Alibaba Group Holding Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Alibaba Group Holding has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 7%, while the Multiline Retail industry saw earnings growing at 18.9% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 5.4% per year. Alibaba Group Holding's return on equity is 6.3%, and it has net margins of 7%.
Key information
7.03%
Earnings growth rate
11.06%
EPS growth rate
| Multiline Retail Industry Growth | 12.60% |
| Revenue growth rate | 5.43% |
| Return on equity | 6.30% |
| Net Margin | 7.02% |
| Last Earnings Update | 30 Jun 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Sep 09
Alibaba: Decoding The AI Pivot Beyond Insider Signals
Summary Alibaba is aggressively pivoting from mature e-commerce to a full-stack AI and cloud strategy, backed by significant insider buying. AI Cloud and Compute Services revenue surged 45% YoY, with adjusted EBITA up 133% to $830 million, highlighting strong early returns from AI investments. Heavy AI capex—up 75% YoY—will likely keep near-term cash flow negative, but management targets breakeven in three years and RMB 100 billion external cloud revenue by 2030. Intensifying domestic competition poses material threats, but with consensus Strong Buy and $188 PT, patient investors may be rewarded if execution delivers. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Sep 08
BABA: AI Cloud Capex And Apple Partnership Will Drive Future Re Rating
The updated analyst price target framework for Alibaba Group Holding reflects a modest reduction in fair value to about $233 from roughly $240, as analysts factor in the recent $10.2b equity raise alongside higher projected cloud driven revenue growth, margins, and a lower assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Alibaba Group Holding highlights a mix of valuation resets and renewed optimism around execution, especially in cloud and AI.
Narrative Update • Aug 25
BABA: AI Cloud Pivot And Hong Kong Share Sale Will Drive Repricing
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Alibaba Group Holding to $186.63 from $191.56, reflecting slightly higher perceived risk, a more moderate future P/E of about 22.6x, and updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and the recent $10.3b Hong Kong share placement, which is seen as both dilutive in the near term and supportive of funding and balance sheet flexibility. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary on Alibaba Group Holding shows a mix of optimism about growth drivers such as cloud and AI partnerships, and caution around capital needs, regulation in China, and consumer demand trends.
New Narrative • Aug 01
One of the Most Mispriced Technology Ecosystems in the Market
Alibaba is one of the few large-cap companies in the world where there appears to be a meaningful gap between market perception and the underlying value of its assets. At current prices, many investors still view Alibaba primarily as a Chinese e-commerce company.Narrative Update • Jul 17
BABA: Cloud And AI Partnerships Will Define Future Re Rating Potential
Alibaba Group Holding's updated analyst price target framework points to a lower fair value estimate of about $240, reflecting a higher discount rate alongside stronger modeled revenue growth, profit margins, and a reduced future P/E, as analysts factor in recent cloud and AI developments as well as shifting views on China e-commerce demand. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Alibaba Group Holding highlights a mix of higher conviction on the cloud and AI opportunity alongside more cautious views on China e-commerce demand.
