China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's shaping up to be a tough period for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888), which a week ago released some disappointing full-year results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥56b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 24%, coming in at just CN¥2.06 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for China Tourism Group Duty Free

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from China Tourism Group Duty Free's 28 analysts is for revenues of CN¥64.8b in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 15% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 21% to CN¥2.50. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥69.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.21 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥72.13, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on China Tourism Group Duty Free's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic China Tourism Group Duty Free analyst has a price target of CN¥105 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥54.50. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting China Tourism Group Duty Free's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 15% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.7% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that China Tourism Group Duty Free is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China Tourism Group Duty Free. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥72.13, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China Tourism Group Duty Free going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for China Tourism Group Duty Free that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.