China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 601888 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

601888 (CN¥225.11) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥166.93)

601888 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	1/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	5/6

601888 Stock Overview

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited operates duty-free shops in China.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 22.71% per year

Earnings grew by 4% over the past year

Pays a reliable dividend of 0.67%

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

China Tourism Group Duty Free Competitors

Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group)

SHSE:600655

CN¥36.3b

Shanghai AiyingshiLtd

SHSE:603214

CN¥2.4b

Hla Group

SHSE:600398

CN¥20.9b

China Grand Automotive Services Group

SHSE:600297

CN¥20.8b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for China Tourism Group Duty Free
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CN¥225.11
52 Week High	CN¥299.00
52 Week Low	CN¥153.59
Beta	1.6
1 Month Change	27.96%
3 Month Change	29.18%
1 Year Change	-19.92%
3 Year Change	160.24%
5 Year Change	697.13%
Change since IPO	2,535.95%

Shareholder Returns

	601888	CN Specialty Retail	CN Market
7D	11.9%	11.4%	2.3%
1Y	-19.9%	-20.6%	-8.1%

Return vs Industry: 601888 matched the CN Specialty Retail industry which returned -20.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 601888 underperformed the CN Market which returned -8.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 601888's price volatile compared to industry and market?
601888 volatility
601888 Average Weekly Movement	7.5%
Specialty Retail Industry Average Movement	7.5%
Market Average Movement	7.3%
10% most volatile stocks in CN Market	10.2%
10% least volatile stocks in CN Market	5.1%

Stable Share Price: 601888 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of CN stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 601888's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1954	14,720	Guoqiang Chen	https://www.ctgdutyfree.com.cn

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited operates duty-free shops in China. The company engages in the wholesale and retail of duty-free commodities, such as tobacco and alcohol, incense, and fine products. It is also involved in travel retail business, as well as commercial complex investment and development business.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Fundamentals Summary

How do China Tourism Group Duty Free's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
601888 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥439.52b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥9.37b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥66.32b

46.9x

P/E Ratio

6.6x

P/S Ratio

Is 601888 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
601888 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥66.32b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥45.42b
Gross Profit	CN¥20.91b
Other Expenses	CN¥11.54b
Earnings	CN¥9.37b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	4.80
Gross Margin	31.53%
Net Profit Margin	14.13%
Debt/Equity Ratio	1.1%

How did 601888 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.7%

Current Dividend Yield

31%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 601888 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 601888?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 601888. This is calculated by dividing 601888's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 601888's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥439.52b

601888 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	6.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	42.1x
PEG Ratio	2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 601888's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

601888 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 601888 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	19.8x
600655 Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group)	10x	11.7%	CN¥36.3b
603214 Shanghai AiyingshiLtd	47.7x	16.4%	CN¥2.4b
600398 Hla Group	8.8x	14.4%	CN¥20.9b
600297 China Grand Automotive Services Group	12.8x	12.5%	CN¥20.8b
601888 China Tourism Group Duty Free	46.9x	22.7%	CN¥439.5b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 601888 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (46.9x) compared to the peer average (19.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 601888's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Specialty Retail Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 601888 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (46.9x) compared to the CN Specialty Retail industry average (23.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 601888's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

601888 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	46.9x
Fair PE Ratio	47.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 601888 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (46.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 601888 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 601888 (CN¥225.11) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥166.93)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 601888 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 601888 is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2.1x)

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Future Growth

How is China Tourism Group Duty Free forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 26 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

22.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 601888's forecast earnings growth (22.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.2%).

Earnings vs Market: 601888's earnings (22.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the CN market (23.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 601888's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: 601888's revenue (22.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the CN market (17.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 601888's revenue (22.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 601888's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (30%)

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Past Performance

How has China Tourism Group Duty Free performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

33.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 601888 has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 601888's current net profit margins (14.1%) are lower than last year (14.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 601888's earnings have grown significantly by 33.8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 601888's earnings growth over the past year (4%) is below its 5-year average (33.8% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 601888 earnings growth over the past year (4%) exceeded the Specialty Retail industry 0.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 601888's Return on Equity (32.2%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is China Tourism Group Duty Free's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 601888's short term assets (CN¥38.2B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥15.4B).

Long Term Liabilities: 601888's short term assets (CN¥38.2B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥3.2B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 601888 has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: 601888's debt to equity ratio has increased from 0.6% to 1.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 601888's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (1703.8%).

Interest Coverage: 601888 earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is China Tourism Group Duty Free current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

0.67%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 601888's dividend (0.67%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (0.47%).

High Dividend: 601888's dividend (0.67%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (1.92%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 601888's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 601888's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (31.3%), 601888's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (64.5%), 601888's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Guoqiang Chen (57 yo)

2.83yrs

Tenure

CN¥7,955,600

Compensation

Mr. Guoqiang Chen has been General Manager and Director at China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (formerly known as China International Travel Service Corporation Limited) since August 30, 2019...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 601888's management team is considered experienced (2.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 601888's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/01 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31