Narrative Update • Jul 03
BABA: Cloud And AI Expansion Will Reshape Long-Term Earnings Profile
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Alibaba Group Holding to about $140.59 from $146.95 as they factor in softer revenue growth assumptions, lower profit margins and a higher discount rate, while also acknowledging continued support from higher expected future P/E multiples and ongoing interest in the company's cloud and AI businesses. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Alibaba Group Holding shows a mix of optimism around cloud and AI alongside more cautious views on core e-commerce and broader China consumer trends.Narrative Update • Jun 19
BABA: Cloud And AI Reinvention Will Drive Future Multiple Repricing
Alibaba Group Holding’s updated analyst price target edges slightly higher as analysts factor in ongoing heavy investment, a modestly lower fair value estimate near $191.56, and a somewhat richer future P/E of about 23x, supported by continued strength in the cloud and AI businesses. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Alibaba Group Holding highlights a cluster of upward price target revisions following the latest quarterly results, with analysts weighing heavy reinvestment in cloud and AI against near term pressure on profitability.Narrative Update • Jun 03
BABA: Agentic AI Cloud And Domestic Chips Will Drive Future Repricing
Alibaba Group Holding's updated analyst price target has moved higher to reflect a fair value estimate of about $192 per share, as analysts highlight stronger modeled revenue growth and profit margins supported by accelerating cloud and AI momentum, even as they assume a higher discount rate and a more conservative future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts are lifting price targets into the US$185 to US$205 range, which reflects stronger confidence in Alibaba's ability to execute on its cloud and AI roadmap despite a higher discount rate and more conservative P/E assumptions in some models.Narrative Update • Apr 23
BABA: Agentic AI And Chip Access Will Drive Future Cloud Monetization
The analyst price target for Alibaba Group Holding has been trimmed by about $1 in response to recent Street research, which reflects slightly lower assumed profit margins and a modestly higher discount rate, while revenue growth expectations and future P/E inputs have been adjusted only marginally. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Alibaba shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings in different directions.Narrative Update • Apr 09
BABA: AI Agents And Chips Will Drive Future Cloud Monetization
Alibaba Group Holding's fair value estimate has been adjusted slightly higher to about $189.70 per share, as analysts factor in updated assumptions on growth, margins, and future P/E, while also incorporating a recent wave of mixed price target changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Alibaba Group Holding points to a split view, with several firms revising price targets and ratings while reassessing execution, growth priorities, and balance sheet trends.Narrative Update • Mar 25
BABA: AI Cloud And Chip Investments Will Drive Future Earnings Power
The updated analyst price target for Alibaba Group Holding edges lower to reflect slightly softer margin assumptions and a reduced fair value estimate of about $190. Analysts are balancing optimism around higher modeled revenue growth and a modestly higher future P/E with recent target cuts and downgrades across several research desks.Narrative Update • Mar 11
BABA: AI Cloud And Chip Investments Will Support Long Term Upside
The analyst price target for Alibaba Group Holding has inched higher to $199.61 from $198.28, with analysts pointing to Alibaba's focus on AI driven cloud monetization, its inclusion on a major APAC conviction list, and ongoing debates around margins and capital intensity as key factors shaping their updated view. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Alibaba highlights a split view, with some firms adding the stock to high conviction lists while others move to more cautious ratings.Narrative Update • Feb 25
BABA: AI Cloud Monetization And Chips Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Alibaba Group Holding slightly higher to about $198 per share. This reflects updated assumptions for AI focused cloud investment, modest tweaks to revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and a mix of recent rating downgrades and upgrades that highlight both rising capital intensity and ongoing monetization efforts.Narrative Update • Feb 09
BABA: AI And Cloud Expansion Will Drive Future Earnings Power
Analysts have nudged their price target framework for Alibaba Group Holding slightly higher to about $198 per share, reflecting updated assumptions that include modestly adjusted revenue growth, profit margin expectations, discount rate and future P/E, informed by mixed but generally constructive recent analyst commentary on the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Alibaba reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with analysts reassessing both growth drivers and execution risks across the cloud and core retail businesses.Narrative Update • Jan 25
BABA: Cloud And AI Execution Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Earnings Power
Alibaba's fair value estimate edges higher to about $196.46, with analysts pointing to stronger modeled cloud and AI demand, along with updated price targets that reflect both rising capital expenditure in cloud and more moderate growth in retail revenue. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Alibaba highlights a split view, with some bullish analysts focusing on cloud and AI execution, while more cautious voices focus on spending levels and retail trends.Narrative Update • Jan 11
