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NIO

NIO NYSE:NIO Stock Report

Last Price

US$20.82

Market Cap

US$34.4b

7D

-0.4%

1Y

-51.0%

Updated

11 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
NIO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth5/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends0/6

NIO Stock Overview

NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 83.92% per year

Earnings have grown 17.7% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for NIO from our risk checks.

NIO Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for NIO
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$20.82
52 Week HighUS$44.40
52 Week LowUS$11.67
Beta1.97
1 Month Change-0.24%
3 Month Change45.49%
1 Year Change-50.98%
3 Year Change638.30%
5 Year Changen/a
Change since IPO215.45%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 11

NIO: A Simple Reality Check

NIO enjoys several strategic advantages in the long-term, including Beijing’s recent announcement to support EV adaption and its leading scale domestically. In the near term, the business has just posted 27% YoY delivery growth in July and passed the 10k monthly delivery mark. Its rapid growth in revenues and deliveries has not translated into healthy profits. As a result, I still cannot see a strong case for shareholder returns in the near future. Thesis NIO Inc. (NIO) has been reporting mixed news to shareholders lately. On the positive side, NIO delivered a total of 10.05k cars in July, a 60% growth YoY. And this also exceeded the 10k monthly. Furthermore, the company also recently started selling its ES8 model overseas (in Norway). Although its sales are still predominately in China, this also marks the beginning of its attempts to break into the global market. On the negative side, the COVID situation in China remains fluid, competition is intensifying, and NIO has yet to translate its growth in profit. Overall, I am seeing more negatives than positives, as reflected in its stock prices as you can see from the chart below. NIO share prices have declined more than 37% YTD, lagging both its domestic peers and global peers by a large margin. For example, the share prices of Li Auto (LI) only lost about 2%, and Tesla (TSLA) about 17%. More tellingly, even the recent announcement from Beijing to extend the tax credit to support EV adaption could not lift its stock prices. Next, we will dive into the good, bad, and ugly in more detail. Seeking Alpha The good, the bad, and the ugly On the positive side, growth remains robust. After the China-locked alleviated, NIO quickly ramped up its productions and deliveries as you can see from the following chart. In particular, it delivered 10,052 vehicles in July 2022. Do not be under-impressed by the comparison again in June. June sets a tough comp. It delivered 12.9k vehicles during June and set an all-time monthly record. The July delivery still represented a robust 27% growth YoY. The production data also show that the company has the capability to reliably produce and deliver 10k cars per month assuming normal operation conditions. Source: insideevs.com Moreover, the company is also expanding aggressively on other fronts. It started selling cars in Norway in later 2021, marking the beginning of its attempts for overseas expansion. It also aggressively invests in its future models and infrastructure. It expects to launch the ET5 mid-size electric sedan in Q3 2022. It has also just reported in July that its battery swap stations have reached 1,047 and logged in over 10 million times usage cumulatively. All such rapid expansion has resulted in impressive revenue growth as you can see from the chart below. Quarterly revenues grew from below $400M in 2020 to the current level of over $1.5B. And the YoY growth rates have been consistently in the double-digits. However, the business is yet to translate its rapid expansion into profits, as we will detail next. Seeking Alpha Cash flow and capital allocation issues As you can see from the bottom panel of the above chart, NIO's cash flow has been largely negative over the past few years. It has been bleeding more than $1 billion of cash on a quarterly basis during 2019-2020. And only in recent quarters since 2021, its cash flow has turned positive. It is currently reporting a small positive operating cash flow of $51 million. It's a positive sign, but the magnitude is just too small compared to the scale of the business. As a result, NIO has been consistently (and quite aggressively in my view) issuing new equity and debt to finance its expansion. As you can see from the top panel of the following chart, its diluted shares expanded by more than 60% since 2020, from about 1 billion outstanding shares to the current level of more than 1.6 billion shares. Total long-term liabilities have swollen substantially also at the same time. Its debt burden was the lightest during 2018 when its total long-term liabilities were only about $400M. And currently, it stands at $2.8 billion. Seeking Alpha A reality check Ultimately, shareholder return cannot come from growth alone. It will have to come from the growth of PROFIT. Let's consider a very simple analysis that I call a reality check as shown in the chart below (for readers who like to read the specific numbers, the table behind the chart provides the same information). The calculation projects the number of many years of sustained growth required to realize a 10% annualized ROI on investments at the current entry valuation (about 100x price to cash flow multiple taken from Seeking Alpha). The calculations were performed for two terminal multiples: 20x and 15x price to cash flow ratio. As seen, if the terminal valuation is 20x (still a sizeable premium relative to the overall market), it would take about 9 years of sustained growth at 20% CAGR to materialize a 10% annualized ROI. Even at a 40% CAGR, it will take about 5 years.

