Alibaba Group Holding Limited

NYSE:BABA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$191.2b

Alibaba Group Holding Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Alibaba Group Holding is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 14.9% and 7.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 17.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.3% in 3 years.

Key information

14.9%

Earnings growth rate

17.7%

EPS growth rate

Multiline Retail earnings growth19.0%
Revenue growth rate7.3%
Future return on equity10.3%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated18 Dec 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Alibaba: A Giant In Transition

Dec 20

Alibaba: Don't Be Fooled By The Naysayers

Dec 11

Is Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) A Risky Investment?

Dec 02
Is Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) A Risky Investment?

Alibaba: A Bold Move Amid Mounting Challenges

Dec 01

Alibaba: Ongoing Restructuring Is A Positive, But Not Enough

Nov 25

Alibaba: The Market's Concerns Are Justified, And Here's Why

Nov 18

Alibaba Could Be A Surprise Winner As New Tailwinds Emerge

Nov 11

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) Shares Could Be 42% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Nov 03
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) Shares Could Be 42% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Alibaba: Time To Bail Out

Oct 22

Returns On Capital At Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) Have Hit The Brakes

Oct 18
Returns On Capital At Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) Have Hit The Brakes

Alibaba: The Early Stage Of Returning Bullish Sentiment?

Oct 11

Alibaba Stock: Time To Temper Your Enthusiasm

Oct 03

Alibaba's Savior Is Not Chinese Stimulus, But An Impending Global AI Partnership

Sep 27

Alibaba: Winning The AI Arms Race In China

Sep 20

Alibaba: Ready To Take Off

Sep 12

Alibaba: Riding The Wave Of A Strengthening Macroeconomic Environment

Sep 05

Potential Upside For Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) Not Without Risk

Sep 02
Potential Upside For Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) Not Without Risk

Alibaba: Time To Move On

Aug 30

Alibaba: Restructuring And Investment Efforts Appear Promising, Bullish Support Is Growing

Aug 24

Is Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) A Risky Investment?

Aug 17
Is Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) A Risky Investment?

Alibaba: High Safety Margin

Aug 17

Alibaba: Buybacks To Fuel Growth In FY Q1 Earnings

Aug 10

Alibaba: I Keep Disagreeing With The Crowd

Jul 22

Alibaba: Sell The Dead Cat Bounce

Jul 16

Alibaba Group Holding Limited's (NYSE:BABA) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 70% Above Its Share Price

Jul 16
Alibaba Group Holding Limited's (NYSE:BABA) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 70% Above Its Share Price

Alibaba Stock: Stay Greedy, The Catalyst Is Coming

Jul 05

The 5 Challenges Alibaba Faces (Rating Downgrade)

Jun 28

Alibaba: China Remains Uninvestable

Jun 20

Alibaba Group Holding's (NYSE:BABA) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher

Jun 13
Alibaba Group Holding's (NYSE:BABA) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher

Alibaba: At An Important Inflection Point

Jun 11

Alibaba: Central Bank Gives Green Light To Investors

Jun 04

Alibaba: A Stock Buyback King In The Making

May 28

We Think Alibaba Group Holding's (NYSE:BABA) Robust Earnings Are Conservative

May 21
We Think Alibaba Group Holding's (NYSE:BABA) Robust Earnings Are Conservative

Alibaba: Deep Undervaluation Meets Changing Sentiment

May 20

Alibaba: Own It, Don't Play Earnings

May 14

We Think Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

May 13
We Think Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

Alibaba Stock May Reverse Massively

May 03

Alibaba: Cheap But Risky, My Strategy For Reducing Downside Risk

Apr 18

Alibaba: I Was Fooled By The Valuation (Downgrade)

Apr 12

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks

Apr 10
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks

Alibaba Stock: Why It's Not Dead Money

Apr 04

Alibaba: Something's Got To Give And It's Been The Share Price

Mar 29

Is There An Opportunity With Alibaba Group Holding Limited's (NYSE:BABA) 49% Undervaluation?