BABA: Cloud AI And Consumer Apps Will Build Stronger Long-Term Earnings Power
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Alibaba Group Holding to $195 from about $198, as slightly higher discount rates, marginally softer long term growth and profit assumptions, and a modestly lower future P/E expectation are weighed against mixed but generally constructive Street price target revisions that reflect both rising cloud investment needs and more measured retail momentum. Analyst Commentary Street research on Alibaba has become more mixed, with both bullish and bearish analysts adjusting their price targets and assumptions in response to recent results, cloud trends, and spending plans.Narrative Update • Dec 21
BABA: Cloud AI Monetization Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Earnings Power
Analysts made a marginal upward revision to their fair value estimate for Alibaba Group Holding to approximately $198 per share, reflecting slightly stronger long term cloud and artificial intelligence monetization prospects that more than offset modestly reduced revenue and profit forecasts tied to quick commerce and customer management headwinds. Analyst Commentary Street research on Alibaba remains broadly constructive, with a series of upward price target revisions anchored in improving cloud and artificial intelligence monetization, partly offset by concerns around near term profitability in quick commerce and customer management revenue.Narrative Update • Dec 07
BABA: Cloud And AI Expansion Will Drive Higher Quality Earnings Ahead
Analysts have nudged our Alibaba fair value estimate slightly higher to approximately $198 per share, reflecting expectations for faster revenue growth driven by strengthening cloud and AI demand. These expectations more than offset modestly lower margin assumptions and a marginally higher discount rate.Narrative Update • Nov 23
BABA: Accelerating Cloud And AI Expansion Will Support Meaningful Medium-Term Upside
Alibaba Group Holding's analyst price target has been raised modestly to approximately $196.83, reflecting growing confidence from analysts as well as broad optimism over accelerating cloud revenue and continued advancements in artificial intelligence offerings. Analyst Commentary Recent research activity on Alibaba Group Holding reveals a blend of optimism around core business strength and innovation, alongside measured caution regarding valuation levels and competitive challenges.Narrative Update • Nov 08
BABA: AI Cloud Momentum Will Drive Sustained Upside Over Coming Quarters
Alibaba Group Holding’s fair value estimate has been raised slightly to $196.82 per share from $195.74. Analysts cite continued momentum in AI-driven cloud revenue growth and expanding valuations across its core businesses.Narrative Update • Oct 25
Cloud, AI And Quick Commerce Expansion Will Drive Next Phase Forward
Alibaba Group Holding's fair value estimate has been raised slightly to $195.74 from $193.43. Analysts cite accelerating cloud and AI-driven growth, along with an improved profit outlook, as key reasons for higher price targets across the Street.Narrative Update • Oct 11
AI, Cloud And Quick Commerce Will Power Digital Progress
Alibaba Group Holding's analyst price target has been raised from approximately $180 to $193, as analysts point to robust progress in AI and cloud segments, improved company guidance, and increasing investor optimism as reasons for the upward revision. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst coverage of Alibaba Group Holding reflects building optimism around the company’s growth trajectory, particularly in its cloud and artificial intelligence businesses.
Narrative Update • Oct 02
Alibaba's 5-year outlook points to a fair value of $254-$318 in the market
“Deeply Undervalued Tech Giant” → Reflects Alibaba’s strong fundamentals, scale, and profitability, contrasted with its current price well below intrinsic estimates ($318 fair value, $254 risk-adjusted).Narrative Update • Sep 27
AI, Cloud And Quick Commerce Will Power Digital Progress
Analysts have raised Alibaba’s price target from $165.48 to $179.82, citing accelerating AI cloud demand, robust cloud and e-commerce segment growth, and strengthening new initiatives as key drivers. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are raising cloud revenue and capex forecasts in response to strong traffic and activity observed at Alibaba's Apsara Conference, alongside management’s expectations for a tenfold increase in data center capacity to serve accelerating AI cloud demand.Analysis Article • Sep 24
Alibaba Group Holding Limited's (NYSE:BABA) Shares Climb 33% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up
Despite an already strong run, Alibaba Group Holding Limited ( NYSE:BABA ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of...Narrative Update • Sep 12
AI, Cloud And Quick Commerce Will Power Digital Progress
Analysts have raised Alibaba’s price target to $165.48, citing accelerating cloud and AI-driven revenue growth, improved execution and synergies in quick commerce, margin expansion, and diversification into new verticals, all underpinning stronger long-term fundamentals. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite accelerating cloud revenue growth, particularly with robust AI-related and external revenue contributions, solidifying Alibaba’s position as China’s leading GenAI and cloud infrastructure provider.
