We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Alibaba Group Holding Valuation

Is BABA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BABA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BABA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10.4x
PEG Ratio4.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BABA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BABA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.3x
PDD Pinduoduo
28x16.3%US$115.2b
ETSY Etsy
n/a62.8%US$16.9b
AMZN Amazon.com
80.3x54.7%US$921.7b
VIPS Vipshop Holdings
10.1x3.3%US$7.9b
BABA Alibaba Group Holding
123.4x29.2%US$249.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BABA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (123.4x) compared to the peer average (23.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BABA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Online Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a45.7%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BABA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (123.4x) compared to the US Online Retail industry average (28x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BABA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BABA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio123.4x
Fair PE Ratio38.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BABA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (123.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.8x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BABA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BABA ($91.34) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($118.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BABA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BABA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$91.34
US$138.04
+51.1%
20.3%US$223.08US$72.14n/a41
Dec ’23US$85.94
US$134.23
+56.2%
20.2%US$216.43US$69.99n/a41
Nov ’23US$65.86
US$133.98
+103.4%
20.3%US$214.95US$69.08n/a41
Oct ’23US$79.99
US$145.79
+82.3%
15.2%US$220.63US$110.00n/a41
Sep ’23US$93.71
US$151.07
+61.2%
14.0%US$225.54US$112.37n/a42
Aug ’23US$90.34
US$154.66
+71.2%
13.9%US$229.17US$114.63n/a40
Jul ’23US$116.00
US$152.75
+31.7%
15.2%US$229.94US$114.30n/a40
Jun ’23US$93.38
US$152.80
+63.6%
15.1%US$231.80US$114.75n/a40
May ’23US$97.09
US$158.49
+63.2%
17.7%US$265.59US$72.17n/a40
Apr ’23US$110.20
US$172.94
+56.9%
22.2%US$304.03US$64.98n/a41
Mar ’23US$107.09
US$179.41
+67.5%
21.3%US$306.46US$130.11n/a44
Feb ’23US$127.22
US$191.47
+50.5%
18.9%US$304.11US$139.82n/a44
Jan ’23US$118.79
US$202.32
+70.3%
18.2%US$303.75US$140.08n/a46
Dec ’22US$122.49
US$207.91
+69.7%
17.4%US$303.94US$144.84US$85.9445
Nov ’22US$170.17
US$245.10
+44.0%
17.7%US$339.28US$144.09US$65.8646
Oct ’22US$144.20
US$252.56
+75.1%
17.4%US$336.72US$143.00US$79.9946
Sep ’22US$173.28
US$275.29
+58.9%
11.1%US$340.38US$192.27US$93.7146
Aug ’22US$195.19
US$287.79
+47.4%
10.6%US$352.36US$192.38US$90.3447
Jul ’22US$221.87
US$292.30
+31.7%
9.0%US$353.72US$228.45US$116.0047
Jun ’22US$219.48
US$296.91
+35.3%
8.8%US$355.64US$231.59US$93.3846
May ’22US$230.95
US$316.87
+37.2%
8.0%US$390.03US$250.19US$97.0945
Apr ’22US$224.36
US$321.63
+43.4%
8.3%US$405.52US$246.75US$110.2042
Mar ’22US$241.69
US$325.87
+34.8%
7.8%US$395.00US$250.27US$107.0944
Feb ’22US$264.69
US$328.97
+24.3%
8.2%US$385.93US$250.49US$127.2246
Jan ’22US$232.73
US$346.23
+48.8%
7.4%US$394.13US$272.21US$118.7948
Dec ’21US$264.01
US$345.02
+30.7%
7.0%US$395.31US$270.00US$122.4948

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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