Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

NasdaqGS:LOPE Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.5b

Grand Canyon Education Valuation

Is LOPE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of LOPE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: LOPE ($167.97) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($302.42)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: LOPE is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LOPE?

Key metric: As LOPE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LOPE. This is calculated by dividing LOPE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LOPE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.8x
EarningsUS$216.17m
Market CapUS$4.50b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LOPE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LOPE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.9x
GHC Graham Holdings
15.9xn/aUS$4.6b
LAUR Laureate Education
17.6x9.37%US$4.9b
BFAM Bright Horizons Family Solutions
22.6x16.10%US$4.3b
CVSA Covista
15.4x10.68%US$3.8b
LOPE Grand Canyon Education
20.8x13.15%US$4.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LOPE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the peer average (17.9x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LOPE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Services Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WW WW International
0.2x-146.37%US$179.54m
RGS Regis
0.5xn/aUS$59.85m
STG Sunlands Technology Group
1xn/aUS$55.31m
REDU RISE Education Cayman
1xn/aUS$40.41m
LOPE 20.8xIndustry Avg. 18.0xNo. of Companies7PE01224364860+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LOPE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (18.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LOPE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LOPE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.8x
Fair PE Ratio22.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LOPE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LOPE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$167.97
US$213.00
+26.81%
7.98%US$230.00US$196.00n/a2
Mar ’27US$159.07
US$213.00
+33.90%
7.98%US$230.00US$196.00n/a2
Feb ’27US$173.84
US$222.67
+28.09%
8.75%US$242.00US$196.00n/a3
Jan ’27US$166.31
US$222.67
+33.89%
8.75%US$242.00US$196.00n/a3
Dec ’26US$158.06
US$231.00
+46.15%
3.72%US$242.00US$221.00n/a3
Nov ’26US$188.30
US$239.00
+26.93%
2.71%US$245.00US$230.00n/a3
Oct ’26US$218.18
US$227.33
+4.20%
5.81%US$242.00US$210.00n/a3
Sep ’26US$201.57
US$213.33
+5.84%
1.10%US$215.00US$210.00n/a3
Aug ’26US$170.15
US$213.33
+25.38%
1.10%US$215.00US$210.00n/a3
Jul ’26US$189.29
US$217.33
+14.82%
1.52%US$222.00US$215.00n/a3
Jun ’26US$197.85
US$217.33
+9.85%
1.52%US$222.00US$215.00n/a3
May ’26US$178.97
US$199.33
+11.38%
3.02%US$205.00US$191.00n/a3
Apr ’26US$176.81
US$203.00
+14.81%
0.70%US$205.00US$202.00n/a3
Mar ’26US$179.82
US$203.00
+12.89%
0.70%US$205.00US$202.00US$159.073
Feb ’26US$175.64
US$182.33
+3.81%
1.44%US$186.00US$180.00US$173.843
Jan ’26US$163.80
US$182.33
+11.31%
1.44%US$186.00US$180.00US$166.313
Dec ’25US$164.59
US$179.67
+9.16%
2.96%US$186.00US$173.00US$158.063
Nov ’25US$136.14
US$162.33
+19.24%
4.67%US$170.00US$152.00US$188.303
Oct ’25US$142.60
US$165.67
+16.18%
1.99%US$170.00US$162.00US$218.183
Sep ’25US$145.01
US$165.67
+14.24%
1.99%US$170.00US$162.00US$201.573
Aug ’25US$153.22
US$165.00
+7.69%
2.47%US$170.00US$160.00US$170.153
Jul ’25US$141.50
US$165.00
+16.61%
2.47%US$170.00US$160.00US$189.293
Jun ’25US$142.46
US$165.00
+15.82%
2.47%US$170.00US$160.00US$197.853
May ’25US$130.96
US$158.33
+20.90%
3.94%US$165.00US$150.00US$178.973
Apr ’25US$137.35
US$158.33
+15.28%
3.94%US$165.00US$150.00US$176.813
Mar ’25US$134.71
US$158.33
+17.54%
3.94%US$165.00US$150.00US$179.823
US$213
Fair Value
21.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
2
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/03/24 05:02
End of Day Share Price 2026/03/24 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. is covered by 18 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Steven PawlakBaird
Jeffrey MeulerBaird
Alexander ParisBarrington Research Associates, Inc.