New Narrative • Jun 02
Alibaba's Fair Value may Suggests Growth Despite Trade and Regulatory Risks but...
Base FCF: $15B (normalized annual free cash flow)New Narrative • May 01
AI, Cloud And Quick Commerce Will Power Digital Progress
Key Takeaways Investment in AI, cloud, and quick commerce aims to drive long-term revenue and margin growth despite near-term profit pressure from elevated spending. Enhanced integration and partnerships are expanding Alibaba's enterprise footprint, boosting user engagement, and strengthening its competitive position in digital services.Seeking Alpha • Apr 29
Alibaba Could Be In Trouble (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Alibaba's 2025 AI-driven share price surge is overshadowed by the mushrooming U.S. vs. China trade war, risking a Chinese recession and impacting financial results. Bearish technical indicators, like declining Accumulation/Distribution Line and Ease of Movement readings, suggest large investors are selling and buying interest is waning. The outside risk of a U.S. delisting further complicates BABA's outlook, making a Sell/Avoid rating prudent until clearer economic signals emerge. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 22
Alibaba: The Tariff War Can Deliver Surprising Benefits
Summary Alibaba stock has seen major swings in YTD but it is still up by almost 30%. Alibaba could see tailwinds due to a better regulatory and fiscal environment as Chinese government tries to counter challenges due to tariffs. Rapid international expansion could increase the revenue share from outside China to over 40% by 2030, which should reduce geopolitical risks and increase the growth runway. Alibaba continues to develop AI tools at a rapid pace and Alibaba Cloud could corner a big chunk of the AI business within China. The Wall Street ratings for Alibaba continue to be very strong and the stock is trading at only 10.7 times the earnings estimate for fiscal year ending Mar 2026. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 14
Delisting Deja Vu: Tariffs Are Putting Alibaba's Valuation At Risk Again
Summary The escalating U.S.-China tariff standoff, which has pushed reciprocal levies to an unprecedented 145%, poses immediate and material risks to Alibaba's growth and earnings outlook. Beyond the fundamentals, non-quantifiable risks are re-emerging, including the specter of being delisted from the NYSE - a threat thought to be resolved, but now back in focus. The combination threatens both fundamental deterioration and risk premium expansion, which could further compress Alibaba's valuation prospects from current levels. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 20
Alibaba: I Was Wrong About Tariffs And AI (Rating Upgrade)
Summary I am upgrading Alibaba stock from sell to buy due to its strong appreciation and reevaluation of trade war and AI market challenges. Despite initial concerns, Alibaba's AI and cloud investments, along with China's protective stance, present significant growth opportunities in the domestic market. Alibaba's latest earnings exceeded expectations, with notable growth in cloud and digital commerce, driven by AI-related products. Financially, Alibaba boasts the highest EBITDA and net income margins among peers, with a PEG ratio suggesting a 35% upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 05
Alibaba's Bullish Momentum Could Accelerate
Summary Alibaba stock has shown a strong bullish momentum in YTD as many other big tech companies in US falter. The new AI tools launched by Alibaba might be impressive, but the real impact will be when they are adequately monetized on Alibaba’s platform. The Cloud segment has reported 33% YoY growth in EBITA with annualized EBITDA of over $1.5 billion, but there is still room for more margin expansion in this segment. The international segment showed 32% YoY growth and its revenue share is 14%, which increases the geographic diversification of the company. Alibaba is expected to deliver 12%-14% EPS growth in the next two fiscal years, which is quite good when we look at the modest forward PE multiple of 11.6 for fiscal year ending Mar 2027. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 26
Alibaba's Time Is Finally Here
Summary Alibaba's Q3 FY 2025 earnings exceeded expectations, with net income of 48.945 billion yuan and operating income margins reaching 16.91%, indicating strong financial performance. The Cloud Intelligence Group and AI segment saw significant growth, driven by continually increasing AI adoption in China, positioning Alibaba to benefit from this trend. Alibaba's international segment (AIDC) continues to be a key driver of revenue growth. It is likely to turn profitable in two quarters, from an adjusted EBITDA margin of -13%. Valuation analysis suggests Alibaba is undervalued, with a potential upside of 18% to 20%, supported by historical and comparative metrics, and technical analysis indicates a breakout. I recommend a strong buy for Alibaba with a price target of $153, expecting the stock to reach this within 6-9 months, driven by AI and cloud investments. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Alibaba Group Holding makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 26 | 1,044,971 | 73,325 | 277,862 | 74,061 |
