Alibaba Group Holding Limited

NYSE:BABA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$192.5b

Alibaba Group Holding Valuation

Is BABA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BABA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$133.51
Fair Value
36.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
39
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: BABA ($85.12) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($133.51)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BABA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BABA?

Key metric: As BABA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BABA. This is calculated by dividing BABA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BABA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.4x
EarningsCN¥85.85b
Market CapCN¥1.41t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BABA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BABA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.2x
JD JD.com
11.8x9.0%US$56.5b
MELI MercadoLibre
64.8x23.8%US$93.1b
PDD PDD Holdings
9.9x12.4%US$146.6b
CPNG Coupang
38.5x30.6%US$39.7b
BABA Alibaba Group Holding
16.4x15.6%US$192.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BABA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the peer average (31.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BABA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Multiline Retail Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BABA 16.4xIndustry Avg. 21.6xNo. of Companies4PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BABA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (21.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BABA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BABA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.4x
Fair PE Ratio28x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BABA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BABA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$85.12
US$119.94
+40.9%
11.9%US$144.61US$85.42n/a39
Jan ’26US$84.79
US$121.34
+43.1%
12.0%US$144.48US$85.44n/a40
Dec ’25US$87.37
US$120.62
+38.1%
13.0%US$145.80US$84.83n/a43
Nov ’25US$97.58
US$120.31
+23.3%
13.5%US$148.11US$86.16n/a44
Oct ’25US$112.74
US$109.21
-3.1%
13.2%US$135.94US$80.08n/a44
Sep ’25US$83.34
US$108.18
+29.8%
12.2%US$131.43US$80.58n/a44
Aug ’25US$77.98
US$105.27
+35.0%
13.1%US$134.83US$80.10n/a43
Jul ’25US$72.18
US$105.48
+46.1%
13.3%US$134.53US$79.62n/a42
Jun ’25US$78.34
US$105.67
+34.9%
13.3%US$134.95US$79.86n/a42
May ’25US$75.51
US$104.94
+39.0%
13.8%US$133.43US$79.97n/a43
Apr ’25US$73.37
US$106.19
+44.7%
14.3%US$135.75US$79.63n/a42
Mar ’25US$74.62
US$108.21
+45.0%
15.7%US$147.62US$79.97n/a43
Feb ’25US$72.46
US$114.36
+57.8%
15.9%US$149.45US$81.60n/a43
Jan ’25US$77.51
US$125.05
+61.3%
16.7%US$160.29US$82.08US$84.7943
Dec ’24US$73.99
US$127.15
+71.9%
15.2%US$160.28US$88.26US$87.3743
Nov ’24US$82.48
US$138.14
+67.5%
13.7%US$186.94US$98.70US$97.5843
Oct ’24US$86.74
US$140.31
+61.8%
13.3%US$184.86US$98.93US$112.7443
Sep ’24US$95.01
US$141.37
+48.8%
13.3%US$185.93US$99.50US$83.3444
Aug ’24US$100.10
US$139.06
+38.9%
14.0%US$183.42US$93.03US$77.9844
Jul ’24US$83.35
US$137.59
+65.1%
14.4%US$179.32US$91.73US$72.1844
Jun ’24US$83.00
US$140.48
+69.3%
12.7%US$179.51US$96.40US$78.3444
May ’24US$84.16
US$145.67
+73.1%
13.6%US$219.19US$98.99US$75.5144
Apr ’24US$102.18
US$146.36
+43.2%
13.9%US$220.01US$99.59US$73.3743
Mar ’24US$89.95
US$146.59
+63.0%
15.4%US$221.24US$73.45US$74.6242
Feb ’24US$112.82
US$145.78
+29.2%
17.2%US$220.66US$74.69US$72.4642
Jan ’24US$88.09
US$138.50
+57.2%
20.1%US$224.09US$72.47US$77.5142
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 39 Analysts
US$119.94
Fair Value
29.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
39
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/21 06:39
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/17 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is covered by 100 analysts. 49 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Zixiao YangArete Research Services LLP
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP
James KelleherArgus Research Company