There's Reason For Concern Over Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LOPE) Price

It's not a stretch to say that Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LOPE) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 18x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Grand Canyon Education certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings will be less resilient moving forward. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Grand Canyon Education

Keen to find out how analysts think Grand Canyon Education's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Grand Canyon Education's Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Grand Canyon Education would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 20% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 31% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 9.7% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

In light of this, it's curious that Grand Canyon Education's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Grand Canyon Education's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Grand Canyon Education with six simple checks.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Grand Canyon Education, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.