China Tourism Group Duty Free Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 601888 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

601888 (CN¥68.32) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥80.96)

Is 601888 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 601888 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 601888 (CN¥68.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥80.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 601888 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 601888?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 601888. This is calculated by dividing 601888's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 601888's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥139.09b

601888 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18.1x
PEG Ratio	1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 601888's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 601888 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	37.2x
600655 Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group)	24.6x	32.7%	CN¥23.3b
603214 Shanghai AiyingshiLtd	24x	7.3%	CN¥2.5b
605136 Shanghai Lily&Beauty CosmeticsLtd	50.5x	56.2%	CN¥2.7b
002780 Beijing Sanfo Outdoor Products	49.9x	n/a	CN¥1.6b
601888 China Tourism Group Duty Free	26x	19.8%	CN¥139.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 601888 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26x) compared to the peer average (37.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 601888's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Specialty Retail Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	26.7%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	26.7%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 601888 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26x) compared to the Asian Specialty Retail industry average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 601888's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

601888 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	26x
Fair PE Ratio	37.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 601888 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 601888 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥68.32	CN¥75.72 +10.8%	15.1%	CN¥105.00	CN¥60.00	n/a	18
Oct ’25	CN¥77.20	CN¥74.65 -3.3%	16.3%	CN¥105.00	CN¥49.00	n/a	19
Sep ’25	CN¥61.01	CN¥86.07 +41.1%	16.7%	CN¥115.20	CN¥65.00	n/a	19
Aug ’25	CN¥67.20	CN¥86.78 +29.1%	15.9%	CN¥115.20	CN¥70.00	n/a	20
Jul ’25	CN¥62.50	CN¥96.47 +54.3%	12.6%	CN¥115.20	CN¥70.00	n/a	20
Jun ’25	CN¥71.00	CN¥98.07 +38.1%	10.8%	CN¥115.20	CN¥80.00	n/a	20
May ’25	CN¥74.90	CN¥98.57 +31.6%	10.3%	CN¥115.20	CN¥80.00	n/a	20
Apr ’25	CN¥87.50	CN¥106.35 +21.5%	13.7%	CN¥146.19	CN¥80.00	n/a	20
Mar ’25	CN¥86.65	CN¥108.14 +24.8%	15.3%	CN¥149.00	CN¥82.00	n/a	22
Feb ’25	CN¥80.95	CN¥113.47 +40.2%	19.2%	CN¥160.00	CN¥82.00	n/a	22
Jan ’25	CN¥83.69	CN¥127.71 +52.6%	18.7%	CN¥183.00	CN¥95.00	n/a	21
Dec ’24	CN¥87.90	CN¥131.23 +49.3%	17.4%	CN¥183.00	CN¥95.00	n/a	21
Nov ’24	CN¥93.84	CN¥133.90 +42.7%	18.2%	CN¥183.00	CN¥95.00	CN¥68.32	21
Oct ’24	CN¥105.97	CN¥153.47 +44.8%	18.9%	CN¥238.00	CN¥114.00	CN¥77.20	22
Sep ’24	CN¥109.35	CN¥163.92 +49.9%	23.3%	CN¥238.00	CN¥114.00	CN¥61.01	23
Aug ’24	CN¥123.64	CN¥182.67 +47.7%	20.7%	CN¥240.00	CN¥119.00	CN¥67.20	21
Jul ’24	CN¥110.53	CN¥209.52 +89.6%	15.6%	CN¥255.00	CN¥122.00	CN¥62.50	22
Jun ’24	CN¥120.95	CN¥220.02 +81.9%	10.3%	CN¥255.00	CN¥159.00	CN¥71.00	22
May ’24	CN¥160.98	CN¥226.58 +40.8%	10.6%	CN¥290.00	CN¥175.00	CN¥74.90	23
Apr ’24	CN¥183.24	CN¥247.97 +35.3%	8.5%	CN¥280.00	CN¥197.00	CN¥87.50	23
Mar ’24	CN¥196.85	CN¥248.88 +26.4%	12.4%	CN¥288.00	CN¥188.88	CN¥86.65	22
Feb ’24	CN¥212.85	CN¥238.79 +12.2%	12.8%	CN¥288.00	CN¥188.88	CN¥80.95	21
Jan ’24	CN¥216.03	CN¥222.51 +3.0%	10.8%	CN¥260.00	CN¥150.00	CN¥83.69	21
Dec ’23	CN¥204.00	CN¥220.66 +8.2%	10.4%	CN¥260.00	CN¥150.00	CN¥87.90	21
Nov ’23	CN¥176.40	CN¥237.46 +34.6%	15.2%	CN¥315.00	CN¥150.00	CN¥93.84	24

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.