The Returns On Capital At Loncin Motor (SHSE:603766) Don't Inspire Confidence
Jul 22
Chinese (SSE) Auto Industry Analysis
UpdatedJul 25, 2024
DataAggregated Company Financials
Companies22
- 7D-5.1%
- 3M-6.3%
- 1Y7.8%
- YTD1.7%
Over the last 7 days, the Auto industry has dropped 2.6%, driven by declines in Chongqing Changan Automobile and BAIC BluePark New Energy TechnologyLtd of 7.3% and 18%, respectively. On the other hand Lifan Technology(Group)Co.Ltd is actually up 7.9%. Over the past 12 months, the industry was up 8.3%. As for the next few years, earnings are expected to grow by 24% per annum.
Industry Valuation and Performance
Has the Chinese Auto Industry valuation changed over the past few years?
| Date | Market Cap | Revenue | Earnings | PE | Absolute PE | PS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 25 Jul 2024 | CN¥675.6b | CN¥1.2t | CN¥19.0b | 21.2x | 35.5x | 0.6x |
| Sat, 22 Jun 2024 | CN¥706.9b | CN¥1.2t | CN¥19.1b | 23.6x | 36.9x | 0.6x |
| Mon, 20 May 2024 | CN¥704.7b | CN¥1.2t | CN¥19.1b | 24.9x | 36.8x | 0.6x |
| Wed, 17 Apr 2024 | CN¥726.4b | CN¥1.1t | CN¥19.9b | 23.3x | 36.5x | 0.6x |
| Fri, 15 Mar 2024 | CN¥736.3b | CN¥1.1t | CN¥20.5b | 22.2x | 36x | 0.6x |
| Sun, 11 Feb 2024 | CN¥622.4b | CN¥1.1t | CN¥20.5b | 19.6x | 30.4x | 0.5x |
| Tue, 09 Jan 2024 | CN¥626.1b | CN¥1.1t | CN¥20.4b | 24.6x | 30.7x | 0.5x |
| Thu, 07 Dec 2023 | CN¥737.2b | CN¥1.1t | CN¥20.4b | 25.1x | 36.2x | 0.6x |
| Sat, 04 Nov 2023 | CN¥726.4b | CN¥1.1t | CN¥21.1b | 23.4x | 34.4x | 0.6x |
| Mon, 02 Oct 2023 | CN¥644.8b | CN¥1.2t | CN¥21.2b | 23.9x | 30.4x | 0.6x |
| Wed, 30 Aug 2023 | CN¥615.1b | CN¥1.1t | CN¥18.4b | 23.4x | 33.4x | 0.6x |
| Fri, 28 Jul 2023 | CN¥641.1b | CN¥1.1t | CN¥17.7b | 25.5x | 36.2x | 0.6x |
| Sun, 25 Jun 2023 | CN¥602.0b | CN¥1.1t | CN¥17.7b | 24.5x | 34x | 0.6x |
| Tue, 23 May 2023 | CN¥573.9b | CN¥1.1t | CN¥17.9b | 23.8x | 32x | 0.5x |
| Thu, 20 Apr 2023 | CN¥625.0b | CN¥1.2t | CN¥16.6b | 27.1x | 37.7x | 0.5x |
| Sat, 18 Mar 2023 | CN¥669.7b | CN¥1.2t | CN¥14.9b | 28.9x | 45x | 0.6x |
| Mon, 13 Feb 2023 | CN¥726.8b | CN¥1.2t | CN¥14.7b | 31x | 49.4x | 0.6x |
| Wed, 11 Jan 2023 | CN¥707.2b | CN¥1.2t | CN¥14.7b | 30.1x | 48.1x | 0.6x |
| Fri, 09 Dec 2022 | CN¥728.2b | CN¥1.2t | CN¥14.4b | 26.5x | 50.4x | 0.6x |
| Sun, 06 Nov 2022 | CN¥723.7b | CN¥1.2t | CN¥14.1b | 30.1x | 51.2x | 0.6x |
| Tue, 04 Oct 2022 | CN¥697.8b | CN¥1.2t | CN¥16.5b | 36.4x | 42.4x | 0.6x |
| Thu, 01 Sep 2022 | CN¥763.0b | CN¥1.2t | CN¥19.1b | 37.8x | 39.9x | 0.6x |
| Sat, 30 Jul 2022 | CN¥846.9b | CN¥1.3t | CN¥25.1b | 44.1x | 33.7x | 0.7x |
| Mon, 27 Jun 2022 | CN¥861.9b | CN¥1.3t | CN¥25.1b | 41.5x | 34.4x | 0.7x |
| Wed, 25 May 2022 | CN¥674.9b | CN¥1.3t | CN¥25.1b | 27.3x | 26.9x | 0.5x |
| Fri, 22 Apr 2022 | CN¥597.8b | CN¥1.3t | CN¥32.0b | 26.6x | 18.7x | 0.4x |
