China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited

SHSE:601888 Stock Report

Market Cap: CN¥163.9b

China Tourism Group Duty Free Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

China Tourism Group Duty Free is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 19.3% and 10.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 19.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.7% in 3 years.

Key information

19.3%

Earnings growth rate

19.43%

EPS growth rate

Specialty Retail earnings growth26.4%
Revenue growth rate10.1%
Future return on equity10.70%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated15 Dec 2025

Recent future growth updates

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Apr 01
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Jan 19
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Recent updates

China Tourism Group Duty Free: A Re-Rating Story Waiting to Happen

China Tourism Group Duty Free remains one of the most structurally underestimated consumer plays in China. Despite near-term market volatility and macro uncertainty, the company’s long-term competitive moats—its exclusive duty-free licenses, dominant market share, and unmatched access to Chinese outbound tourism—remain intact and deeply undervalued.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Apr 01
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

China Tourism Group Duty Free's (SHSE:601888) Returns On Capital Not Reflecting Well On The Business

Feb 21
China Tourism Group Duty Free's (SHSE:601888) Returns On Capital Not Reflecting Well On The Business

Investors Aren't Entirely Convinced By China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited's (SHSE:601888) Earnings

Feb 06
Investors Aren't Entirely Convinced By China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited's (SHSE:601888) Earnings

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Jan 19
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) Seems To Use Debt Rather Sparingly

Jan 06
China Tourism Group Duty Free (SHSE:601888) Seems To Use Debt Rather Sparingly

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

SHSE:601888 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CNY Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202767,7885,8656,4996,85623
12/31/202662,6115,1915,8777,50225
12/31/202555,4623,9454,7066,05423
9/30/202553,3153,4005,2046,224N/A
6/30/202553,3603,5845,3456,237N/A
3/31/202554,4133,8996,5477,434N/A
12/31/202456,4744,2676,8207,939N/A
9/30/202459,7245,4275,3876,787N/A
6/30/202462,9476,1319,18810,862N/A
3/31/202465,5786,71911,13513,004N/A
12/31/202367,5406,71413,32515,126N/A
9/30/202365,9055,60911,81314,035N/A
6/30/202362,6414,9586,0208,594N/A
3/31/202358,4204,7682,4205,243N/A
12/31/202254,4335,030-6,411-3,415N/A
9/30/202257,5415,793-2,0951,199N/A
6/30/202259,8008,2351,2484,142N/A
3/31/202266,3249,3694,5407,017N/A
12/31/202167,6769,6546,1748,329N/A
9/30/202166,95811,4653,2314,673N/A
6/30/202168,47910,4683,4664,779N/A
3/31/202162,7609,0107,8799,159N/A
12/31/202052,5986,1406,9678,201N/A
9/30/202047,5973,5814,8976,007N/A
6/30/202043,4942,3693,6034,606N/A
3/31/202042,8922,304-2,325-1,409N/A
12/31/201948,6124,6321,6053,121N/A
9/30/201949,0604,6047433,086N/A
6/30/201950,6864,467N/A3,200N/A
3/31/201951,8504,241N/A4,237N/A
12/31/201847,0073,095N/A2,722N/A
9/30/201841,6393,328N/A4,053N/A
6/30/201836,7993,150N/A3,667N/A
3/31/201831,3502,972N/A4,869N/A
12/31/201728,2822,531N/A3,017N/A
9/30/201726,6892,255N/A2,995N/A
6/30/201724,6952,002N/A2,570N/A
3/31/201722,9411,830N/A1,311N/A
12/31/201622,3901,808N/A1,937N/A
9/30/201621,9421,648N/A1,752N/A
6/30/201621,5391,596N/A1,942N/A
3/31/201621,5261,557N/A1,783N/A
12/31/201521,2921,506N/A1,571N/A
9/30/201521,1941,596N/A1,651N/A
6/30/201521,0021,636N/A1,677N/A
3/31/201520,5281,584N/A1,651N/A
12/31/201419,9361,470N/A1,496N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 601888's forecast earnings growth (19.3% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: 601888's earnings (19.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the CN market (27.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 601888's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 601888's revenue (10.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the CN market (14.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 601888's revenue (10.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 601888's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.7%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/12/16 17:51
End of Day Share Price 2025/12/16 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited is covered by 46 analysts. 25 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ronald LeungBofA Global Research
Yunqiao DuCCB International Securities Limited
Hiu Ying ChuCCB International Securities Limited