NIO Inc.

NYSE:NIO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$7.9b

NIO Valuation

Is NIO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NIO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$4.66
Fair Value
22.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
25
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: NIO ($3.61) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($4.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NIO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NIO?

Key metric: As NIO is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for NIO. This is calculated by dividing NIO's market cap by their current revenue.
What is NIO's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.9x
SalesCN¥65.73b
Market CapCN¥57.72b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NIO's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for NIO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.6x
VFS VinFast Auto
4.9x34.7%US$6.8b
LCID Lucid Group
9.5x39.4%US$7.6b
XPEV XPeng
3.6x24.9%US$19.0b
ZK ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding
0.5x23.5%US$5.3b
NIO NIO
0.9x18.5%US$7.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NIO is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x) compared to the peer average (4.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does NIO's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Auto Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GM General Motors
0.2x0.5%US$43.41b
F Ford Motor
0.2x-1.3%US$37.10b
ZK ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding
0.5x23.5%US$5.29b
THO THOR Industries
0.4x7.0%US$3.67b
NIO 0.9xIndustry Avg. 0.8xNo. of Companies14PS02.85.68.411.214+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NIO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x) compared to the US Auto industry average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NIO's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NIO PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.9x
Fair PS Ratio0.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NIO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NIO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$3.61
US$5.59
+54.7%
34.8%US$12.43US$3.68n/a25
Apr ’26US$3.87
US$5.60
+44.6%
34.8%US$12.46US$3.69n/a25
Mar ’26US$4.63
US$6.10
+31.7%
33.3%US$12.49US$3.90n/a25
Feb ’26US$4.32
US$6.24
+44.6%
32.2%US$12.49US$3.51n/a25
Jan ’26US$4.36
US$6.32
+44.9%
30.8%US$12.41US$3.86n/a25
Dec ’25US$4.48
US$6.43
+43.6%
30.5%US$12.50US$3.89n/a26
Nov ’25US$5.10
US$6.77
+32.8%
28.0%US$12.71US$3.99n/a26
Oct ’25US$7.03
US$6.72
-4.3%
29.4%US$12.90US$4.05n/a26
Sep ’25US$4.04
US$6.66
+64.7%
29.2%US$12.66US$4.05n/a25
Aug ’25US$4.06
US$6.81
+67.7%
29.4%US$12.54US$4.01n/a25
Jul ’25US$4.44
US$7.09
+59.7%
29.1%US$12.48US$4.00n/a27
Jun ’25US$5.39
US$7.38
+36.9%
31.2%US$14.28US$3.99n/a27
May ’25US$5.27
US$7.40
+40.3%
31.2%US$14.30US$4.00n/a27
Apr ’25US$4.64
US$7.67
+65.4%
28.1%US$14.34US$4.79US$3.8726
Mar ’25US$5.78
US$10.24
+77.2%
29.1%US$17.77US$5.01US$4.6327
Feb ’25US$5.71
US$10.57
+85.1%
26.1%US$17.88US$7.49US$4.3227
Jan ’25US$9.07
US$11.20
+23.5%
28.0%US$19.15US$7.50US$4.3625
Dec ’24US$7.15
US$13.32
+86.3%
29.9%US$22.39US$7.70US$4.4825
Nov ’24US$7.45
US$13.45
+80.5%
29.4%US$21.79US$7.49US$5.1025
Oct ’24US$9.04
US$13.81
+52.8%
27.5%US$21.82US$7.50US$7.0325
Sep ’24US$11.00
US$14.03
+27.6%
27.3%US$21.80US$7.52US$4.0426
Aug ’24US$14.63
US$12.06
-17.6%
31.7%US$21.00US$6.65US$4.0627
Jul ’24US$9.69
US$11.00
+13.5%
27.2%US$19.67US$6.59US$4.4427
Jun ’24US$7.54
US$13.70
+81.7%
25.0%US$24.19US$9.34US$5.3925
May ’24US$7.81
US$14.41
+84.5%
27.3%US$24.85US$9.59US$5.2725
Apr ’24US$10.51
US$15.18
+44.4%
30.1%US$26.14US$9.64US$4.6427
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 25 Analysts
US$5.59
Fair Value
35.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
25
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/04/14 23:19
End of Day Share Price 2025/04/14 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

NIO Inc. is covered by 52 analysts. 27 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jiong ShaoBarclays
Jia LouBOCI Research Ltd.
Ming-Hsun LeeBofA Global Research