ADT (NYSE:ADT) - Share price, News & Analysis

ADT fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	1/6

ADT Stock Overview

ADT Inc. provides security, automation, and smart home solutions to consumer and business customers in the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 55% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 108.9% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 2.04% is not well covered by earnings or forecast to be in the next 3 years

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

ADT Competitors

Vivint Smart Home

NYSE:VVNT

US$1.2b

Apple

NasdaqGS:AAPL

US$2.4t

Amazon.com

NasdaqGS:AMZN

US$1.2t

Samsung Electronics

KOSE:A005930

₩444.2t

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for ADT
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$6.86
52 Week High	US$11.78
52 Week Low	US$6.43
Beta	2
1 Month Change	-1.86%
3 Month Change	-12.50%
1 Year Change	-25.27%
3 Year Change	13.02%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-44.63%

Recent News & Updates

May 09

ADT (NYSE:ADT) Has Re-Affirmed Its Dividend Of US$0.035

ADT Inc. ( NYSE:ADT ) will pay a dividend of US$0.035 on the 5th of July. Based on this payment, the dividend yield...

May 05

ADT - Where Is The Security?

ADT has given up all the gained ground since the Google deal in 2020. The company is struggling along as the partnership still has to deliver on tangible results, while ADT has made a convincing move into the solar business as well. There are many moving parts and question marks, but the retreat in ADT's share price means that valuations have come down quite a bit. Real appeal has to come from solid execution, which is a big "if."

Shareholder Returns

	ADT	US Consumer Services	US Market
7D	3.9%	-0.6%	0.7%
1Y	-25.3%	-57.9%	-10.8%

Return vs Industry: ADT exceeded the US Consumer Services industry which returned -58% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ADT underperformed the US Market which returned -10.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ADT's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ADT volatility
ADT Average Weekly Movement	6.5%
Consumer Services Industry Average Movement	9.9%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: ADT is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ADT's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1874	25,000	Jim DeVries	https://www.adt.com

ADT Inc. provides security, automation, and smart home solutions to consumer and business customers in the United States. It provides a range of fire detection, fire suppression, video surveillance, and access control systems to residential, commercial, and multi-site customers. The company primarily offers monitored security and automation solutions, including the installation and monitoring of security and premises automation systems designed to detect intrusion, control access, sense movement, smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, flooding, temperature, and other environmental conditions and hazards; and address personal emergencies, such as injuries, medical emergencies, or incapacitation.

ADT Fundamentals Summary

How do ADT's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ADT fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$6.34b
Earnings (TTM)	-US$241.28m
Revenue (TTM)	US$5.55b

1.1x

P/S Ratio

-25.8x

P/E Ratio

Is ADT overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ADT income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$5.55b
Cost of Revenue	US$1.68b
Gross Profit	US$3.87b
Other Expenses	US$4.11b
Earnings	-US$241.28m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.27
Gross Margin	69.74%
Net Profit Margin	-4.35%
Debt/Equity Ratio	298.3%

How did ADT perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.0%

Current Dividend Yield

-49%

Payout Ratio

Does ADT pay a reliable dividends?

See ADT dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy ADT by to receive an upcoming dividend?
ADT dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Jun 15 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Jul 05 2022
Days until Ex dividend	29 days
Days until Dividend pay date	49 days

Does ADT pay a reliable dividends?

See ADT dividend history and benchmarks

Valuation

Is ADT undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: ADT ($6.86) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($15.23)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ADT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: ADT is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US Consumer Services industry average.

PE vs Market: ADT is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ADT's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: ADT is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.9x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (1.3x).

Future Growth

How is ADT forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

108.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ADT is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: ADT is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: ADT's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ADT's revenue (9.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ADT's revenue (9.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ADT's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (27.6%)

Past Performance

How has ADT performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-17.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ADT is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: ADT is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ADT is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 17% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare ADT's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: ADT is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Consumer Services industry (-15.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: ADT has a negative Return on Equity (-7.36%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Financial Health

How is ADT's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ADT's short term assets ($1.1B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($1.6B).

Long Term Liabilities: ADT's short term assets ($1.1B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($12.2B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ADT's net debt to equity ratio (297.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: ADT's debt to equity ratio has increased from 266.2% to 298.3% over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Whilst unprofitable ADT has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if it maintains its current positive free cash flow level.

Forecast Cash Runway: ADT is unprofitable but has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years, due to free cash flow being positive and growing by 12.4% per year.

Dividend

What is ADT current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

2.04%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ADT's dividend (2.04%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.54%).

High Dividend: ADT's dividend (2.04%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.05%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, ADT has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ADT has only been paying a dividend for 4 years, and since then payments have not increased.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: ADT is paying a dividend but the company is unprofitable.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (321.2%), ADT's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Consumer Services industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Jim DeVries (58 yo)

3.42yrs

Tenure

US$7,479,792

Compensation

Mr. James D. DeVries, also known as Jim, has been the President at ASG Intermediate Holding Corp. since September 2017. Mr. DeVries has been Chief Executive Officer of ADT Inc. since December 1, 2018 and P...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Jim's total compensation ($USD7.48M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD8.23M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Jim's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: ADT's management team is not considered experienced ( 1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: ADT's board of directors are considered experienced (5.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 9.2%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/16 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/16 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31