| 31 Mar 26 | 1,023,670 | 105,904 | 278,105 | 66,533 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 1,016,744 | 92,810 | 261,251 | 62,510 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 1,012,055 | 125,433 | 237,633 | 61,692 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 1,000,763 | 148,317 | 206,005 | 58,779 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 996,347 | 129,470 | 188,260 | 57,151 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 981,767 | 120,358 | 184,595 | 56,302 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 961,961 | 85,846 | 172,968 | 55,128 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 950,248 | 69,678 | 165,613 | 55,164 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 941,168 | 79,741 | 157,126 | 52,256 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 927,494 | 99,987 | 152,044 | 52,051 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 914,902 | 132,369 | 147,955 | 52,084 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 897,288 | 84,102 | 146,012 | 53,016 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 868,687 | 72,509 | 145,679 | 56,744 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 864,539 | 32,752 | 142,531 | 53,808 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 859,363 | 13,629 | 146,747 | 55,992 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 852,877 | 39,557 | 151,528 | 56,139 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 853,062 | 61,959 | 151,721 | 55,465 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 836,405 | 72,721 | 151,765 | 57,823 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 814,909 | 124,456 | 140,629 | 55,725 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 769,278 | 147,858 | 132,230 | 59,673 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 717,289 | 150,308 | 118,515 | 57,236 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 644,208 | 158,949 | 103,906 | 54,521 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 584,580 | 131,831 | 93,086 | 51,991 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 548,538 | 175,602 | 82,341 | 43,684 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 509,711 | 149,263 | 78,870 | 43,080 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 488,895 | 171,931 | 74,402 | 41,152 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 444,717 | 152,674 | 69,144 | 38,976 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 410,848 | 100,167 | 64,442 | 36,403 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 376,844 | 87,600 | 62,990 | 37,435 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 345,278 | 69,331 | 59,600 | 35,462 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 311,028 | 60,352 | 54,757 | 32,850 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 281,002 | 57,987 | 50,577 | 29,568 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 250,266 | 63,985 | 43,540 | 22,754 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 226,913 | 67,071 | 39,074 | 20,586 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 197,133 | 60,853 | 33,737 | 18,717 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 176,303 | 50,808 | 30,725 | 17,768 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 158,273 | 43,675 | 28,553 | 17,060 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 143,878 | 38,393 | 26,021 | 16,115 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 125,173 | 33,036 | 24,385 | 15,444 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 113,052 | 48,167 | 22,384 | 14,535 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 101,143 | 71,460 | 20,512 | 13,788 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 94,384 | 68,988 | 20,326 | 13,257 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 86,020 | 62,426 | 19,625 | 12,591 |
Quality Earnings: BABA has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: BABA's current net profit margins (7%) are lower than last year (14.8%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: BABA's earnings have grown by 7% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: BABA's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: BABA had negative earnings growth (-50.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Multiline Retail industry average (18.4%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: BABA's Return on Equity (6.3%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/14 11:26 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Alibaba Group Holding Limited is covered by 81 analysts. 43 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Tianli Wen | Aletheia Analyst Network Limited |
| Zixiao Yang | Arete Research Services LLP |
| Richard Kramer | Arete Research Services LLP |