Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) - Share price, News & Analysis

BABA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

BABA Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 26.2% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 15.17% per year

Risk Analysis

Profit margins (15.3%) are lower than last year (22.6%)

Alibaba Group Holding Competitors

Amazon.com

NasdaqGS:AMZN

US$1.8t

JD.com

NasdaqGS:JD

US$136.5b

Pinduoduo

NasdaqGS:PDD

US$90.2b

Etsy

NasdaqGS:ETSY

US$35.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Alibaba Group Holding
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$131.61
52 Week High	US$274.29
52 Week Low	US$130.55
Beta	0.86
1 Month Change	-20.21%
3 Month Change	-21.19%
1 Year Change	-50.03%
3 Year Change	-19.62%
5 Year Change	44.64%
Change since IPO	40.18%

Recent News & Updates

Nov 28

Alibaba Group: The CCP Might Back Off BABA, Strong Margin Of Safety

Alibaba has been experiencing a decline of stock value since late 2020 and the share price is currently at a 52-week low of $133. Major reasons for this were issues with Chinese regulatory authorities which escalated with the company’s founder's, Jack Ma, statements condemning the Chinese government. The issues seem to be appropriately addressed and the overall relationship of the company and the government seems substantially better now. The all-time low price is an amazing opportunity for investors looking for a long-term return as the stock is assuming a bullish trend.

Nov 25

We Think You Can Look Beyond Alibaba Group Holding's (NYSE:BABA) Lackluster Earnings

The market for Alibaba Group Holding Limited's ( NYSE:BABA ) shares didn't move much after it posted weak earnings...

Nov 21

Alibaba: Charlie Munger Is Wrong Again

Not all of Alibaba’s risks have materialized to this day. As Beijing strengthens its grip over the entire Chinese tech sector, there’s a high possibility that the state will continue to be involved in Alibaba’s affairs in the foreseeable future. Despite being an undervalued stock in comparison to its Western peers, Alibaba will continue to be uninvestable for non-Chinese nationals in the long run.

Nov 19

Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) is still Attractively Valued but Risks are Increasing

Alibaba Group Holding Limited’s (NYSE:BABA) share price has come under pressure once again since the company released 2nd quarter earnings that fell short of expectations. The stock price has been under pressure for the last 12 months due to the regulatory pressure in China, but the share was widely considered a bargain prior to these results. Investors are now questioning Alibaba’s growth outlook and how it relates to the valuation.

Shareholder Returns

	BABA	US Online Retail	US Market
7D	-3.7%	-1.3%	-0.9%
1Y	-50.0%	-8.4%	23.3%

Return vs Industry: BABA underperformed the US Online Retail industry which returned -8.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BABA underperformed the US Market which returned 23.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BABA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BABA volatility
BABA Average Weekly Movement	6.6%
Online Retail Industry Average Movement	8.9%
Market Average Movement	6.0%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	15.0%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.3%

Stable Share Price: BABA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BABA's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1999	258,578	Daniel Zhang	https://www.alibabagroup.com

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The company operates Taobao Marketplace, a social commerce platform; Tmall, a third-party online and mobile commerce platform for brands and retailers; Alimama, a monetization platform; 1688.com and Alibaba.com, which are online wholesale marketplaces; AliExpress, a retail marketplace; Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz that are e-commerce platforms; and Tmall Global and Kaola, which are import e-commerce platforms.

Alibaba Group Holding Fundamentals Summary

How do Alibaba Group Holding's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BABA fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥2.28t
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥124.46b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥814.91b

18.3x

P/E Ratio

2.8x

P/S Ratio

Is BABA overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BABA income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥814.91b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥498.88b
Gross Profit	CN¥316.03b
Expenses	CN¥191.57b
Earnings	CN¥124.46b

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	45.91
Gross Margin	38.78%
Net Profit Margin	15.27%
Debt/Equity Ratio	13.8%

How did BABA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Alibaba Group Holding undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

26.2%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: BABA ($131.61) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($178.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BABA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: BABA is good value based on its PE Ratio (18.3x) compared to the US Online Retail industry average (23x).

PE vs Market: BABA is poor value based on its PE Ratio (18.3x) compared to the US market (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: BABA is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.2x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: BABA is good value based on its PB Ratio (2.4x) compared to the US Online Retail industry average (4.1x).

Future Growth

How is Alibaba Group Holding forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 52 analysts?

15.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BABA's forecast earnings growth (15.2% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: BABA's earnings (15.2% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BABA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BABA's revenue (15.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (10.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BABA's revenue (15.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BABA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.2%).

Past Performance

How has Alibaba Group Holding performed over the past 5 years?

28.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BABA has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: BABA's current net profit margins (15.3%) are lower than last year (22.6%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BABA's earnings have grown significantly by 28% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BABA's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: BABA had negative earnings growth (-5.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Online Retail industry average (78.8%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: BABA's Return on Equity (10.6%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Alibaba Group Holding's financial position?

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BABA's short term assets (CN¥638.0B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥387.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: BABA's short term assets (CN¥638.0B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥239.9B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BABA has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: BABA's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 30.5% to 13.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: BABA's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (129.7%).

Interest Coverage: BABA earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Alibaba Group Holding current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

0.006%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BABA's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BABA's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BABA's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BABA's dividend payments have been increasing.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of BABA's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Retail industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Daniel Zhang (49 yo)

6.5yrs

Tenure

Mr. Yong Zhang, also known as Daniel, is Director at Beijing Xiaoju Science & Technology Co, Ltd. since April 2018. Mr. Zhang is Director at Didi Global Inc since April 2018.He is a Director at Didi Chuxi...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BABA's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: BABA's board of directors are considered experienced (6.8 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2021/11/30 00:25
End of Day Share Price	2021/11/29 00:00
Earnings	2021/09/30
Annual Earnings	2021/03/31

Market Cap

7D

1Y

Updated

Data