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U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector Analysis

UpdatedDec 31, 2025
DataAggregated Company Financials
Companies806
  • 7D-1.5%
  • 3M-1.4%
  • 1Y8.4%
  • YTD9.7%

Over the last 7 days, the Consumer Discretionary industry has dropped 1.5%, driven by a pullback from Tesla of 6.4%. On the other hand NIKE is actually up 6.7%. This takes the industry's 12 month performance to a gain of 8.4%. Earnings are forecast to grow by 20% annually.

Sector Valuation and Performance

Has the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector valuation changed over the past few years?

DateMarket CapRevenueEarningsPEAbsolute PEPS
Wed, 31 Dec 2025US$7.7tUS$3.6tUS$221.5b18.9x34.9x2.2x
Fri, 28 Nov 2025US$7.6tUS$3.6tUS$221.3b18.6x34.2x2.1x
Sun, 26 Oct 2025US$7.7tUS$3.5tUS$222.7b19x34.8x2.2x
Tue, 23 Sep 2025US$7.9tUS$3.5tUS$220.8b20x35.6x2.3x
Thu, 21 Aug 2025US$7.2tUS$3.5tUS$217.3b19.8x33x2.1x
Sat, 19 Jul 2025US$7.0tUS$3.4tUS$215.6b18.7x32.4x2x
Mon, 16 Jun 2025US$6.7tUS$3.4tUS$217.6b17.3x30.6x1.9x
Wed, 14 May 2025US$6.8tUS$3.4tUS$219.1b17.9x30.8x2x
Fri, 11 Apr 2025US$5.9tUS$3.4tUS$211.6b15.4x28x1.7x
Sun, 09 Mar 2025US$6.5tUS$3.4tUS$214.3b17.6x30.3x1.9x
Tue, 04 Feb 2025US$7.4tUS$3.3tUS$193.3b18.8x38.2x2.2x
Thu, 02 Jan 2025US$7.0tUS$3.3tUS$201.5b18.3x34.9x2.1x
Sat, 30 Nov 2024US$6.9tUS$3.3tUS$199.9b19.3x34.6x2.1x
Mon, 28 Oct 2024US$5.9tUS$3.2tUS$179.8b17.9x32.9x1.9x
Wed, 25 Sep 2024US$5.9tUS$3.2tUS$177.8b17.9x33x1.8x
Fri, 23 Aug 2024US$5.6tUS$3.2tUS$173.5b17.5x32.2x1.8x
Sun, 21 Jul 2024US$5.6tUS$3.1tUS$167.3b17.7x33.3x1.8x
Tue, 18 Jun 2024US$5.4tUS$3.1tUS$167.8b17.8x32x1.7x
Thu, 16 May 2024US$5.5tUS$3.1tUS$164.3b18.3x33.3x1.8x
Sat, 13 Apr 2024US$5.4tUS$3.1tUS$160.5b17.4x33.7x1.8x
Mon, 11 Mar 2024US$5.3tUS$3.1tUS$155.6b16.7x33.9x1.7x
Wed, 07 Feb 2024US$5.2tUS$3.1tUS$159.9b17.2x32.3x1.7x
Fri, 05 Jan 2024US$5.1tUS$3.1tUS$141.4b17.4x36x1.7x
Sun, 03 Dec 2023US$5.1tUS$3.1tUS$139.4b16.1x36.5x1.7x
Tue, 31 Oct 2023US$4.5tUS$3.0tUS$121.6b14.3x36.8x1.5x
Thu, 28 Sep 2023US$4.6tUS$3.0tUS$112.2b14.9x41.3x1.6x
Sat, 26 Aug 2023US$4.8tUS$3.0tUS$112.3b15.4x42.7x1.6x
Mon, 24 Jul 2023US$5.0tUS$2.9tUS$100.4b15.5x49.6x1.7x
Wed, 21 Jun 2023US$4.8tUS$2.9tUS$98.8b14.8x49x1.7x
Fri, 19 May 2023US$4.4tUS$2.9tUS$99.9b14.1x43.8x1.5x
Sun, 16 Apr 2023US$4.4tUS$2.9tUS$81.6b14.1x53.4x1.5x
Tue, 14 Mar 2023US$4.3tUS$3.1tUS$87.1b13.4x49.1x1.4x
Thu, 09 Feb 2023US$4.8tUS$3.1tUS$86.7b13.4x55.3x1.6x
Sat, 07 Jan 2023US$4.2tUS$3.0tUS$108.5b12.1x38.6x1.4x
Price to Earnings Ratio

38.6x


Total Market Cap: US$4.2tTotal Earnings: US$108.5bTotal Revenue: US$3.0tTotal Market Cap vs Earnings and Revenue0%0%0%
U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector Price to Earnings3Y Average 37.1x20242025
Current Industry PE
  • Investors are relatively neutral on the American Consumer Discretionary industry at the moment, indicating that they anticipate long term growth rates to remain steady.
  • The industry is trading close to its 3-year average PE ratio of 37.1x.
  • The 3-year average PS ratio of 1.8x is lower than the industry's current PS ratio of 2.2x.
Past Earnings Growth
  • The earnings for companies in the Consumer Discretionary industry have grown 27% per year over the last three years.
  • Revenues for these companies have grown 5.4% per year.
  • This means that more sales are being generated by these companies overall, and subsequently their profits are increasing too.

