XPeng Valuation

Is XPEV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XPEV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XPEV ($7.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($16.06)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XPEV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XPEV?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

XPEV key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-4.2x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does XPEV's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for XPEV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3.6x
NIO NIO
1.2x21.4%US$8.9b
VFS VinFast Auto
6.8x35.1%US$9.1b
ZK ZEEKR Intelligent Technology Holding
0.7x22.9%US$5.2b
LOT Lotus Technology
5.7x40.5%US$4.7b
XPEV XPeng
1.6x26.9%US$7.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: XPEV is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.6x) compared to the peer average (3.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XPEV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Auto Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.3%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.3%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: XPEV is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.6x) compared to the US Auto industry average (1.8x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XPEV's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XPEV PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.6x
Fair PS Ratio0.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: XPEV is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XPEV forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$7.73
US$12.56
+62.4%
27.1%US$20.04US$7.68n/a26
Jun ’25US$8.31
US$12.59
+51.5%
27.2%US$20.10US$7.70n/a26
May ’25US$8.12
US$13.13
+61.7%
29.7%US$20.11US$7.01n/a25
Apr ’25US$7.76
US$14.20
+83.0%
33.1%US$28.21US$7.27n/a25
Mar ’25US$9.95
US$16.72
+68.0%
31.1%US$28.37US$7.29n/a25
Feb ’25US$8.47
US$17.67
+108.7%
26.8%US$28.40US$7.30n/a25
Jan ’25US$14.59
US$19.20
+31.6%
25.9%US$28.81US$8.19n/a25
Dec ’24US$15.74
US$19.41
+23.3%
27.0%US$28.56US$8.12n/a25
Nov ’24US$15.50
US$18.38
+18.6%
30.1%US$27.86US$7.96n/a26
Oct ’24US$18.36
US$18.77
+2.3%
28.1%US$27.97US$7.99n/a26
Sep ’24US$18.71
US$19.13
+2.3%
28.6%US$28.09US$8.02n/a27
Aug ’24US$20.05
US$16.96
-15.4%
44.7%US$32.98US$5.91n/a28
Jul ’24US$13.42
US$10.27
-23.5%
27.7%US$15.99US$4.87n/a26
Jun ’24US$8.02
US$9.85
+22.8%
24.8%US$14.50US$4.98US$8.3125
May ’24US$9.90
US$12.30
+24.2%
46.0%US$38.18US$6.68US$8.1226
Apr ’24US$11.11
US$12.02
+8.1%
48.9%US$38.32US$4.19US$7.7626
Mar ’24US$8.86
US$13.58
+53.3%
48.0%US$37.93US$4.35US$9.9525
Feb ’24US$11.13
US$14.27
+28.2%
46.8%US$39.14US$4.49US$8.4725
Jan ’24US$9.94
US$14.20
+42.8%
45.7%US$37.85US$4.34US$14.5925
Dec ’23US$9.97
US$16.73
+67.8%
53.0%US$39.38US$4.30US$15.7425
Nov ’23US$6.41
US$25.90
+304.1%
39.6%US$39.84US$3.17US$15.5024
Oct ’23US$11.95
US$31.09
+160.2%
20.2%US$40.66US$17.88US$18.3624
Sep ’23US$17.33
US$32.34
+86.6%
18.6%US$41.93US$18.43US$18.7124
Aug ’23US$24.47
US$40.24
+64.4%
20.8%US$60.00US$21.27US$20.0524
Jul ’23US$30.28
US$40.46
+33.6%
22.3%US$60.12US$21.48US$13.4223
Jun ’23US$22.92
US$40.56
+77.0%
25.4%US$64.25US$21.53US$8.0222

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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