There Are Reasons To Feel Uneasy About China Tourism Group Duty Free's (SHSE:601888) Returns On Capital
Nov 14
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Chinese (SSE) Specialty Stores Industry Analysis
UpdatedNov 21, 2024
DataAggregated Company Financials
Companies21
- 7D-2.6%
- 3M19.8%
- 1Y-17.9%
- YTD-10.2%
Over the last 7 days, the Specialty Stores industry has dropped 2.6%, driven by China Tourism Group Duty Free declining 5.1%. Meanwhile, Shanghai Jin Jiang Online Network Service actually outperformed within the industry, gaining 23% in the last week. Overall the industry is down 18% in 12 months. As for the next few years, earnings are expected to grow by 25% per annum.
Industry Valuation and Performance
Has the Chinese Specialty Stores Industry valuation changed over the past few years?
| Date | Market Cap | Revenue | Earnings | PE | Absolute PE | PS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 21 Nov 2024 | CN¥282.6b | CN¥279.8b | CN¥10.0b | 33.4x | 28.2x | 1x |
| Sat, 19 Oct 2024 | CN¥264.2b | CN¥290.2b | CN¥9.9b | 23.6x | 26.6x | 0.9x |
| Mon, 16 Sep 2024 | CN¥217.8b | CN¥290.2b | CN¥10.0b | 20.5x | 21.9x | 0.8x |
| Wed, 14 Aug 2024 | CN¥255.6b | CN¥441.0b | CN¥8.5b | 21.6x | 30.2x | 0.6x |
| Fri, 12 Jul 2024 | CN¥270.2b | CN¥443.6b | CN¥9.1b | 20.7x | 29.8x | 0.6x |
| Sun, 09 Jun 2024 | CN¥295.5b | CN¥443.6b | CN¥9.1b | 20.8x | 32.6x | 0.7x |
| Tue, 07 May 2024 | CN¥319.6b | CN¥444.1b | CN¥9.1b | 24.4x | 35x | 0.7x |
| Thu, 04 Apr 2024 | CN¥344.4b | CN¥443.2b | -CN¥4,469,041,131.00 | 26x | -77.1x | 0.8x |
| Sat, 02 Mar 2024 | CN¥337.5b | CN¥440.6b | -CN¥1,371,757,890.00 | 24.9x | -246.1x | 0.8x |
| Mon, 29 Jan 2024 | CN¥342.3b | CN¥465.5b | -CN¥2,653,625,060.00 | 26.5x | -129x | 0.7x |
| Wed, 27 Dec 2023 | CN¥329.7b | CN¥463.9b | -CN¥3,761,688,993.00 | 28.7x | -87.7x | 0.7x |
| Fri, 24 Nov 2023 | CN¥374.2b | CN¥463.9b | -CN¥3,761,688,993.00 | 33.1x | -99.5x | 0.8x |
| Sun, 22 Oct 2023 | CN¥378.0b | CN¥470.3b | -CN¥5,835,544,774.00 | 26.1x | -64.8x | 0.8x |
| Tue, 19 Sep 2023 | CN¥428.2b | CN¥470.3b | -CN¥5,835,544,774.00 | 27.4x | -73.4x | 0.9x |
| Thu, 17 Aug 2023 | CN¥442.2b | CN¥455.3b | -CN¥7,392,652,656.00 | 27x | -59.8x | 1x |
| Sat, 15 Jul 2023 | CN¥442.0b | CN¥455.3b | -CN¥7,413,882,882.00 | 26x | -59.6x | 1x |
| Mon, 12 Jun 2023 | CN¥419.8b | CN¥449.9b | -CN¥7,585,519,958.00 | 26.3x | -55.3x | 0.9x |
| Wed, 10 May 2023 | CN¥495.4b | CN¥450.9b | -CN¥6,384,414,687.00 | 24.8x | -77.6x | 1.1x |
| Fri, 07 Apr 2023 | CN¥558.6b | CN¥466.8b | -CN¥24,542,745,286.00 | 25.1x | -22.8x | 1.2x |
| Sun, 05 Mar 2023 | CN¥584.2b | CN¥451.0b | -CN¥24,865,400,085.00 | 24x | -23.5x | 1.3x |
| Tue, 31 Jan 2023 | CN¥619.2b | CN¥452.0b | -CN¥24,673,613,526.00 | 27.5x | -25.1x | 1.4x |
| Thu, 29 Dec 2022 | CN¥615.5b | CN¥452.0b | -CN¥24,673,613,526.00 | 25.6x | -24.9x | 1.4x |
| Sat, 26 Nov 2022 | CN¥523.0b | CN¥451.8b | -CN¥25,722,521,465.00 | 28.8x | -20.3x | 1.2x |
| Mon, 24 Oct 2022 | CN¥505.4b | CN¥454.0b | -CN¥24,766,290,044.00 | 29.2x | -20.4x | 1.1x |
| Wed, 21 Sep 2022 | CN¥528.2b | CN¥454.0b | -CN¥24,767,792,695.00 | 30.1x | -21.3x | 1.2x |