Aug 01

NIO shares higher as July deliveries saw ~27% Y/Y growth

NIO (NYSE:NIO) delivered 10,052 vehicles in July 2022, +26.7% Y/Y and fell 22.4% vs. June deliveries of 12,961 vehicles. The deliveries consisted of 7,579 premium smart electric SUVs, and 2,473 premium smart electric sedans. On YTD basis, the company delivered 60,879 vehicles, up 22% Y/Y. A look at NIO's monthly delivery trend:  Cumulative deliveries reached 227,949 as of July 31, 2022. The company has been working closely with supply chain partners as the production of the ET7 and the EC6 in July 2022 was constrained and expects to accelerate vehicle production in the following months of the third quarter of 2022. Based on preliminary estimates, China's July retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to be around 450,000 units, up 102.5% Y/Y, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said in a report released July 22. The company is planning to launch a third electric vehicle brand to cover the low to mid-range market under RMB 200,000, in addition to the NIO brand, and a sub-brand codenamed ALPS Peer Li Auto (LI) delivered 10,422 Li ONEs in July 2022, +21% Y/Y and XPEV (XPEV) delivered 11,524 Smart EVs in July 2022, +43% Y/Y. Shares up 4.2% PM.

Jul 22

NIO: Fair Value $10

NIO’s delivery growth has decelerated dramatically in 2022. The company might not deliver substantially more electric-vehicles in 2022 than it did in 2021. The stock’s valuation could receive a 50% haircut. NIO Inc. (NIO), a Chinese electric-vehicle firm, is facing significant problems, which could worsen in 2022. Despite profiting from a delivery bounce in June, NIO is dealing with decreasing delivery growth prospects in China and may supply fewer electric-vehicles this year than last. The Securities and Exchange Commission recently short-listed NIO as a potential de-listing contender. Given the current macro background and growth constraints, I believe NIO is overvalued and that the company has a reasonable value of no more than $10. Reasons For NIO's Terrible Performance As I mentioned in my previous post 'NIO: Losing The EV Race - Part II', NIO's growth has slowed significantly in 2022, and NIO's second quarter delivery milestones haven't helped matters. NIO has underperformed in terms of both delivery growth and stock price performance in 2022. With increased hurdles in the electric-vehicle market such as increasing competition, suggestions to slash electric-vehicle subsidies in China by up to 30%, Covid-19 outbreaks, and supply-chain problems, NIO's outlook for setting a new delivery record in 2022 has drastically deteriorated. NIO's output volumes dropped significantly in the first and second quarters due to supply-chain difficulties and Covid-19 outbreaks. As a result, NIO has underperformed both its electric-vehicle peers and market expectations. An investment in NIO made a year ago resulted in a valuation haircut of 53% of its value, while peers such as XPeng (XPEV) and Li (LI) fared far better. A year ago, for example, an investment in Li yielded 18%. Share Price Comparison (Yahoo Finance) NIO delivered 5,074 and 7,024 electric-vehicles in April and May, respectively, while growth slowed to 5% YoY in May. In the same period last year, the growth rate was 95%, indicating a significant decrease. Even if NIO's growth accelerated in June, with deliveries of 12,961 electric-vehicles, the question is how sustainable this rate of development will be in the future. Monthly Deliveries (CnEVPost) NIO delivered 25,059 electric-vehicles in the three months ending June 2022, representing a pitiful 14% YoY growth rate. In the three months ending June 2021, NIO delivered about the same number of electric-vehicles, 21,896, while increasing deliveries by 111.9% YoY. The significant decrease in NIO's growth rate from 111.9% to 14.4% indicates that last year's optimistic growth forecasts were overstated. The inference is that NIO's delivery growth is falling short of forecasts, pointing to further difficulties for NIO's stock. At the present delivery rate, NIO may be content with delivering 100,000 electric-vehicles in 2022, and there is a strong potential that NIO may fall short of exceeding its 2021 deliveries. NIO delivered 91,429 electric-vehicles in 2021, representing a 109.1% increase YoY. All it takes for NIO to disappoint here is another surge in Covid infections and supply-chain issues to persist for a little longer. Investors Still Ignoring De-Listing Risks As if NIO's slowing delivery growth wasn't enough of a concern to justify the company's value, the Securities and Exchange Commission named NIO in the second quarter as one of 80 firms that potentially risk de-listing of their ADR shares under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. As a result, NIO listed its Class A ordinary shares on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, the Securities and Exchange Commission can prohibit the trading of ADR shares of a company that has been audited, but whose working material cannot be audited by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. This issue appears to be mainly neglected by U.S. investors. NIO's Fair Value Is $10 Even with generosity, I struggle to see a fair value much greater than $10. China is slashing electric-vehicle subsidies, which might slow demand and dampen NIO's delivery prospects in the future. NIO's current sales multiple is unsustainable in light of a significant slowdown in deliveries and sales, and the stock is overpriced in my opinion. Despite risk factors that fundamentally weaken trust in NIO's capacity to continue its U.S. ADR de-listing and decreasing delivery prospects, investors value NIO's electric-vehicle growth at 5.5 times sales. If there is evidence that the supply-chain scenario will deteriorate more in 2022 or 2023, NIO's valuation would fall again. NIO PS Ratio (YChart) The market expects NIO to earn $15.9 billion in revenue next year. With a market capitalization of $35 billion, NIO has a sales multiple of 2.2x based on forward sales. Considering that NIO is experiencing a significant slowdown in its operations, as well as production difficulties and supply-chain issues, NIO may just barely exceed 2021 deliveries.

