The Returns On Capital At Guararapes Confecções (BVMF:GUAR3) Don't Inspire Confidence
Jan 16
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Brazilian (BOVESPA) Luxury Industry Analysis
UpdatedJan 17, 2025
DataAggregated Company Financials
Companies13
- 7D1.8%
- 3M-15.8%
- 1Y-32.0%
- YTD4.5%
Over the last 7 days, the Luxury industry has risen 3.1%, driven by gains in Guararapes Confecções and Vulcabras of 11% and 7.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, Veste Estilo actually underperformed within the industry, shrinking 7.3% in the last week. In the past year, the industry is down 32%. As for the next few years, earnings are expected to grow by 36% per annum.
Industry Valuation and Performance
Has the Brazilian Luxury Industry valuation changed over the past few years?
| Date | Market Cap | Revenue | Earnings | PE | Absolute PE | PS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 17 Jan 2025 | R$30.6b | R$32.1b | R$1.1b | 8.2x | 29x | 1x |
| Sun, 15 Dec 2024 | R$30.5b | R$32.1b | R$1.1b | 8x | 29x | 1x |
| Tue, 12 Nov 2024 | R$35.2b | R$30.7b | R$1.0b | 10x | 34x | 1.1x |
| Thu, 10 Oct 2024 | R$36.1b | R$30.2b | R$1.3b | 8.9x | 26.9x | 1.2x |
| Sat, 07 Sep 2024 | R$35.6b | R$31.4b | R$879.1m | 9.9x | 40.5x | 1.1x |
| Mon, 05 Aug 2024 | R$34.0b | R$30.8b | -R$50,805,150.00 | 9.6x | -668.8x | 1.1x |
| Wed, 03 Jul 2024 | R$37.8b | R$36.1b | -R$1,707,621,150.00 | 9.3x | -22.1x | 1x |
| Fri, 31 May 2024 | R$39.0b | R$36.1b | -R$1,707,621,150.00 | 10.2x | -22.8x | 1.1x |
| Sun, 28 Apr 2024 | R$39.8b | R$35.9b | -R$1,948,507,704.00 | 9.5x | -20.4x | 1.1x |
| Tue, 26 Mar 2024 | R$43.2b | R$35.8b | -R$51,886,151.00 | 9.9x | -831.9x | 1.2x |
| Thu, 22 Feb 2024 | R$43.9b | R$35.4b | R$59.4m | 9x | 739.6x | 1.2x |
| Sat, 20 Jan 2024 | R$44.0b | R$35.5b | R$1.6b | 9x | 26.7x | 1.2x |
| Mon, 18 Dec 2023 | R$45.0b | R$35.5b | R$1.6b | 9x | 27.3x | 1.3x |
| Wed, 15 Nov 2023 | R$41.8b | R$36.1b | R$1.7b | 9.1x | 24.3x | 1.2x |
| Fri, 13 Oct 2023 | R$41.2b | R$36.1b | R$1.9b | 9.1x | 22.1x | 1.1x |
| Sun, 10 Sep 2023 | R$43.8b | R$36.1b | R$1.9b | 9.8x | 23.5x | 1.2x |
| Tue, 08 Aug 2023 | R$51.2b | R$36.2b | R$2.0b | 12.7x | 25.4x | 1.4x |
| Thu, 06 Jul 2023 | R$52.2b | R$36.1b | R$2.0b | 12.6x | 26.5x | 1.4x |
| Sat, 03 Jun 2023 | R$47.4b | R$36.1b | R$1.9b | 11.5x | 24.7x | 1.3x |
| Mon, 01 May 2023 | R$40.5b | R$35.5b | R$2.2b | 15.5x | 18.1x | 1.1x |
| Wed, 29 Mar 2023 | R$38.0b | R$34.4b | R$2.2b | 14.9x | 17.3x | 1.1x |
| Fri, 24 Feb 2023 | R$39.6b | R$33.9b | R$2.4b | 9.8x | 16.7x | 1.2x |
| Sun, 22 Jan 2023 | R$42.6b | R$33.9b | R$2.6b | 10.2x | 16.1x | 1.3x |
| Tue, 20 Dec 2022 | R$43.2b | R$33.9b | R$2.6b | 12.4x | 16.4x | 1.3x |
| Thu, 17 Nov 2022 | R$50.7b | R$33.6b | R$2.9b | 9.9x | 17.7x | 1.5x |
