?
Financial Health Score
6/6Financial Health Score 6/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: LOPE's short term assets ($249.9M) exceed its short term liabilities ($103.7M).
Long Term Liabilities: LOPE's short term assets ($249.9M) exceed its long term liabilities ($76.9M).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: LOPE is debt free.
Reducing Debt: LOPE has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 7.5%.
Debt Coverage: LOPE has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.
Interest Coverage: LOPE has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.
Balance Sheet
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Dividend
What is Grand Canyon Education current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
0/6Dividend Score 0/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate LOPE's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate LOPE's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LOPE's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LOPE's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as LOPE has not reported any payouts.
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Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
3.8yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Brian Mueller (68 yo)
14.17yrs
Tenure
US$1,843,058
Compensation
Mr. Brian E. Mueller has been the Chief Executive Officer of Grand Canyon Education, Inc. since July 1, 2008 and also serves as its President. Mr. Mueller serves as Chairman, President, Chief Executive Off...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Brian's total compensation ($USD1.84M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.95M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Brian's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: LOPE's management team is considered experienced (3.8 years average tenure).
Board Members
Experienced Board: LOPE's board of directors are considered experienced (6.3 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
| Date | Value | Name | Entity | Role | Shares | Max Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Jun 22 | SellUS$90,370 | Lori Browning | Individual | 1,000 | US$90.37 | |
| 11 Mar 22 | SellUS$73,728 | Kathy Claypatch | Individual | 800 | US$92.16 |
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
| Ownership | Name | Shares | Current Value | Change % | Portfolio % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,951,898 | $235.4m | -10.52% | 0.01% | |||
| 2,921,707 | $233.0m | -13.41% | 0.01% | |||
| 2,105,426 | $167.9m | -29.14% | 2.62% | |||
| 1,115,758 | $89.0m | 0.76% | 0.05% | |||
| 1,080,921 | $86.2m | -40.45% | 0.02% | |||
| 1,067,626 | $85.1m | -28.61% | 1% | |||
| 960,675 | $76.6m | 0.77% | 0.77% | |||
| 905,948 | $72.2m | -16.91% | no data | |||
| 863,330 | $68.8m | 0.36% | 0.74% | |||
| 857,137 | $68.3m | -16.84% | 2.79% | |||
| 746,594 | $59.5m | 0.99% | 0.01% | |||
| 612,400 | $48.8m | 25707% | no data | |||
| 600,058 | $47.8m | 24.27% | 0.01% | |||
| 566,187 | $45.1m | -2.29% | 0.1% | |||
| 542,720 | $43.3m | 105.86% | 0.34% | |||
| 538,656 | $43.0m | -7.01% | 0.01% | |||
| 494,003 | $39.4m | -3.24% | 0.19% | |||
| 477,704 | $38.1m | 3.3% | 2.16% | |||
| 451,633 | $36.0m | 59.92% | 0.1% | |||
| 394,101 | $31.4m | 9.57% | 0.07% | |||
| 386,907 | $30.9m | 0% | no data | |||
| 368,729 | $29.4m | -16.08% | 0.01% | |||
| 301,814 | $24.1m | -7.5% | 0.01% | |||
| 299,404 | $23.9m | -21.61% | 0.02% | |||
| 299,252 | $23.9m | -0.37% | no data |
Company Information
Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
- Ticker: LOPE
- Exchange: NasdaqGS
- Founded: 1949
- Industry: Education Services
- Sector: Consumer Services
- Implied Market Cap: US$2.510b
- Shares outstanding: 31.48m
- Website: https://www.gce.com
Number of Employees
Location
- Grand Canyon Education, Inc.
- 2600 West Camelback Road
- Phoenix
- Arizona
- 85017
- United States
Listings
| Ticker | Exchange | Primary Security | Security Type | Country | Currency | Listed on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOPE | NasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select) | Yes | Common Stock | US | USD | Nov 2008 |
| GKD | DB (Deutsche Boerse AG) | Yes | Common Stock | DE | EUR | Nov 2008 |
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/09/24 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/09/23 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.