Hochschild Mining – Overview
- Location: South America
- Production (2025):
- Gold: 250,000 oz
- Silver: 8 million oz (excluding Pallancata C&M)
- AISC (Break-even):
- Gold: ~$1,850/oz
- Silver: ~$24/oz
- Cash Flow Margin at $4,000 gold / $100 silver: Strong
- Debt: $350M
- $100M due in 2024
- $89M cash on hand
- $200M additional credit available
New & Future Projects
- Mara Rosa (Brazil):
- 80,000 oz/year (low cost)
- Started in 2024
- Royropata (Peru):
- 100,000 oz AUEQ (3M oz silver/year)
- Starts in 2028
- Monte Do Carmo (Brazil):
- 90,000 oz gold
- Permitting stage – expected 2028
- Volcan (Chile):
- 9 million oz gold (.7 gpt)
- Potential 330K oz/year
- AISC: ~$1,000
- Capex: $900M
- Production could begin 2028–2030
- Not included in cash flow estimate (optional upside or sale)
Ownership
- 50% owned by one family
- Dividends are a priority
- Unlikely to sell – growth focus
Valuation at $4,000 Gold / $100 Silver Assume production from 2028 with 400K oz gold & 10M oz silver:
- Gold FCF: 400,000 oz × ($4,000 – $1,850) = $860M
- Silver FCF: 10,000,000 oz × ($100 – $24) = $760M
- Total Annual FCF ≈ $1.62B
- Valuation at 10x FCF = $16.2B
Conclusion If Hochschild Mining executes on new projects and gold reaches $4,000/oz, silver hits $100/oz, the company could be worth over $16 billion. However, high debt, permitting risks, and political red flags (Argentina, Peru, Chile) may keep valuation multiples conservative. Still, multi-bagger potential from current levels.
If Hochschild Mining reaches a market cap of $16.2 billion, the estimated stock price would be approximately $31.46 per share, assuming 515 million shares outstanding.
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Disclaimer
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