| Fri, 19 Aug 2022 | CN¥530.8b | CN¥492.1b | -CN¥25,471,194,291.00 | 23.8x | -20.8x | 1.1x |
| Sun, 17 Jul 2022 | CN¥555.2b | CN¥498.6b | -CN¥24,336,540,193.00 | 21.3x | -22.8x | 1.1x |
| Tue, 14 Jun 2022 | CN¥520.4b | CN¥498.6b | -CN¥24,336,540,193.00 | 23.8x | -21.4x | 1x |
| Thu, 12 May 2022 | CN¥511.1b | CN¥498.5b | -CN¥24,339,835,896.00 | 20.3x | -21x | 1x |
| Sat, 09 Apr 2022 | CN¥507.9b | CN¥602.2b | CN¥9.6b | 23.6x | 53.1x | 0.8x |
| Mon, 07 Mar 2022 | CN¥594.2b | CN¥597.8b | CN¥9.3b | 24.8x | 63.8x | 1x |
| Wed, 02 Feb 2022 | CN¥594.5b | CN¥598.2b | CN¥9.3b | 23.4x | 63.7x | 1x |
| Fri, 31 Dec 2021 | CN¥627.4b | CN¥597.5b | CN¥11.3b | 24.7x | 55.4x | 1.1x |
| Sun, 28 Nov 2021 | CN¥609.1b | CN¥597.5b | CN¥11.3b | 21.7x | 53.8x | 1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio
53.8x
Current Industry PE
- Investors are pessimistic on the Chinese Specialty Retail industry, indicating that they anticipate long term growth rates will be lower than they have historically.
- The industry is trading at a PE ratio of 28.2x which is higher than its 3-year average PE of -23.7x.
- The industry is trading close to its 3-year average PS ratio of 0.96x.
Past Earnings Growth
- The earnings for companies in the Specialty Retail industry have declined 4.0% per year over the last three years,
- Revenues have also declined 22% per year.
- This means overall sales from these companies are declining and profits are subsequently falling as well.
Industry Trends
Which industries have driven the changes within the Chinese Consumer Discretionary industry?
| CN Market | -3.39% | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -2.72% | |
| Specialty Stores | -2.64% | |
| Automotive Retail | 7.93% | |
| Home Improvement Retail | 0% | |
| Home Furnishing Retail | -0.38% | |
| Apparel Retail | -1.01% | |
| Specialty Stores | -4.38% | |
| Computer and Electronics Retail | -5.58% | |
Industry PE
- Investors are most optimistic about the Automotive Retail industry which is trading above its 3-year average PE ratio of 10.5x.
- It looks like they are confident that earnings will grow faster in the future than they have historically.
Forecasted Growth
- Analysts are most optimistic on the Computer and Electronics Retail industry, expecting annual earnings growth of 112% over the next 5 years.
- In contrast, the Home Furnishing Retail industry is expected to see its earnings grow by 9.0% per year over the next few years.
Top Stock Gainers and Losers
Which companies have driven the market over the last 7 days?
| Company | Last Price | 7D | 1Y | Valuation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 600650 Shanghai Jin Jiang Online Network Service | CN¥19.69 | 32.2% +CN¥2.6b | 104.7% | PE55.1x | |
| 600327 Wuxi Commercial Mansion Grand Orient | CN¥5.51 | 33.4% +CN¥1.2b | 3.8% | PE36.7x | |
| 002356 Shenzhen Hemei GroupLTD | CN¥4.00 | 21.6% +CN¥931.0m | -31.9% | PS26.7x | |
| 603353 Hunan Heshun PetroleumLtd | CN¥16.17 | 15.7% +CN¥374.9m | -51.1% | PE67.9x | |
| 600655 Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) | CN¥6.13 | 1.5% +CN¥349.9m | -4.8% | PE25.1x |
