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South African (JSE) Market Analysis & Valuation

UpdatedMay 01, 2026
DataAggregated Company Financials
Companies200
  • 7D-1.0%
  • 3M-5.5%
  • 1Y20.9%
  • YTD-2.0%

Over the last 7 days, the market has dropped 1.0%, driven by a pullback of 4.2% in the Materials sector. As for the longer term, the market has actually risen by 21% in the last year. As for the next few years, earnings are expected to grow by 16% per annum.

Market Valuation and Performance

Has the South African Market valuation changed over the past few years?

DateMarket CapRevenueEarningsPEAbsolute PEPS
Fri, 01 May 2026R8.0tR5.5tR619.6b9.2x12.9x1.4x
Sun, 29 Mar 2026R7.8tR5.5tR622.2b9.3x12.6x1.4x
Tue, 24 Feb 2026R8.7tR5.3tR585.6b9.7x14.8x1.6x
Thu, 22 Jan 2026R8.5tR5.3tR557.2b9.6x15.2x1.6x
Sat, 20 Dec 2025R8.1tR5.4tR562.1b9.3x14.4x1.5x
Mon, 17 Nov 2025R7.9tR5.5tR570.7b9.6x13.8x1.4x
Wed, 15 Oct 2025R7.8tR5.5tR573.8b9.3x13.6x1.4x
Fri, 12 Sep 2025R7.4tR5.5tR564.7b9x13x1.3x
Sun, 10 Aug 2025R7.2tR5.5tR465.6b8.8x15.5x1.3x
Tue, 08 Jul 2025R7.0tR5.5tR474.7b8.4x14.8x1.3x
Thu, 05 Jun 2025R6.8tR5.4tR432.4b8.5x15.7x1.3x
Sat, 03 May 2025R6.7tR5.3tR424.0b9x15.7x1.2x
Mon, 31 Mar 2025R6.5tR5.3tR422.7b8.6x15.4x1.2x
Wed, 26 Feb 2025R6.4tR5.3tR411.4b9.4x15.5x1.2x
Fri, 24 Jan 2025R6.2tR5.3tR367.9b9.9x16.7x1.2x
Sun, 22 Dec 2024R6.3tR5.3tR364.2b10x17.2x1.2x
Tue, 19 Nov 2024R6.3tR5.3tR343.1b10x18.2x1.2x
Thu, 17 Oct 2024R6.4tR5.1tR338.6b10.3x18.8x1.2x
Sat, 14 Sep 2024R6.0tR5.2tR334.1b9.7x18.1x1.2x
Mon, 12 Aug 2024R5.9tR5.2tR417.7b9.6x14.1x1.1x
Wed, 10 Jul 2024R5.8tR5.1tR458.7b9.2x12.7x1.1x
Fri, 07 Jun 2024R5.5tR5.3tR437.9b8.7x12.5x1x
Sun, 05 May 2024R5.5tR5.3tR432.5b8.6x12.8x1x
Tue, 02 Apr 2024R5.5tR5.3tR433.8b8.7x12.6x1x
Thu, 29 Feb 2024R5.4tR5.3tR517.0b9x10.4x1x
Sat, 27 Jan 2024R5.7tR5.4tR541.7b9.4x10.5x1x
Mon, 25 Dec 2023R5.7tR5.4tR540.1b9.3x10.6x1.1x
Wed, 22 Nov 2023R5.6tR5.4tR538.3b9.1x10.4x1x
Fri, 20 Oct 2023R5.4tR5.5tR547.4b9x9.8x1x
Sun, 17 Sep 2023R5.6tR5.5tR556.5b9x10.1x1x
Tue, 15 Aug 2023R5.9tR5.4tR632.0b8.4x9.4x1.1x
Thu, 13 Jul 2023R5.9tR5.4tR656.0b8.5x9x1.1x
Sat, 10 Jun 2023R7.5tR5.4tR655.0b8.3x11.4x1.4x
Mon, 08 May 2023R6.1tR5.3tR669.3b8.3x9.1x1.1x
Price to Earnings Ratio