Jul 14

NIO June Deliveries Show Continuing Weakness And A Glimmer Of Hope

Nio's June deliveries of 12,961 vehicles reached a new record, but failed to cement q/q growth in Q2. Nio's growth rates for the month and quarter significantly lagged those of peers XPEV, TSLA, BYDDY, as well as the industry. Nio has multiple risks ahead that could continue to pressure a string of weak quarterly deliveries. However, factory and model launches in Q3 as well as a strong order book and higher pricing reflect positively for the back half of the year. NIO's (NIO) end to Q2 was marred by a short report from Grizzly Research, accusing Nio of fraudulent schemes to boost revenues via a battery-focused subsidiary - while Nio is working to defend itself from the report and launching a response, it's falling further behind rival XPeng (XPEV). Nio's early-year slump in deliveries has placed it further behind XPeng, whose stellar performance has vaulted it ahead in a short amount of time. Nio's lack of progress in deliveries in over three quarters is not a positive signal as XPeng, BYD (BYDDY), Tesla (TSLA) and others continue to see strong growth metrics. June Deliveries Reach A Record Nio's June numbers reached a record, with the manufacturer delivering 12,961 vehicles during the month to close Q2 on a strong month. Nio June deliveries (Nio (Twitter)) Nio marked its second straight monthly increase in deliveries for the first time this year, as it struggled to find growth throughout the first half of the year, falling prey to component and chip shortages, retooling facilities, and production halts. The 12,961 unit figure represented 60.3% growth y/y and 84.5% growth m/m from a relatively weaker May. Per vehicle, Nio delivered "1,684 ES8s, 5,100 ES6s and 1,828 EC6s, and 4,349 ET7s." Taking a look at the per vehicle breakdown and trends in each vehicle line shows a different picture than the headline delivery figure does. Monthly Deliveries by Vehicle (Nio) Nio's June was dominated primarily by a resurgence in ES6 sales, cresting above 5,000 units for the month for the first time since March to reach 5,100 units. ET7 continued its blazing growth to reach nearly 4,400 units delivered during the month, playing a major role in pushing Nio to its new monthly delivery record. ES8 recovered on the month as well, more than doubling to 1,684 units, while the EC6 performed relatively flat. June's performance sets up an interesting preview into Q3's opener - ET7 sales have taken off rapidly, and while Nio has had the capacity to support 15,000 to 20,000 vehicles during Q2, it failed to eclipse the lower bound of that range, suggesting production capacity may continue to come up short as NeoPark commences operations ahead of the ES7 launch in August/September. With NeoPark, Nio should have the capacity to support up to 20,000 to 25,000 units/month by Q4 this year, but again, the company has a high bar to meet to reach those volumes. For example, Deutsche Bank "forecasts 2022 deliveries of 160K," suggesting that in their view, Nio is likely to average 18,000 units of production for the remainder of the year. Q2 Deliveries Show No Growth Nio's Q2 deliveries increased 14.4% y/y to 25,059 vehicles, just slightly above its previously stated Q2 guidance of 23,000 to 25,000 units. Since Q3 2021, Nio has shown relatively no growth in deliveries, with the manufacturer unable to solidify a quarter above 26,000 units. The tide may be about to