| Sun, 20 Mar 2022 | CN¥651.8b | CN¥1.3t | CN¥30.4b | 21.2x | 21.4x | 0.5x |
| Tue, 15 Feb 2022 | CN¥714.2b | CN¥1.3t | CN¥30.4b | 23.8x | 23.5x | 0.5x |
| Thu, 13 Jan 2022 | CN¥791.7b | CN¥1.3t | CN¥30.1b | 28.4x | 26.3x | 0.6x |
| Sat, 11 Dec 2021 | CN¥884.6b | CN¥1.3t | CN¥30.1b | 29.4x | 29.3x | 0.7x |
| Mon, 08 Nov 2021 | CN¥894.3b | CN¥1.3t | CN¥30.0b | 25.5x | 29.8x | 0.7x |
| Wed, 06 Oct 2021 | CN¥828.5b | CN¥1.4t | CN¥31.1b | 24.9x | 26.6x | 0.6x |
| Fri, 03 Sep 2021 | CN¥890.8b | CN¥1.4t | CN¥31.1b | 28.6x | 28.6x | 0.7x |
| Sun, 01 Aug 2021 | CN¥811.4b | CN¥1.4t | CN¥31.1b | 30.3x | 26.1x | 0.6x |
Price to Earnings Ratio
26.1x
Current Industry PE
- Investors are relatively neutral on the Chinese Auto industry at the moment, indicating that they anticipate long term growth rates to remain steady.
- The industry is trading close to its 3-year average PE ratio of 34.3x.
- The industry is trading close to its 3-year average PS ratio of 0.59x.
Past Earnings Growth
- The earnings for companies in the Auto industry have declined 15% per year over the last three years,
- Revenues have also declined 4.5% per year.
- This means overall sales from these companies are declining and profits are subsequently falling as well.
Industry Trends
Which industries have driven the changes within the Chinese Consumer Discretionary industry?
| CN Market | -2.89% | |
| Consumer Discretionary | -5.11% | |
| Auto | -5.08% | |
| Automobile Manufacturers | -5.00% | |
| Motorcycle Manufacturers | -5.77% | |
Industry PE
- Investors are most optimistic about the Automobile Manufacturers industry which is trading above its 3-year average PE ratio of 35.6x.
- Analysts are expecting annual earnings growth of 24.8%, which is higher than its past year's earnings decline of 0.9% per year.
- Investors are most pessimistic about the Motorcycle Manufacturers industry, which is trading below its 3-year average of 33.8x.
Forecasted Growth
- Analysts are most optimistic on the Automobile Manufacturers industry, expecting annual earnings growth of 25% over the next 5 years.
- This is better than its past earnings decline of 0.9% per year.
- In contrast, the Motorcycle Manufacturers industry is expected to see its earnings grow by 22% per year over the next few years.
Top Stock Gainers and Losers
Which companies have driven the market over the last 7 days?
| Company | Last Price | 7D | 1Y | Valuation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 600166 Beiqi Foton MotorLtd | CN¥2.63 | 6.9% +CN¥1.3b | -27.1% | PE24x | |
| 000550 Jiangling Motors Corporation | CN¥24.71 | 2.8% +CN¥578.4m | 33.7% | PE13x | |
| 000572 Haima AutomobileLtd | CN¥3.60 | 10.1% +CN¥542.7m | -23.2% | PS3x | |
| 601777 Lifan Technology(Group)Co.Ltd | CN¥4.49 | 1.1% +CN¥226.1m | 17.8% | PS2.9x | |
| 600099 LinhaiLtd | CN¥6.82 | 6.9% +CN¥96.4m | -27.4% | PE115.9x |