9.1x


Total Market Cap: R6.1tTotal Earnings: R669.3bTotal Revenue: R5.3tTotal Market Cap vs Earnings and Revenue0%0%0%
South African Market Price to Earnings3Y Average 13.5x202420252026
Current Market PE
  • Investors are relatively neutral on the South African market at the moment, indicating that they expect earnings will grow in line with historical growth rates.
  • The market is trading close to its 3-year average PE ratio of 13.5x.
Past Earnings Growth
  • The earnings for South African listed companies have declined 2.5% per year over the last three years.
  • Meanwhile revenues have been flat.
  • This means that either the cost of doing business or the level of investment back into businesses is increasing since sales have remained steady while profits have fallen.

Sector Trends

Which sectors have driven the changes within the South African Market?

ZA Market-1.02%
Energy5.92%
Tech2.77%
Industrials2.16%
Financials0.39%
Healthcare0.064%
Utilities0%0
Consumer Staples-0.083%
Telecom-0.43%
Consumer Discretionary-0.69%
Real Estate-0.86%
Materials-4.15%
Sector PE
  • Investors favour the Energy sector the most for future growth, which is trading above its 3-year average PE ratio of 8.4x.
    • The market's confidence is likely because analysts are expecting annual earnings growth of 25.5% which is higher than its past year's earnings decline of 2.1% per year.
Forecasted Growth
  • Analysts are most optimistic on the Healthcare sector, expecting annual earnings growth of 47% over the next 5 years.
  • This is better than its past earnings growth rate of 17% per year.
  • In contrast, the Consumer Discretionary sector is expected to see its earnings grow by 3.5% per year over the next few years.

Top Stock Gainers and Losers

Which companies have driven the market over the last 7 days?

CompanyLast Price7D1YValuationSector
SBK Standard Bank GroupR320.492.7%
+R13.6b		35.7%PB1.8xFinancials
SOL SasolR230.007.2%
+R10.0b		256.6%PE61.6xMaterials
MTN MTN GroupR209.001.2%
+R4.5b		71.4%PE18.9xTelecom
EXX Exxaro ResourcesR219.915.0%
+R2.4b		40.2%PE6.8xEnergy
TGA Thungela ResourcesR145.258.6%
+R1.5b		56.2%PS0.6xEnergy
See more

Market Insights

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Latest News

TGA
R145.25
Thungela Resources
7D
8.6%
1Y
56.2%
SOL
R230.00
Sasol
7D
7.2%
1Y
256.6%

SOL: Severe EPS Collapse Will Undermine Higher Margin Outlook And Future P/E Assumptions

Analysts have raised their price target for Sasol from ZAR117.00 to approximately ZAR151.63, reflecting updated assumptions that include a slightly lower discount rate, revised revenue expectations, higher profit margin forecasts, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Updated fiscal year 2026 guidance keeps most targets unchanged.
EXX
R219.91
Exxaro Resources
7D
5.0%
1Y
40.2%
MTN
R209.00
MTN Group
7D
1.2%
1Y
71.4%

MTN: Lower Discount Rate And Higher Margins Will Support Repriced Earnings Multiple

Narrative Update on MTN Group The analyst price target for MTN Group has been raised from ZAR230 to ZAR280, with analysts pointing to a lower discount rate, a higher projected profit margin of 20.64%, and a reduced future P/E assumption of 10.53 as key drivers of the revision. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts initiating coverage on MTN Group with a positive stance are broadly aligned with the recent increase in the price target to ZAR280.
HAR
R263.42
Harmony Gold Mining
7D
-4.6%
1Y
-6.4%

HAR: Dividend Strength And Steady Guidance Will Support Further Share Upside

Analysts have reiterated their ZAR fair value estimate for Harmony Gold Mining while fine tuning their inputs, including a slightly higher discount rate, modestly stronger revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a marginally lower future P/E. Together, these adjustments leave the overall price target in ZAR terms unchanged.
IMP
R232.26
Impala Platinum Holdings
7D
-4.0%
1Y
106.2%

