MercadoLibre Valuation

Is MELI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MELI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MELI ($1642.55) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($492.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MELI is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MELI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MELI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA29.9x
PEG Ratio2.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MELI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MELI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.5x
PDD PDD Holdings
16.8x21.5%US$186.4b
CPNG Coupang
28.9x18.2%US$36.9b
JD JD.com
11.6x11.2%US$41.0b
BABA Alibaba Group Holding
16.5x12.4%US$182.1b
MELI MercadoLibre
73.7x25.6%US$85.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MELI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (73.7x) compared to the peer average (18.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MELI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Multiline Retail Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a20.6%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a20.6%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MELI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (73.7x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (21.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MELI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MELI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio73.7x
Fair PE Ratio27.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MELI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (73.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MELI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$1,642.55
US$1,994.39
+21.4%
7.5%US$2,200.00US$1,500.00n/a22
Jul ’25US$1,597.60
US$1,974.39
+23.6%
7.6%US$2,270.00US$1,500.00n/a22
Jun ’25US$1,725.58
US$1,972.90
+14.3%
7.8%US$2,270.00US$1,500.00n/a23
May ’25US$1,456.51
US$1,918.80
+31.7%
10.1%US$2,160.00US$1,400.00n/a24
Apr ’25US$1,528.95
US$1,957.55
+28.0%
8.6%US$2,150.00US$1,400.00n/a24
Mar ’25US$1,612.75
US$1,955.38
+21.2%
9.5%US$2,200.00US$1,400.00n/a24
Feb ’25US$1,748.28
US$1,852.65
+6.0%
10.6%US$2,200.00US$1,330.00n/a23
Jan ’25US$1,571.54
US$1,754.91
+11.7%
11.7%US$2,120.00US$1,330.00n/a23
Dec ’24US$1,652.01
US$1,714.91
+3.8%
12.1%US$2,120.00US$1,330.00n/a24
Nov ’24US$1,300.01
US$1,614.53
+24.2%
13.7%US$2,150.00US$1,260.00n/a24
Oct ’24US$1,267.88
US$1,614.47
+27.3%
13.1%US$2,180.00US$1,260.00n/a23
Sep ’24US$1,421.64
US$1,616.16
+13.7%
13.0%US$2,180.00US$1,260.00n/a24
Aug ’24US$1,210.40
US$1,535.31
+26.8%
11.1%US$1,910.00US$1,250.00n/a22
Jul ’24US$1,184.60
US$1,565.56
+32.2%
9.4%US$1,810.00US$1,250.00US$1,597.6021
Jun ’24US$1,258.02
US$1,561.85
+24.2%
9.9%US$1,810.00US$1,250.00US$1,725.5821
May ’24US$1,291.65
US$1,464.73
+13.4%
14.7%US$1,770.00US$800.00US$1,456.5122
Apr ’24US$1,318.06
US$1,409.32
+6.9%
14.4%US$1,770.00US$800.00US$1,528.9522
Mar ’24US$1,208.72
US$1,381.59
+14.3%
14.8%US$1,750.00US$800.00US$1,612.7522
Feb ’24US$1,214.29
US$1,265.68
+4.2%
13.7%US$1,550.00US$800.00US$1,748.2822
Jan ’24US$846.24
US$1,264.09
+49.4%
12.7%US$1,550.00US$800.00US$1,571.5422
Dec ’23US$941.01
US$1,290.00
+37.1%
14.7%US$1,650.00US$800.00US$1,652.0122
Nov ’23US$919.34
US$1,295.00
+40.9%
15.1%US$1,650.00US$800.00US$1,300.0123
Oct ’23US$827.78
US$1,308.48
+58.1%
15.0%US$1,650.00US$800.00US$1,267.8823
Sep ’23US$858.79
US$1,308.72
+52.4%
15.2%US$1,650.00US$800.00US$1,421.6425
Aug ’23US$813.97
US$1,274.29
+56.6%
20.7%US$1,650.00US$800.00US$1,210.4024
Jul ’23US$659.95
US$1,388.46
+110.4%
17.3%US$1,700.00US$850.00US$1,184.6024

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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