China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888) missed earnings with its latest annual results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CN¥56b revenue coming in 7.0% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.06 missed the mark badly, arriving some 23% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on China Tourism Group Duty Free after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for China Tourism Group Duty Free from 27 analysts is for revenues of CN¥62.7b in 2025. If met, it would imply a solid 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 17% to CN¥2.42. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥64.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.57 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for China Tourism Group Duty Free

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥70.15 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on China Tourism Group Duty Free, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥105 and the most bearish at CN¥54.10 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the China Tourism Group Duty Free's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that China Tourism Group Duty Free's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.7% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. China Tourism Group Duty Free is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China Tourism Group Duty Free. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥70.15, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple China Tourism Group Duty Free analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with China Tourism Group Duty Free .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.