IMP: Strong Earnings Outlook And Higher P/E Multiple Will Support Share Price

Analysts have raised their price target on Impala Platinum Holdings to around ZAR 529 from about ZAR 310, citing updated expectations that reflect higher modelled revenue growth, a revised assumed profit margin profile, and a higher future P/E multiple in their valuation work. What's in the News Management issued earnings guidance for the six months ended 31 December 2025, indicating headline earnings and headline earnings per share are expected to be higher by a little over 4x compared with the prior period.
VOD
R141.31
Vodacom Group
7D
-3.0%
1Y
3.4%

VOD: Neutral UBS Initiation And Margin Risks Will Likely Cap Upside

Analysts keep their ZAR fair value estimate steady at ZAR130.00 for Vodacom Group, pointing to slightly lower revenue growth expectations, a modestly higher profit margin outlook, and a marginally lower future P/E assumption, supported by recent neutral initiation commentary from UBS and peers. Analyst Commentary Recent neutral commentary highlights a mixed setup for Vodacom Group, with the ZAR130.00 fair value estimate held steady but framed by a cautious tone on revenue growth, margins, and the future P/E assumption.
SSW
R49.67
Sibanye Stillwater
7D
-6.6%
1Y
135.4%

SSW: Higher Discount Rates And Margin Assumptions Will Shape Future Returns

Analysts have trimmed their Sibanye Stillwater price target by ZAR2, reflecting slightly higher discount rate assumptions and more cautious revenue growth expectations. This is partly offset by a modestly stronger profit margin outlook and a marginally lower future P/E multiple.
VAL
R1,335.00
Valterra Platinum
7D
-5.6%
1Y
110.9%
CPI
R4,325.17
Capitec Bank Holdings
7D
-1.7%
1Y
27.0%
SBK
R320.49
Standard Bank Group
7D
2.7%
1Y
35.7%

SBK: Future Dividend And Stable Earnings Will Underpin Fairly Valued Outlook

Analysts have adjusted their price target for Standard Bank Group slightly higher to ZAR337.10 from ZAR333.77, reflecting small refinements to fair value estimates, discount rate assumptions and the expected future P/E multiple. What's in the News The board has declared final gross cash dividend No. 112 of 878.00 cents per ordinary share to shareholders on the register at close of business on 17 April 2026 (company announcement).
NPH
R320.00
Northam Platinum Holdings
7D
-6.5%
1Y
153.4%

NPH: Higher Required Returns Will Pressure Optimistic Margin And P/E Assumptions

Analysts have raised their price target on Northam Platinum Holdings from ZAR131.11 to ZAR270.00, citing updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples, along with a more positive stance in recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Even with a higher price target framework on Northam Platinum Holdings, not all research has been uniformly positive.
GFI
R712.00
Gold Fields
7D
-5.9%
1Y
80.5%

GFI: Rich Payouts And Higher Costs Will Pressure Future Returns

Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for Gold Fields to ZAR700 from ZAR680, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, profit margins and an adjusted future P/E multiple, informed by recent changes to Street price targets and ratings. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary on Gold Fields has been mixed, with several research houses updating price targets and ratings in quick succession.
NED
R267.14
Nedbank Group
7D
1.2%
1Y
4.1%

NED: Future Returns Will Improve As Earnings Delivery Supports Higher Fair Value

The analyst price target for Nedbank Group has shifted from ZAR293.64 to about ZAR310.61, with analysts pointing to updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and future P/E, as well as mixed recent research views following a Neutral reinstatement and a downgrade. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the updated assumptions on revenue growth and profit margins as consistent with a business that they see as capable of supporting the higher target price of about ZAR310.61, even after factoring in a revised discount rate and future P/E.
FSR
R88.23
FirstRand
7D
0.3%
1Y
19.9%

FSR: Revised Risk Assumptions Will Support Richer Margins And Stronger Future Returns

Analysts have nudged their FirstRand fair value estimate slightly higher to around ZAR104.45 from about ZAR104.14, citing updated assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E after recent research including Citi's downgrade. Analyst Commentary Recent research has prompted a modest reassessment of FirstRand, with analysts refining their assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E.
SLM
R85.57
Sanlam
7D
0.7%
1Y
-1.2%