PDD Holdings Valuation

Is PDD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PDD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PDD ($135.84) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($387.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PDD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PDD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

PDD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA14.8x
PEG Ratio0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PDD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PDD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average34x
BABA Alibaba Group Holding
17x13.9%US$185.4b
MELI MercadoLibre
77.2x25.6%US$88.4b
CPNG Coupang
29.9x18.2%US$37.9b
JD JD.com
12x11.6%US$40.7b
PDD PDD Holdings
17.1x23.3%US$191.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PDD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the peer average (34x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PDD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Multiline Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a20.8%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a20.8%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PDD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (22x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PDD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PDD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.1x
Fair PE Ratio32.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PDD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PDD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$135.84
US$205.78
+51.5%
11.9%US$271.21US$160.92n/a38
Jul ’25US$132.98
US$205.59
+54.6%
11.9%US$271.03US$160.81n/a38
Jun ’25US$149.78
US$204.33
+36.4%
12.2%US$272.21US$161.09n/a39
May ’25US$124.49
US$179.79
+44.4%
11.6%US$239.61US$127.94n/a40
Apr ’25US$119.16
US$180.29
+51.3%
11.8%US$240.29US$128.30n/a39
Mar ’25US$126.85
US$173.86
+37.1%
13.4%US$225.97US$113.89n/a38
Feb ’25US$126.59
US$173.21
+36.8%
13.3%US$226.48US$114.15n/a38
Jan ’25US$146.31
US$168.83
+15.4%
11.4%US$212.82US$114.87n/a38
Dec ’24US$145.27
US$164.78
+13.4%
13.4%US$212.74US$112.22n/a37
Nov ’24US$102.93
US$123.86
+20.3%
11.9%US$158.22US$94.53n/a36
Oct ’24US$98.07
US$120.48
+22.9%
12.2%US$158.47US$81.16n/a36
Sep ’24US$103.29
US$121.76
+17.9%
12.3%US$159.51US$81.69n/a37
Aug ’24US$90.09
US$105.97
+17.6%
14.1%US$151.59US$77.67n/a38
Jul ’24US$69.14
US$105.48
+52.6%
13.6%US$150.62US$77.17US$132.9838
Jun ’24US$69.09
US$107.15
+55.1%
13.6%US$153.30US$78.55US$149.7838
May ’24US$68.59
US$105.46
+53.8%
14.8%US$140.35US$62.97US$124.4938
Apr ’24US$75.90
US$107.35
+41.4%
14.4%US$141.11US$63.31US$119.1638
Mar ’24US$91.04
US$110.11
+20.9%
15.6%US$139.84US$63.38US$126.8539
Feb ’24US$102.98
US$110.42
+7.2%
15.5%US$143.34US$64.57US$126.5939
Jan ’24US$81.55
US$103.59
+27.0%
15.5%US$141.45US$62.52US$146.3138
Dec ’23US$83.74
US$98.30
+17.4%
16.3%US$137.19US$61.46US$145.2736
Nov ’23US$53.89
US$82.66
+53.4%
14.8%US$111.23US$59.73US$102.9333
Oct ’23US$62.58
US$82.80
+32.3%
18.5%US$123.40US$38.39US$98.0735
Sep ’23US$71.42
US$85.03
+19.1%
18.5%US$127.32US$39.61US$103.2935
Aug ’23US$47.69
US$68.68
+44.0%
25.4%US$129.93US$40.42US$90.0935
Jul ’23US$64.82
US$68.91
+6.3%
25.2%US$131.25US$40.84US$69.1436

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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