Mar 25
Is There An Opportunity With Alibaba Group Holding Limited's (NYSE:BABA) 49% Undervaluation?

Alibaba: The Cheapest Chinese Megacap Keeps Getting Cheaper

Mar 21

Alibaba, China Risks, And Why We Downgraded The Stock

Mar 13

Alibaba: Several Positive Developments

Mar 07

Alibaba: All Eyes On A Single Segment

Feb 27

Alibaba: When Will The Sentiment Turn Around?

Feb 21

Alibaba International Records Solid Growth Led By AliExpress

Feb 12

Alibaba: Jack Ma And Joe Tsai Are Buying - Should You?

Feb 06

Here's What To Make Of Alibaba Group Holding's (NYSE:BABA) Decelerating Rates Of Return

Feb 02
Here's What To Make Of Alibaba Group Holding's (NYSE:BABA) Decelerating Rates Of Return

Alibaba: Cannot Be Undervalued Forever

Jan 30

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:BABA - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CNY Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
3/31/20271,170,501148,507168,651213,17134
3/31/20261,084,822129,417147,388197,71650
3/31/2025999,859123,795133,105174,82345
9/30/2024961,96185,846102,693153,130N/A
6/30/2024950,24869,678125,900170,923N/A
3/31/2024941,16879,741149,664182,593N/A
12/31/2023927,49499,987156,302190,654N/A
9/30/2023914,902132,369166,879213,308N/A
6/30/2023897,28884,102176,837211,189N/A
3/31/2023868,68772,509165,400199,752N/A
12/31/2022864,53932,752107,987161,311N/A
9/30/2022859,36313,629100,983154,307N/A
6/30/2022852,87739,55789,701143,025N/A
3/31/2022853,06261,95989,435142,759N/A
12/31/2021836,40572,721131,166173,982N/A
9/30/2021814,909124,456154,008196,824N/A
6/30/2021769,278147,858172,474215,290N/A
3/31/2021717,289150,308188,970231,786N/A
12/31/2020644,208158,949177,029209,767N/A
9/30/2020584,580131,831170,326203,064N/A
6/30/2020548,538175,602163,356196,094N/A
3/31/2020509,711149,263147,869180,607N/A
12/31/2019488,895171,931147,353196,996N/A
9/30/2019444,717152,674143,087165,389N/A
6/30/2019410,848100,167111,032149,470N/A
3/31/2019376,84487,600101,332150,975N/A
12/31/2018345,27869,331116,969146,805N/A
9/30/2018311,02860,35288,445136,949N/A
6/30/2018281,00257,987N/A136,049N/A
3/31/2018250,26663,985N/A125,805N/A
12/31/2017226,91367,071N/A122,168N/A
9/30/2017197,13360,853N/A104,542N/A
6/30/2017176,30350,808N/A91,241N/A
3/31/2017158,27343,675N/A82,854N/A
12/31/2016143,87838,393N/A74,662N/A
9/30/2016125,17333,036N/A63,476N/A
6/30/2016113,05248,167N/A61,394N/A
3/31/2016101,14371,460N/A56,836N/A
12/31/201594,38468,988N/A57,521N/A
9/30/201586,02062,426N/A50,699N/A
6/30/201580,67842,648N/A41,440N/A
3/31/201576,20424,149N/A41,217N/A
12/31/201470,81026,799N/A37,250N/A
9/30/201463,37629,069N/A32,764N/A
6/30/201457,49731,036N/A31,425N/A
3/31/201452,50423,076N/A26,379N/A
12/31/201349,14721,730N/A26,659N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BABA's forecast earnings growth (14.9% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: BABA's earnings (14.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (15.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BABA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BABA's revenue (7.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (9.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BABA's revenue (7.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BABA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 22:48
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is covered by 99 analysts. 50 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Zixiao YangArete Research Services LLP
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP
James KelleherArgus Research Company