Alibaba Group Holding Valuation
Is BABA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
6/6Valuation Score 6/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of BABA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: BABA ($86.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($170.95)
Significantly Below Fair Value: BABA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BABA?
Key metric: As BABA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is BABA's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 16.7x |
| Earnings | CN¥85.85b |
| Market Cap | CN¥1.44t |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.4x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 7.9x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does BABA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 33.1x | ||
PDD PDD Holdings | 11.9x | 17.4% | US$163.4b |
MELI MercadoLibre | 68.1x | 28.0% | US$97.2b |
JD JD.com | 10.6x | 8.2% | US$51.0b |
CPNG Coupang | 41.8x | 30.1% | US$43.5b |
BABA Alibaba Group Holding | 16.7x | 14.9% | US$198.2b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BABA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the peer average (33.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does BABA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Multiline Retail Industry?
| 1 Company | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Company | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BABA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (19.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is BABA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 16.7x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 27.5x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BABA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.5x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$86.77 | US$120.17 +38.5% | 13.0% | US$145.53 | US$84.59 | n/a | 43 |
| Nov ’25 | US$97.58 | US$120.31 +23.3% | 13.5% | US$148.11 | US$86.07 | n/a | 44 |
| Oct ’25 | US$112.74 | US$109.72 -2.7% | 13.1% | US$135.94 | US$80.08 | n/a | 44 |
| Sep ’25 | US$83.34 | US$108.18 +29.8% | 12.2% | US$131.43 | US$80.58 | n/a | 44 |
| Aug ’25 | US$77.98 | US$105.26 +35.0% | 13.1% | US$134.83 | US$80.10 | n/a | 43 |
| Jul ’25 | US$72.18 | US$105.48 +46.1% | 13.3% | US$134.53 | US$79.62 | n/a | 42 |
| Jun ’25 | US$78.34 | US$105.66 +34.9% | 13.3% | US$134.95 | US$79.86 | n/a | 42 |
| May ’25 | US$75.51 | US$104.94 +39.0% | 13.8% | US$133.43 | US$79.97 | n/a | 43 |
| Apr ’25 | US$73.37 | US$106.19 +44.7% | 14.3% | US$135.75 | US$79.63 | n/a | 42 |
| Mar ’25 | US$74.62 | US$108.21 +45.0% | 15.7% | US$147.62 | US$79.97 | n/a | 43 |
| Feb ’25 | US$72.46 | US$114.36 +57.8% | 15.9% | US$149.45 | US$81.60 | n/a | 43 |
| Jan ’25 | US$77.51 | US$125.05 +61.3% | 16.7% | US$160.29 | US$82.08 | n/a | 43 |
| Dec ’24 | US$73.99 | US$127.15 +71.9% | 15.2% | US$160.28 | US$88.26 | n/a | 43 |
| Nov ’24 | US$82.48 | US$138.14 +67.5% | 13.7% | US$186.94 | US$98.70 | US$97.58 | 43 |
| Oct ’24 | US$86.74 | US$140.31 +61.8% | 13.3% | US$184.86 | US$98.93 | US$112.74 | 43 |
| Sep ’24 | US$95.01 | US$141.37 +48.8% | 13.3% | US$185.93 | US$99.50 | US$83.34 | 44 |
| Aug ’24 | US$100.10 | US$139.06 +38.9% | 14.0% | US$183.42 | US$93.03 | US$77.98 | 44 |
| Jul ’24 | US$83.35 | US$137.59 +65.1% | 14.4% | US$179.32 | US$91.73 | US$72.18 | 44 |
| Jun ’24 | US$83.00 | US$140.48 +69.3% | 12.7% | US$179.51 | US$96.40 | US$78.34 | 44 |
| May ’24 | US$84.16 | US$145.67 +73.1% | 13.6% | US$219.19 | US$98.99 | US$75.51 | 44 |
| Apr ’24 | US$102.18 | US$146.36 +43.2% | 13.9% | US$220.01 | US$99.59 | US$73.37 | 43 |
| Mar ’24 | US$89.95 | US$146.59 +63.0% | 15.4% | US$221.24 | US$73.45 | US$74.62 | 42 |
| Feb ’24 | US$112.82 | US$145.78 +29.2% | 17.2% | US$220.66 | US$74.69 | US$72.46 | 42 |
| Jan ’24 | US$88.09 | US$138.50 +57.2% | 20.1% | US$224.09 | US$72.47 | US$77.51 | 42 |
| Dec ’23 | US$85.94 | US$133.99 +55.9% | 20.0% | US$216.42 | US$69.99 | US$73.99 | 42 |
| Nov ’23 | US$65.86 | US$133.99 +103.4% | 20.3% | US$214.96 | US$69.09 | US$82.48 | 41 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.
Discover undervalued companies
Frasers Group
UK£3.2b
Frasers Group Plc, together with its subsidiaries, retails sports and leisure clothing, footwear, homeware, furniture, sports equipment and bicycles, accessories, and apparel through department stores, shops, and online in the United Kingdom, Europe, the United States, Asia, Oceania, and internationally.
SDIP.F
UK£9.72
7D
0%
1Y
n/a
Inchcape
UK£3.0b
Operates as an automotive distributor and retailer.
IHCP.F
UK£9.26
7D
0%
1Y
13.2%
Urban Outfitters
US$3.5b
Engages in the retail and wholesale of general consumer products.
URBN
US$36.91
7D
-6.0%
1Y
16.0%