turn with the launch of the ET7 scaling rapidly with NeoPark and the ES7 ending the year on an expected high note. Nio has high expectations ahead of itself for the remainder of the year, with Q3 the proving ground for Nio to show to the market that it can resurrect growth and re-accelerate deliveries after this prolonged slump. Nio Quarterly Deliveries (Nio data) Nio's q/q growth rate for deliveries slipped into contraction, even with June's record month, as April and May faced difficulties from supply chain issues. Nio has struggled to show growth in monthly deliveries since Q4 '21, a string of poor results that Nio has to break in order not to fall further behind peers, and to regain its once darling status with the market. There are multiple factors that are [likely] influencing Nio's string of weakness: broader industry weakness: Q2 was plagued with broader auto industry weakness in China, as lockdowns heavily impacted demand. The industry suffered a 47.1% decline m/m (-47.6% y/y) in April and a 38.3% decline in NEV sales. May rebounded 57.6% m/m from April, but was still 12.6% lower y/y. June sales continued a rebound, although the industry still shrunk 6.6% in 1H compared to last year. CAAM has cut its forecast for the industry, seeing just 3% growth for the year, compared to a prior forecast of 5.4% as commercial vehicle demand has evaporated quickly. lagging EV sector growth rates: for 1H in China, NEV sales expanded 115% y/y, with June surging 129% y/y; Nio's growth rates severely lagged both June's and 1H's metrics, with Nio seeing just 60.3% y/y growth for June and 21.1% y/y growth for 1H as deliveries failed to meaningfully grow. For comparison, XPeng saw deliveries grow 133% y/y for June and 124% y/y for 1H, heavily outstripping Nio's growth heightened competition: competition in China is only getting stronger, with XPeng taking a swift lead above Nio, delivering 35.7% more vehicles than Nio during 1H (over 18,000 units more). Tesla "achieved its highest monthly sales of China-made vehicles" since the Shanghai plant opened, selling nearly 79,000 vehicles (+145% y/y), while BYD sold 133,762 NEV passenger vehicles (of which 69,544 were BEV), up over 160% y/y. Growth rates of this degree show that Nio is quickly falling behind against strengthening competition supply chain constraints: while this is more of an industry-related factor, supply chain constraints are not expected to ease relatively quickly, with Mercedes (DDAIF) the latest to see chip shortages persisting through at least the end of 2022, while GM (GM), Intel (INTC), NXP (NXPI), and others all forecasting chip shortages to last into 2023, adding further pressure on the industry and further pressure on solid execution for Nio. Although the company expects supply chain constraints to ease, the fragility of the supply chain has been visible already this year, and any minor impacts to critical component supply could easily derail targets. lack of concentration: Nio's current strategy raises concerns that the manufacturer is doing too much, too soon. Nio is working to expand to multiple countries in Europe, while expanding their model lineup, charging and battery swapping network, while still accumulating losses. Nio is "confident of ramping up of [its] deliveries at a much faster pace in the second half of this year," but it raises questions of if Nio can successfully execute all of these facets while pushing to scale new models.

