Returns On Capital Signal Tricky Times Ahead For African Rainbow Minerals (JSE:ARI)
Jun 03
South African (JSE) Metals and Mining Industry Analysis
UpdatedJun 15, 2024
DataAggregated Company Financials
Companies17
- 7D-6.9%
- 3M-3.9%
- 1Y-23.9%
- YTD-16.5%
Over the last 7 days, the Metals and Mining industry has dropped 6.9%, driven by Gold Fields declining 17%. Meanwhile, Merafe Resources actually outperformed within the industry, gaining 6.2% in the last week. Overall the industry is down 24% in 12 months. As for the next few years, earnings are expected to grow by 33% per annum.
Industry Valuation and Performance
Has the South African Metals and Mining Industry valuation changed over the past few years?
| Date | Market Cap | Revenue | Earnings | PE | Absolute PE | PS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 15 Jun 2024 | R846.9b | R689.7b | R13.9b | 6.3x | 60.8x | 1.2x |
| Mon, 13 May 2024 | R1.0t | R689.2b | R14.2b | 7.2x | 71.3x | 1.5x |
| Wed, 10 Apr 2024 | R1.0t | R689.4b | R14.2b | 6.8x | 72.3x | 1.5x |
| Fri, 08 Mar 2024 | R916.2b | R693.4b | R17.0b | 6.1x | 53.8x | 1.3x |
| Sun, 04 Feb 2024 | R982.5b | R732.5b | R93.1b | 7.4x | 10.5x | 1.3x |
| Tue, 02 Jan 2024 | R1.1t | R729.9b | R92.8b | 8.5x | 11.6x | 1.5x |
| Thu, 30 Nov 2023 | R996.6b | R731.8b | R93.6b | 7.5x | 10.6x | 1.4x |
| Sat, 28 Oct 2023 | R873.9b | R732.8b | R93.8b | 7x | 9.3x | 1.2x |
| Mon, 25 Sep 2023 | R1.0t | R817.3b | R95.3b | 9.1x | 10.9x | 1.3x |
| Wed, 23 Aug 2023 | R982.0b | R841.4b | R137.3b | 4.3x | 7.2x | 1.2x |
| Fri, 21 Jul 2023 | R1.2t | R860.7b | R166.7b | 4.5x | 7.3x | 1.4x |
| Sun, 18 Jun 2023 | R1.3t | R870.7b | R175.4b | 4.8x | 7.6x | 1.5x |
| Tue, 16 May 2023 | R1.4t | R891.4b | R182.9b | 4.9x | 7.8x | 1.6x |
| Thu, 13 Apr 2023 | R1.3t | R865.7b | R169.9b | 4.9x | 7.9x | 1.5x |
| Sat, 11 Mar 2023 | R1.2t | R858.2b | R167.8b | 4.6x | 7x | 1.4x |
| Mon, 06 Feb 2023 | R1.4t | R894.4b | R197.9b | 5.5x | 7x | 1.6x |
| Wed, 04 Jan 2023 | R1.4t | R889.4b | R196.8b | 5.7x | 7.2x | 1.6x |
| Fri, 02 Dec 2022 | R1.5t | R888.4b | R196.5b | 5.6x | 7.4x | 1.6x |
| Sun, 30 Oct 2022 | R1.2t | R899.3b | R198.3b | 5x | 6.2x | 1.4x |
| Tue, 27 Sep 2022 | R1.1t | R896.5b | R198.0b | 5x | 5.4x | 1.2x |
| Thu, 25 Aug 2022 | R1.2t | R907.7b | R213.7b | 5.1x | 5.5x | 1.3x |
| Sat, 23 Jul 2022 | R1.1t | R946.2b | R248.3b | 3.9x | 4.5x | 1.2x |
| Mon, 20 Jun 2022 | R1.3t | R936.1b | R246.6b | 4.9x | 5.2x | 1.4x |
| Wed, 18 May 2022 | R1.4t | R934.7b | R245.8b | 5x | 5.7x | 1.5x |
| Fri, 15 Apr 2022 | R1.7t | R923.0b | R243.8b | 6.4x | 6.9x | 1.8x |
| Sun, 13 Mar 2022 | R1.8t | R909.4b | R237.7b | 7.2x | 7.6x | 2x |
| Tue, 08 Feb 2022 | R1.5t | R913.5b | R269.3b | 6.2x | 5.7x | 1.7x |
| Thu, 06 Jan 2022 | R1.5t | R915.9b | R269.8b | 6.2x | 5.5x | 1.6x |
| Sat, 04 Dec 2021 | R1.5t | R920.3b | R270.3b | 5.5x | 5.4x | 1.6x |
| Mon, 01 Nov 2021 | R1.4t | R933.1b | R272.1b | 5.7x | 5.1x | 1.5x |
| Wed, 29 Sep 2021 | R1.2t | R920.7b | R264.2b | 4.9x | 4.6x | 1.3x |
| Fri, 27 Aug 2021 | R1.4t | R890.5b | R258.5b | 5.6x | 5.5x | 1.6x |
| Sat, 03 Jul 2021 | R1.4t | R890.5b | R258.5b | 5.4x | 5.5x | 1.6x |
Price to Earnings Ratio
5.5x
Current Industry PE
- Investors are optimistic on the South African Metals and Mining industry, and appear confident in long term growth rates.
- The industry is trading at a PE ratio of 60.8x which is higher than its 3-year average PE of 12.7x.
- The 3-year average PS ratio of 1.5x is higher than the industry's current PS ratio of 1.2x.
Past Earnings Growth
- The earnings for companies in the Metals and Mining industry have declined 62% per year over the last three years,
- Revenues have also declined 8.2% per year.
- This means overall sales from these companies are declining and profits are subsequently falling as well.
Industry Trends
Which industries have driven the changes within the South African Materials industry?
| ZA Market | 2.02% | |
| Materials | -6.23% | |
| Metals and Mining | -6.87% | |
| Aluminum | 1.62% | |
| Copper | 0.45% | |
| Silver | 0% | |
| Diversified Metals and Mining | -1.55% | |
| Precious Metals and Minerals | -2.60% | |
| Steel | -4.92% | |
| Gold | -12.52% | |
Industry PE
- Investors are most optimistic about the Gold industry, which is trading close to its 3-year average PE ratio of 15.7x.
- Analysts are expecting annual earnings growth of 32.3%, which is higher than its past year's earnings growth of 3.5% per year.
Forecasted Growth
- Analysts are most optimistic on the Precious Metals and Minerals industry, expecting annual earnings growth of 55% over the next 5 years.
- This is better than its past earnings decline of 57% per year.
- In contrast, the Steel industry is expected to see its earnings decline by 11% per year over the next few years.
Top Stock Gainers and Losers
Which companies have driven the market over the last 7 days?
| Company | Last Price | 7D | 1Y | Valuation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRF Merafe Resources | R1.37 | 6.2% +R199.9m | 21.2% | PE2x | |
| MDI Master Drilling Group | R12.39 | 3.3% +R59.1m | -4.7% | PE5x | |
| HLM Hulamin | R3.76 | 1.6% +R18.8m | 28.8% | PE4.3x | |
| CPR Copper 360 | R4.42 | 0.5% +R12.6m | 2.3% | PS88x |
