Weak Statutory Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For NEPI Rockcastle (JSE:NRP)
Mar 30
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South African (JSE) Real Estate Sector Analysis
UpdatedMar 30, 2026
DataAggregated Company Financials
Companies34
- 7D-1.1%
- 3M-3.9%
- 1Y18.4%
- YTD-4.0%
Over the last 7 days, the Real Estate industry has dropped 1.1%, driven by declines in Redefine Properties and Fortress Real Estate Investments of 2.0% and 2.7%, respectively. This takes the industry's 12 month performance to a gain of 18%. Looking forward, earnings are forecast to grow by 11% annually.
Sector Valuation and Performance
Has the South African Real Estate Sector valuation changed over the past few years?
| Date | Market Cap | Revenue | Earnings | PE | Absolute PE | PS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 30 Mar 2026 | R447.2b | R104.4b | R52.1b | 7.7x | 8.6x | 4.3x |
| Wed, 25 Feb 2026 | R496.7b | R100.8b | R49.4b | 8.1x | 10.1x | 4.9x |
| Fri, 23 Jan 2026 | R475.8b | R101.1b | R49.5b | 7.9x | 9.6x | 4.7x |
| Sun, 21 Dec 2025 | R460.6b | R102.4b | R50.6b | 7.6x | 9.1x | 4.5x |
| Tue, 18 Nov 2025 | R458.2b | R102.0b | R48.6b | 9.1x | 9.4x | 4.5x |
| Thu, 16 Oct 2025 | R419.6b | R102.0b | R49.2b | 8x | 8.5x | 4.1x |
| Sat, 13 Sep 2025 | R416.3b | R101.8b | R49.2b | 6.8x | 8.5x | 4.1x |
| Mon, 11 Aug 2025 | R408.4b | R101.9b | R49.4b | 6.8x | 8.3x | 4x |
| Wed, 09 Jul 2025 | R396.1b | R102.1b | R49.5b | 6.4x | 8x | 3.9x |
| Fri, 06 Jun 2025 | R388.4b | R100.4b | R46.3b | 6.4x | 8.4x | 3.9x |
| Sun, 04 May 2025 | R392.0b | R100.2b | R46.8b | 6.4x | 8.4x | 3.9x |
| Tue, 01 Apr 2025 | R367.2b | R99.1b | R46.2b | 6.1x | 7.9x | 3.7x |
| Thu, 27 Feb 2025 | R377.1b | R99.8b | R51.1b | 6.1x | 7.4x | 3.8x |
| Sat, 25 Jan 2025 | R365.9b | R99.0b | R49.8b | 6.1x | 7.4x | 3.7x |
| Mon, 23 Dec 2024 | R380.9b | R98.9b | R49.7b | 6.1x | 7.7x | 3.9x |
| Wed, 20 Nov 2024 | R368.8b | R98.6b | R48.6b | 6.4x | 7.6x | 3.7x |
| Fri, 18 Oct 2024 | R375.5b | R98.0b | R45.5b | 6.8x | 8.2x | 3.8x |
| Sun, 15 Sep 2024 | R381.2b | R97.6b | R45.0b | 7.4x | 8.5x | 3.9x |
| Tue, 13 Aug 2024 | R363.1b | R95.8b | R44.5b | 7.1x | 8.2x | 3.8x |
| Thu, 11 Jul 2024 | R351.0b | R95.4b | R44.1b | 7x | 8x | 3.7x |
| Sat, 08 Jun 2024 | R339.2b | R94.9b | R46.4b | 6.1x | 7.3x | 3.6x |
| Mon, 06 May 2024 | R327.4b | R94.9b | R43.6b | 5.9x | 7.5x | 3.5x |
| Wed, 03 Apr 2024 | R332.2b | R95.1b | R43.8b | 6.7x | 7.6x | 3.5x |
| Fri, 01 Mar 2024 | R305.5b | R85.7b | R31.2b | 7.5x | 9.8x | 3.6x |
| Sun, 28 Jan 2024 | R353.2b | R97.6b | R39.5b | 8.7x | 8.9x | 3.6x |
| Tue, 26 Dec 2023 | R345.7b | R97.6b | R39.5b | 8.6x | 8.7x | 3.5x |
| Thu, 23 Nov 2023 | R316.3b | R97.0b | R39.9b | 8.3x | 7.9x | 3.3x |
| Sat, 21 Oct 2023 | R300.8b | R96.0b | R46.4b | 7.3x | 6.5x | 3.1x |
| Mon, 18 Sep 2023 | R320.5b | R95.5b | R47.9b | 8.2x | 6.7x | 3.4x |
| Wed, 16 Aug 2023 | R336.0b | R93.0b | R47.2b | 7.6x | 7.1x | 3.6x |
| Fri, 14 Jul 2023 | R320.9b | R92.3b | R47.5b | 7.6x | 6.8x | 3.5x |
| Sun, 11 Jun 2023 | R326.1b | R91.5b | R48.6b | 7.3x | 6.7x | 3.6x |
| Tue, 09 May 2023 | R335.4b | R88.4b | R52.7b | 6.1x | 6.4x | 3.8x |
| Thu, 06 Apr 2023 | R328.7b | R85.9b | R41.2b | 6x | 8x | 3.8x |
Price to Earnings Ratio
8x
Current Industry PE
- Investors are relatively neutral on the South African Real Estate industry at the moment, indicating that they anticipate long term growth rates to remain steady.
- The industry is trading close to its 3-year average PE ratio of 8.0x.
- The 3-year average PS ratio of 3.8x is lower than the industry's current PS ratio of 4.3x.
Past Earnings Growth
- The earnings for companies in the Real Estate industry have grown 8.1% per year over the last three years.
- Revenues for these companies have grown 6.7% per year.
- This means that more sales are being generated by these companies overall, and subsequently their profits are increasing too.
Industry Trends
Which industries have driven the changes within the South African Real Estate sector?
| ZA Market | 0.99% | |
| Real Estate | -1.12% | |
| Residential REITs | 0% | 0 |
| Hotel and Resort REITs | 0% | 0 |
| Real Estate | -0.076% | |
| Industrial REITs | -0.53% | |
| Retail REITs | -1.31% | |
| Specialized REITs | -1.68% | |
| REITS | -2.09% | |
| Office REITs | -3.83% | |
Industry PE
- Investors are most optimistic about the Office REITs industry which is trading above its 3-year average PE ratio.
- It looks like they are confident that earnings will grow faster in the future than they have historically.
- Investors are most pessimistic about the Retail REITs industry, which is trading close to its 3-year average of 7.3x.
Forecasted Growth
- Analysts are most optimistic on the Real Estate industry, expecting annual earnings growth of 11% over the next 5 years.
- This is better than its past earnings decline of 5.4% per year.
- In contrast, the Real Estate industry is expected to see its earnings grow by 11% per year over the next few years.
Top Stock Gainers and Losers
Which companies have driven the market over the last 7 days?
| Company | Last Price | 7D | 1Y | Valuation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRP NEPI Rockcastle | R136.42 | 1.2% +R1.1b | 2.9% | PE9.9x | |
| EXP Exemplar REITail | R17.35 | 11.9% +R620.5m | 32.4% | PB1x | |
| VKE Vukile Property Fund | R22.32 | 1.0% +R286.3m | 27.9% | PB0.9x | |
| GRT Growthpoint Properties | R16.14 | 0.1% +R67.8m | 24.6% | PB0.8x | |
| OCT Octodec Investments | R15.62 | 0.7% +R29.3m | 49.6% | PB0.6x |