Jul 07

NIO: June Deliveries Show Growth Making A Comeback

After months of weakness, NIO’s deliveries soared back strongly in June. ET7 sedan deliveries increased 155.7% month over month and now represent a third of all of NIO's product deliveries. ET5 and ET7 production are set to exceed volume production of the ES6 this year. NIO's (NIO) first-quarter production and delivery performance was greatly impacted by a variety of factors, including Chinese holidays and COVID-related shutdowns that limited factory output levels. In June, however, NIO experienced a surge in deliveries due to factories coming back online and accelerating demand for NIO’s first sedan product, the ET7. While COVID-19 shutdowns remain a significant risk factor going forward, a recovery in delivery volumes could drive an upwards revaluation of NIO’s shares. Why NIO’s growth will be determined by sedan production going forward NIO submitted its delivery card for June last week which revealed that the electric vehicle manufacturer delivered 12,961 electric vehicles, showing 60.3% year-over-year growth. On a month-over-month basis, NIO’s deliveries increased a massive 84.5% which was the fastest growth rate when compared against rival companies XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI). XPeng's month-over-month delivery growth rate was 51.1% while Li Auto saw 13.3% month-over-month growth. XPeng, which currently has the fastest year-over-year delivery growth of the Top Three electric vehicle manufacturers delivered the most EVs last month: 15,295, showing 133% growth. Li Auto delivered 13,024 Li ONE sport utility vehicles in June, showing 68.9% year-over-year growth. Deliveries April April Y/Y Growth May May Y/Y Growth June June Y/Y Growth NIO 5,074 -28.6% 7,024 4.7% 12,961 60.3% XPEV 9,002 75.0% 10,125 78.0% 15,295 133.0% LI 4,167 -24.8% 11,496 165.9% 13,024 68.9% (Source: Author) NIO’s delivery card for June contained further evidence that sedan products are going to be NIO’s future. The electric vehicle company delivered 5,100 ES6s, 1,828 EC6s and 1,684 ES8s which are all sport utility vehicles. Additionally, NIO delivered a massive 4,349 ET7s, the firm’s first sedan product that started to sell in China only in March. NIO’s delivery growth in June has been driven by two models especially: The ET7 which has seen month-over-month delivery growth of a massive 154.8% and the ES6 which saw a delivery increase of 73.7% on a monthly basis. NIO’s ES6 model still has the largest delivery share (currently 39.3%) and NIO produces by far the largest number of SUVs in the ES6 product line. But because of the surge in demand for electric vehicle sedans, going forward, the ET7 is set to replace NIO’s ES6 as the most important vehicle in NIO’s product portfolio. With NIO’s ET5 deliveries expected to start in September, the electric vehicle start-up could generate about half of its deliveries and sales from sedans, not SUVs, by year-end. The share of ET7 deliveries has consistently increased throughout the second-quarter as well: in April, May and June, the delivery shares of the ET7 were 13.7%, 24.3% and 33.6%. Considering that NIO will add sedan volume through the ET5, especially in the fourth quarter, sedan deliveries are likely going to be the biggest driver for NIO’s delivery growth in the second half of 2022 and beyond. NIO has long-term potential, but short-term setbacks should be expected NIO’s valuation today is much cheaper than a year ago. During the pandemic, shares of NIO traded as high as $65. But investors appear to have stopped caring much about NIO’s delivery growth prospects lately which is understandable considering that EV deliveries have slowed down industry-wide in the first quarter. While short-term setbacks have to be expected, especially regarding new COVID-19 outbreaks in China, NIO’s growth prospects are attractive in the long term.

