Novavax (NVAX) Stock Overview
A biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 4/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 1/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
NVAX Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Novavax, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$9.06 |
| 52 Week High | US$11.97 |
| 52 Week Low | US$6.13 |
| Beta | 2.37 |
| 1 Month Change | 2.49% |
| 3 Month Change | 4.74% |
| 1 Year Change | 17.05% |
| 3 Year Change | 20.16% |
| 5 Year Change | -93.79% |
| Change since IPO | -88.68% |
Recent News & Updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 12
Novavax: Betting On This Vaccine Maker's Turnaround Story, After Pfizer Deal
Summary Novavax receives a Hold rating, reflecting neutral fundamentals despite a Q1 earnings beat and strong recent price momentum. NVAX's upside hinges on executing strategic partnerships, notably with Pfizer, and advancing its vaccine pipeline amid sector tailwinds from infectious disease outbreaks. Profitability remains elusive, with negative equity and choppy cash flow; consensus expects no positive EPS until at least 2028. Valuation implies nearly 40% upside to Wall Street's $14.11 target, but technicals and seasonal demand volatility temper conviction in a sustained rally. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 26
NVAX: Bearish View Will Hinge On Sustained COVID Vaccination Demand
Analysts have raised their blended price targets for Novavax by about $1 per share to a range of around $7 to $8, citing updated assumptions for COVID demand, refreshed 2026 revenue and expense forecasts, and the contribution from recent partnership agreements. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Novavax reflects a mix of caution and tempered expectations, even as price targets move slightly higher into the mid single digit range.Narrative Update • Apr 11
NVAX: Bearish View Will Hinge On Future COVID Demand Execution
Analysts have modestly lifted their average price targets on Novavax shares, with several moving from the $6 to $7 range toward $8 as they update COVID demand assumptions and incorporate new guidance on future revenue, operating expenses, and licensing income. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Novavax reflects a cautious tone, even as some targets edge higher.Narrative Update • Mar 28
NVAX: Bearish Outlook Will Depend On Pfizer Royalty And COVID Demand Assumptions
Novavax's average analyst price target has edged higher by about $1, as analysts refine their COVID assumptions, update revenue and expense forecasts for future years, and factor recent partnership economics into their models. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Novavax points to a cautious tone, even as price targets move slightly higher.Narrative Update • Mar 14
NVAX: Cautious Outlook Will Hinge On Future Pfizer Royalty Execution
Narrative Update on Novavax The analyst price target for Novavax has increased by about $1 to a new consensus of $7, as analysts adjust their models for updated COVID demand assumptions, refreshed 2026 revenue and expense forecasts, and the impact of recent partnership and licensing agreements. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Novavax points to a mixed but generally cautious stance.
Narrative Update • Feb 27
NVAX: Licensing And Royalty Streams Will Drive Future Cash Generation
Analysts have lifted their average price target on Novavax to about $13.78 from roughly $13.11, citing updated COVID demand assumptions, refreshed revenue and expense forecasts, and revised P/E expectations that incorporate recent guidance and licensing agreements. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a mix of cautious optimism and ongoing concern, with several firms adjusting their price targets and underlying models around Novavax's COVID franchise, expense profile, and licensing income.Analysis Article • Jan 14
Improved Revenues Required Before Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Stock's 32% Jump Looks Justified
Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 32% in the last...Narrative Update • Nov 08
NVAX: Shifting To Licensing Will Drive Royalties And Upfront Payments
Novavax's analyst price target has been modestly reduced from $13.21 to $13.11 per share. This change reflects analysts' cautious optimism about the company's new licensing model, expected royalties, and commercial partnership opportunities.Narrative Update • Oct 24
Confidence In Licensing Shift And Partnerships Will Drive Opportunities Ahead
The analyst price target for Novavax has been raised from $12.50 to $13.21. This reflects analyst confidence in the company’s transition to a licensing model as well as opportunities for revenue from new partnerships and technology platforms.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Global Vaccine Market Will Unlock Upside Despite Execution Risks
Novavax’s consensus price target was modestly reduced, primarily due to a slight decline in its future P/E ratio, bringing fair value down from $12.86 to $12.50. What's in the News Reports indicate that the Trump administration and Robert F.Analysis Article • May 20
Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Shares Fly 29% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth
Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 29% in the last...Seeking Alpha • Apr 28
Novavax: Grandiose Ambitions, Smart Strategy, But FDA Decision Adds To Challenges
Summary Novavax's recent performance shows improvement, but significant challenges persist, impacting long-term growth and stability. The company's financials have strengthened due to strategic moves, yet uncertainties in its COVID-19 vaccine remain. NVAX stock's rating maintained at "Hold" despite ongoing hurdles based on improved cash position and potential future opportunities. Investors should remain cautious, balancing optimism with awareness of persistent risks and market volatility. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Apr 22
Sanofi Partnership And Pipeline Programs Will Expand Future Markets
Strategic partnerships and new vaccine programs could significantly boost Novavax's future revenue and market expansion efforts.Seeking Alpha • Apr 11
Novavax: Regulatory Uncertainty Creates Risk And Opportunity For Beaten-Down Vaccine Developer
Summary Novavax's $500M Sanofi partnership with a potential $700M in milestones provides stability as the company transitions to a partnership-focused strategy. Health Secretary Kennedy's claim that single-antigen vaccines don't work for respiratory diseases caused Novavax stock to plummet 20%. FDA approval delay for Nuvaxovid jeopardizes a crucial $175M milestone payment, though Novavax has the financial flexibility to survive this setback. Despite significant regulatory and competitive risks, NVAX stock maintains a "Hold" rating as a speculative component for barbell portfolios. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Apr 02
The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Novavax, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NVAX) Revenues Yet As Shares Tumble 28%
Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 28...Analysis Article • Mar 12
Some Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Analysts Just Made A Major Cut To Next Year's Estimates