Industry Trends

Which industries have driven the changes within the U.S. Consumer Discretionary sector?

US Market-0.48%
Consumer Discretionary-1.49%
Luxury2.08%
Auto Components0.40%
Retail Distributors0.31%
Consumer Durables0.26%
Online Retail and Ecommerce0%0
General Merchandise and Department Stores-0.062%
Leisure-0.35%
Specialty Stores-0.59%
Consumer Services-0.73%
Hospitality-1.35%
Auto-5.62%
Industry PE
  • Investors are most optimistic about the Auto industry which is trading above its 3-year average PE ratio of 113x.
    • Analysts are expecting annual earnings growth of 33.0%, which is higher than its past year's earnings decline of 35.3% per year.
Forecasted Growth
  • Analysts are most optimistic on the Leisure industry, expecting annual earnings growth of 49% over the next 5 years.
  • This is better than its past earnings decline of 35% per year.
  • In contrast, the Consumer Durables industry is expected to see its earnings grow by 7.7% per year over the next few years.

Top Stock Gainers and Losers

Which companies have driven the market over the last 7 days?

CompanyLast Price7D1YValuation
NKE NIKEUS$61.196.7%
+US$5.7b		-19.1%PE35.8x
CPNG CoupangUS$24.137.6%
+US$3.1b		9.8%PE113x
NIO NIOUS$5.5012.5%
+US$1.7b		26.1%PS1.5x
AMZN Amazon.comUS$232.530.06%
+US$1.6b		6.0%PE32.5x
SE SeaUS$128.352.1%
+US$1.5b		21.0%PE53.6x

Latest News

CVNA
US$429.55
Carvana
7D
-1.8%
1Y
111.2%

CVNA: Improving Credit Performance Will Drive Future Upside In Shares

Analysts have raised their Carvana fair value estimate to $550 from $532.59, citing stronger expected revenue growth, modestly higher long term profit margins, and a premium future earnings multiple. This change is driven by growing conviction in the company’s competitive position and potential upside to current unit forecasts.
XPEV
US$21.28
XPeng
7D
8.0%
1Y
80.0%

XPEV: AI Robotaxis Will Drive Future Mobility Upside Narrative

The analyst price target for XPeng has been modestly increased by approximately $0.19 as analysts factor in stronger long term revenue growth and profit margin prospects, supported by rising volume forecasts, AI enabled model launches, and incremental opportunities in robotaxis and robotics. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts have turned increasingly constructive on XPeng, pointing to expanding total addressable markets, stronger than expected AI capabilities, and improving long term delivery trajectories as key drivers of upside to the equity story.
CCL
US$30.82
Carnival Corporation &
7D
-2.7%
1Y
23.7%

Carnival Corporation & plc's (NYSE:CCL) Shares Leap 26% Yet They're Still Not Telling The Full Story

Dec 25
Carnival Corporation & plc's (NYSE:CCL) Shares Leap 26% Yet They're Still Not Telling The Full Story
RCL
US$281.70
Royal Caribbean Cruises
7D
-3.6%
1Y
22.1%

RCL: Share Repurchases And Efficient Fleet Are Expected To Drive Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Royal Caribbean Cruises to about $411.61 from $420, citing slightly slower expected revenue growth, modestly lower profit margins, and a higher discount rate, even as they still see robust long term EPS expansion supported by the company's hardware advantages. Analyst Commentary Despite the modest recalibration in price targets, bullish analysts continue to emphasize Royal Caribbean's structural advantages, disciplined capacity growth, and strong earnings trajectory through the back half of the decade.
DASH
US$228.13
DoorDash
7D
-1.7%
1Y
36.0%
NKE
US$61.19
NIKE
7D
6.7%
1Y
-19.1%
NIO
US$5.50
NIO
7D
12.5%
1Y
26.1%

NIO: Chip Licensing And Delivery Ramp Will Support Future Share Upside

Analysts have trimmed their price target on NIO by roughly $1.70 per share, reflecting weaker near term delivery guidance, softer 2026 demand expectations, and heightened competitive pressures, despite resilient revenue growth. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts acknowledge that the reset in expectations around NIO's near term deliveries and 2026 demand has weighed on sentiment, but they continue to highlight several supportive factors for the longer term equity story.
BABA
US$147.36
Alibaba Group Holding
7D
-2.6%
1Y
73.8%

BABA: Cloud AI Monetization Will Drive Stronger Long-Term Earnings Power

Analysts made a marginal upward revision to their fair value estimate for Alibaba Group Holding to approximately $198 per share, reflecting slightly stronger long term cloud and artificial intelligence monetization prospects that more than offset modestly reduced revenue and profit forecasts tied to quick commerce and customer management headwinds. Analyst Commentary Street research on Alibaba remains broadly constructive, with a series of upward price target revisions anchored in improving cloud and artificial intelligence monetization, partly offset by concerns around near term profitability in quick commerce and customer management revenue.
CPNG
US$24.13
Coupang
7D
7.6%
1Y
9.8%

CPNG $40 Upside Will Be Driven By Expanding Profit Margins

Analysts have raised their price target on Coupang to $40 from $36, citing revised post-Q3 estimates that balance slightly lower growth expectations with improving profit margins and a more conservative future earnings multiple. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlighted that the revised $40 price target reflects growing confidence in Coupang's ability to translate scale into sustainable profitability, despite slightly tempered near term growth assumptions.
MCD
US$308.03
McDonald's
7D
-0.9%
1Y
6.3%

MCD: Value Strategy And Cost Tailwinds Will Balance Consumer Traffic Risks

Analysts have nudged their price target on McDonald's slightly higher to $331.20. This reflects modest improvements in projected revenue growth and profit margins, even as they remain cautious about the company's value focus amid ongoing pressure on lower income consumers.
RIVN
US$19.59
Rivian Automotive
7D
-7.3%
1Y
47.3%
MELI
US$2,020.88
MercadoLibre
7D
1.1%
1Y
18.8%

MELI: Rising Competition In Brazil Will Shape Future Profit Margin Trajectory

Our updated narrative price target for MercadoLibre rises to approximately $2,347, up from about $2,106, as analysts balance robust top line momentum and higher assumed revenue growth with a slightly richer valuation multiple and mounting competitive and margin pressures highlighted in recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Street research over the past several weeks reflects a more nuanced and selectively cautious stance on MercadoLibre, with several bearish analysts trimming price targets even as long term growth drivers remain intact.
TSLA
US$454.43
Tesla
7D
-6.4%
1Y
12.5%

TSLA: AI And Autonomy Focus Will Deepen Risks From Weakening Core Demand

Analysts have modestly trimmed their Tesla price target to approximately $391 per share, reflecting slightly higher discount rates and marginally lower long term growth and margin assumptions, even as they continue to see meaningful upside from AI, autonomy and energy storage over time. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Tesla reflects a wide dispersion of views, with some firms leaning into the company’s AI and robotics optionality while others remain focused on execution risk in the core auto and capital intensity of the growth agenda.
SE
US$128.35
Sea
7D
2.1%
1Y
21.0%

SE: Future Share Gains Will Stem From E-Commerce And Fintech Strength

Analysts have nudged our fair value estimate for Sea slightly lower to $191.62 from $192.17, as modestly softer long term margin and valuation assumptions balance solid Q3 execution, recent upgrades, and higher Street price targets tied to stronger multi segment growth and continued investment. Analyst Commentary Street research remains broadly constructive on Sea, with a cluster of recent upgrades and price target increases reflecting confidence in the companys multi segment growth trajectory and ability to reinvest behind its leading positions while still compounding value.
AMZN
US$232.53
Amazon.com
7D
0.06%
1Y
6.0%

AMZN: Expanding AI Cloud Partnerships Will Drive AWS-Led Outperformance Ahead

Analysts nudged their Amazon.com price target slightly higher to approximately $295.53 from about $294.65, citing a modestly lower perceived risk profile and incremental improvements in long term growth and margin assumptions, supported by accelerating AWS momentum, expanding AI partnerships, and resilient retail trends. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight that the near term setup into the holiday season remains favorable, with Amazon positioned to gain further online share even as overall U.S. e commerce growth moderates.
HD
US$346.35
Home Depot
7D
0.4%
1Y
-11.0%

HD: Ongoing Investments And New Tools Will Support Post Headwind Share Gains

We are trimming our Home Depot fair value estimate by about $5 to reflect the Street wide reset in price targets, as analysts factor in weaker near term demand, modestly lower growth and margins, and a slightly higher discount rate, even as they largely maintain positive long term ratings on the stock. Analyst Commentary Street commentary on Home Depot has shifted more cautious in the near term but remains broadly constructive on the company’s long-term earnings power and market share opportunity.