Shareholder Returns

NIOUS AutoUS Market
7D-0.4%-4.7%1.3%
1Y-51.0%4.3%-11.7%

Return vs Industry: NIO underperformed the US Auto industry which returned 6.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NIO underperformed the US Market which returned -11.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NIO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NIO volatility
NIO Average Weekly Movement12.1%
Auto Industry Average Movement12.1%
Market Average Movement7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: NIO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 12% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NIO's weekly volatility (12%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
201415,204Bin Lihttps://www.nio.com

NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China. It offers five, six, and seven-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. The company is also involved in the provision of energy and service packages to its users; design and technology development activities; manufacture of e-powertrains, battery packs, and components; and sales and after sales management activities.

NIO Fundamentals Summary

How do NIO's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NIO fundamental statistics
Market CapCN¥232.04b
Earnings (TTM)-CN¥7.52b
Revenue (TTM)CN¥38.06b

6.1x

P/S Ratio

-30.8x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NIO income statement (TTM)
RevenueCN¥38.06b
Cost of RevenueCN¥31.35b
Gross ProfitCN¥6.71b
Other ExpensesCN¥14.24b
Earnings-CN¥7.52b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)-4.55
Gross Margin17.64%
Net Profit Margin-19.76%
Debt/Equity Ratio50.0%

How did NIO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NIO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NIO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

NIO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-45.8x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NIO's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

NIO PS Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PS ratio for NIO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average63.5x
TSLA Tesla
13.4x20.7%US$898.1b
F Ford Motor
0.4x4.2%US$63.6b
LI Li Auto
6.5x35.8%US$31.9b
RIVN Rivian Automotive
233.9x55.0%US$35.1b
NIO NIO
6.1x33.3%US$34.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NIO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.1x) compared to the peer average (63.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NIO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Auto Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NIO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.1x) compared to the US Auto industry average (13.8x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NIO's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NIO PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio6.1x
Fair PS Ratio8.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NIO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.3x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NIO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NIO ($20.82) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($4.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NIO is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is NIO forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 27 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


83.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NIO is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: NIO is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: NIO is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NIO's revenue (33.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NIO's revenue (33.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NIO is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.


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Past Performance

How has NIO performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


17.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NIO is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: NIO is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NIO is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 17.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare NIO's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: NIO is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Auto industry (46%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: NIO has a negative Return on Equity (-20.22%), as it is currently unprofitable.


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Financial Health

How is NIO's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Stable Cash Runway

  • Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NIO's short term assets (CN¥64.3B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥31.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: NIO's short term assets (CN¥64.3B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥17.8B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NIO has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: NIO's debt to equity ratio has increased from 8.2% to 50% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: NIO has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if NIO has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


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Dividend

What is NIO current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate NIO's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate NIO's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NIO's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NIO's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as NIO has not reported any payouts.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.1yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Bin Li (48 yo)

4.58yrs

Tenure

Mr. William Li, also known as Bin, is the Founder of Bitauto Holdings Limited and served as its Chairman since 2005 until 2020. Mr. Li is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer at NEXTEV LIMITED. He serve...


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NIO's management team is considered experienced (4.1 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: NIO's board of directors are considered experienced (3.9 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

NIO Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: NIO Inc.
  • Ticker: NIO
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 2014
  • Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
  • Sector: Automobiles
  • Implied Market Cap: US$34.404b
  • Shares outstanding: 1.65b
  • Website: https://www.nio.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • NIO Inc.
  • Building 20
  • No. 56 AnTuo Road
  • Shanghai
  • 201804
  • China

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/11 00:00
Earnings2022/03/31
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.