| Sat, 15 Oct 2022 | R$56.4b | R$32.5b | R$3.2b | 10x | 17.8x | 1.7x |
| Mon, 12 Sep 2022 | R$58.9b | R$32.5b | R$3.2b | 10.8x | 18.4x | 1.8x |
| Wed, 10 Aug 2022 | R$51.2b | R$30.8b | R$3.3b | 9x | 15.5x | 1.7x |
| Fri, 08 Jul 2022 | R$48.5b | R$30.3b | R$3.2b | 7.5x | 15x | 1.6x |
| Sun, 05 Jun 2022 | R$54.8b | R$29.2b | R$3.2b | 9.1x | 16.9x | 1.9x |
| Tue, 03 May 2022 | R$53.0b | R$28.4b | R$3.1b | 10x | 17x | 1.9x |
| Thu, 31 Mar 2022 | R$61.5b | R$28.5b | R$3.1b | 13.1x | 19.6x | 2.2x |
| Sat, 26 Feb 2022 | R$55.9b | R$27.0b | R$3.1b | 11.6x | 18.2x | 2.1x |
| Mon, 24 Jan 2022 | R$56.4b | R$26.9b | R$3.0b | 11.5x | 18.5x | 2.1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio
18.5x
Current Industry PE
- Investors are optimistic on the Brazilian Luxury industry, and appear confident in long term growth rates.
- The industry is trading at a PE ratio of 27.9x which is higher than its 3-year average PE of 16.9x.
- The 3-year average PS ratio of 1.4x is higher than the industry's current PS ratio of 0.92x.
Past Earnings Growth
- The earnings for companies in the Luxury industry have declined 30% per year over the last three years.
- Meanwhile revenues for these companies have grown 6.0% per year.
- This means that although more sales are being generated, either the cost of doing business or the level of investment back into businesses has increased, which has decreased profits.
Industry Trends
Which industries have driven the changes within the Brazilian Consumer Discretionary industry?
| BR Market | 0.82% | |
| Consumer Discretionary | 0.57% | |
| Luxury | 1.82% | |
| Footwear | 3.41% | |
| Apparel, Accessories and Luxury Goods | 0.79% | |
| Textiles | -2.41% | |
Industry PE
- Investors are most optimistic about the Textiles industry which is trading above its 3-year average PE ratio of 9.9x.
- It looks like they are confident that earnings will grow faster in the future than they have historically.
Forecasted Growth
- Analysts are most optimistic on the Footwear industry, expecting annual earnings growth of 54% over the next 5 years.
- This is better than its past earnings growth rate of 11% per year.
- In contrast, the Apparel, Accessories and Luxury Goods industry is expected to see its earnings grow by 26% per year over the next few years.
Top Stock Gainers and Losers
Which companies have driven the market over the last 7 days?
| Company | Last Price | 7D | 1Y | Valuation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VULC3 Vulcabras | R$16.52 | 4.9% +R$209.6m | -14.0% | PE8.2x | |
| GRND3 Grendene | R$5.45 | 4.4% +R$207.5m | -20.4% | PE7.6x | |
| GUAR3 Guararapes Confecções | R$5.98 | 5.5% +R$154.8m | 8.9% | PE13.9x | |
| CAMB3 Cambuci | R$11.35 | 5.6% +R$25.1m | 3.7% | PE6.4x | |
| VIVA3 Vivara Participações | R$19.07 | 0.5% +R$23.5m | -45.2% | PE9x |