Today is shaping up negative for Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial...Seeking Alpha • Jan 16
Novavax Cashes In On Its COVID Albatross -- Challenges Remain (Rating Upgrade)
Summary I have been warning about Novavax's risks since 2016, highlighting its ongoing struggles with the FDA. Novavax's Q3 2024 earnings call and 10-Q reveal a collaboration negotiated from a position of relative weakness. The partnership with Sanofi offers significant benefits but does not assure it of ongoing success. My analysis remains cautious, emphasizing the need for careful consideration of Novavax's long-term viability and strategic moves. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Dec 17
Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Shares Fly 26% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth
Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last...Analysis Article • Nov 15
Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$16.67 Price Target
Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of...Seeking Alpha • Nov 13
Novavax Q3 Earnings Disappoint, But A Turnaround May Be Underway
Summary Novavax reported a net loss of $0.76/share and $84.5M in revenue, beating estimates but cutting guidance due to lower COVID-19 vaccine sales. Revenue has declined since 2022, prompting a substantial cost reduction program set to refocus the company on 4 key value drivers. A collaboration with Sanofi offers flexibility and potential growth, allowing Novavax to focus on developing a COVID-19/influenza combination (CIC) and seasonal influenza vaccines. Despite effective products, reduced guidance and restructuring uncertainty make NVAX stock a hold, with the Sanofi partnership and upcoming milestones as a potential bullish catalyst. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 01
Novavax, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NVAX) 35% Dip In Price Shows Sentiment Is Matching Revenues
Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month...Seeking Alpha • Oct 31
Novavax Q3 Earnings A Week Away - Time To Accept A New Reality
Summary Novavax' Q3 earnings are due on 6th November. The vaccine developer was part of Operation Warp Speed, receiving $1.8bn of funding from the US government to develop a COVID vaccine. Novavax succeeded, but Nuvaxovid came to the market too late to build market share and the company ended up making heavy losses. Sanofi has acquired the rights to nuvaxovid, paying Novavax $500m upfront, and will look to develop a COVID / Influenza combo vaccine using Novavax' technology. Unfortunately, Sanofi milestones and revenues aside, that leaves Novavax with few opportunities to generate revenue, which likely means its valuation will fall over time. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 01
Novavax's Future Hinges On Sanofi Deal And Upcoming Milestones
Summary Novavax has secured a transformative partnership with Sanofi, which includes $1.2 billion in potential payments and critical commercial support. The company’s COVID-19 vaccine targets the JN.1 variant, but newer Omicron variants have outpaced it, limiting competitive advantage. Financial stability hinges on achieving key milestones in the Sanofi partnership and successful commercialization of new vaccines. Despite the Sanofi deal, maintaining a "hold" position is prudent given the high-risk nature of Novavax's future prospects. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Aug 14
Novavax, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NVAX) Shares Lagging The Industry But So Is The Business
Novavax, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2x might make it look like a strong buy right now...Seeking Alpha • Aug 13
Novavax: Staying Long Despite Coming Up Short In Q2
Summary Novavax reported Q2 earnings with a miss on EPS and revenue, causing a drop in share price, but recovered after the earnings call. Novavax is making progress with internal vaccine candidates, Sanofi partnership, and potential market opportunities, despite disappointing Q2 earnings. I provide my thoughts on the quarter, and will highlight a few downside risks that investors should consider. I discuss my updated NVAX strategy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 26
Novavax Ahead Of Q2 Earnings - Picking Apart The Sanofi Deal
Summary Novavax's Q1 2024 earnings were so-so, but a major partnership with Sanofi sent its share price soaring by 200%. The Sanofi deal provides essential funding but restricts Novavax's future earning potential, making it reliant on revenue streams from Sanofi. Novavax's long-term prospects may be challenging as it may struggle to develop new products and could see its revenue streams dry up post-2025. In this review ahead of Q2 earnings (to be announced on August 6) I take a deeper look at the Sanofi deal, and what to expect from Q2 earnings. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| NVAX | US Biotechs | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -4.6% | -1.8% | -0.3% |
| 1Y | 17.1% | 32.7% | 24.1% |
Return vs Industry: NVAX underperformed the US Biotechs industry which returned 32.7% over the past year.
Return vs Market: NVAX underperformed the US Market which returned 24.1% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| NVAX volatility | |
|---|---|
| NVAX Average Weekly Movement | 10.3% |
| Biotechs Industry Average Movement | 10.9% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.2% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.2% |
Stable Share Price: NVAX has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: NVAX's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1987 | 749 | John Jacobs | www.novavax.com |
Novavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company commercializes Nuvaxovid, a COVID-19 vaccine; and R21 Matrix-M adjuvant malaria vaccine. It has license and collaboration agreements with Sanofi, Pfizer Inc., Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, and Serum Life Sciences Limited for the to develop, manufacture, and commercialize the COVID-19 vaccine.
Novavax, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| NVAX fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$1.49b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$87.83m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$596.34m |
2.5x
P/S Ratio-17.0x
P/E RatioIs NVAX overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| NVAX income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$596.34m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$432.38m |
| Gross Profit | US$163.96m |
| Other Expenses | US$251.79m |
| Earnings | -US$87.83m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -0.53 |
| Gross Margin | 27.49% |
| Net Profit Margin | -14.73% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | -201.0% |
How did NVAX perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/18 14:06 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/15 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Novavax, Inc. is covered by 24 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Alec Stranahan | BofA Global Research |
| David Lebowitz | Brean Capital Historical (Janney Montgomery) |
| Mayank Mamtani | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |