At CN¥73.41, Is It Time To Put China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) On Your Watch List?

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the SHSE over the last few months, increasing to CN¥89.68 at one point, and dropping to the lows of CN¥70.47. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether China Tourism Group Duty Free's current trading price of CN¥73.41 reflective of the actual value of the large-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at China Tourism Group Duty Free’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

See our latest analysis for China Tourism Group Duty Free

What Is China Tourism Group Duty Free Worth?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to our valuation model. It’s trading around 1.2% below our intrinsic value, which means if you buy China Tourism Group Duty Free today, you’d be paying a fair price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth CN¥74.28, then there’s not much of an upside to gain from mispricing. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since China Tourism Group Duty Free’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What kind of growth will China Tourism Group Duty Free generate?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. With profit expected to grow by 45% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for China Tourism Group Duty Free. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? 601888’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on 601888, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

If you'd like to know more about China Tourism Group Duty Free as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. At Simply Wall St, we found 1 warning sign for China Tourism Group Duty Free and we think they deserve your attention.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.