Novavax Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 0/6
Novavax has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 49.9%, while the Biotechs industry saw earnings growing at 36.2% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 7.7% per year.
Key information
49.89%
Earnings growth rate
53.82%
EPS growth rate
| Biotechs Industry Growth | 17.04% |
| Revenue growth rate | -7.72% |
| Return on equity | n/a |
| Net Margin | -14.73% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 02
NVAX: Bearish View Will Hinge On Sustained COVID Vaccine Demand Beyond XFG Update
Analysts have lifted their Novavax price target to $9 from $8, citing updated assumptions around slower revenue declines, higher profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple as key drivers of the change. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a more cautious tone around Novavax, even as price targets are adjusted.Seeking Alpha • May 30
Novavax: The Pivot To A Royalty Model Is Working, But It's Still A Hold
Summary Novavax maintains a Hold rating as it transitions to a royalty-driven model, with shrinking direct product sales and a focus on partner revenue. NVAX's COVID-19/flu vaccine partnership with Sanofi is operationally ready, but the seasonal COVID-19 market remains niche and unlikely to drive significant upside. Q1 2026 revenue was $140 million, with guidance reaffirmed at $230–$270 million for the year, mostly from royalties; cash runway extends into 2028. Pipeline catalysts, including C. diff vaccine progress and milestone inflows, are largely priced in; meaningful upside requires clinical and financial differentiation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 26
NVAX: Bearish View Will Hinge On Sustained COVID Vaccination Demand
Analysts have raised their blended price targets for Novavax by about $1 per share to a range of around $7 to $8, citing updated assumptions for COVID demand, refreshed 2026 revenue and expense forecasts, and the contribution from recent partnership agreements. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Novavax reflects a mix of caution and tempered expectations, even as price targets move slightly higher into the mid single digit range.Narrative Update • Apr 11
NVAX: Bearish View Will Hinge On Future COVID Demand Execution
Analysts have modestly lifted their average price targets on Novavax shares, with several moving from the $6 to $7 range toward $8 as they update COVID demand assumptions and incorporate new guidance on future revenue, operating expenses, and licensing income. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Novavax reflects a cautious tone, even as some targets edge higher.Narrative Update • Mar 28
NVAX: Bearish Outlook Will Depend On Pfizer Royalty And COVID Demand Assumptions
Novavax's average analyst price target has edged higher by about $1, as analysts refine their COVID assumptions, update revenue and expense forecasts for future years, and factor recent partnership economics into their models. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Novavax points to a cautious tone, even as price targets move slightly higher.Narrative Update • Mar 14
NVAX: Cautious Outlook Will Hinge On Future Pfizer Royalty Execution
Narrative Update on Novavax The analyst price target for Novavax has increased by about $1 to a new consensus of $7, as analysts adjust their models for updated COVID demand assumptions, refreshed 2026 revenue and expense forecasts, and the impact of recent partnership and licensing agreements. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Novavax points to a mixed but generally cautious stance.
Narrative Update • Feb 27
NVAX: Licensing And Royalty Streams Will Drive Future Cash Generation
Analysts have lifted their average price target on Novavax to about $13.78 from roughly $13.11, citing updated COVID demand assumptions, refreshed revenue and expense forecasts, and revised P/E expectations that incorporate recent guidance and licensing agreements. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a mix of cautious optimism and ongoing concern, with several firms adjusting their price targets and underlying models around Novavax's COVID franchise, expense profile, and licensing income.Analysis Article • Jan 14
Improved Revenues Required Before Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Stock's 32% Jump Looks Justified
Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 32% in the last...Narrative Update • Nov 08
NVAX: Shifting To Licensing Will Drive Royalties And Upfront Payments
Novavax's analyst price target has been modestly reduced from $13.21 to $13.11 per share. This change reflects analysts' cautious optimism about the company's new licensing model, expected royalties, and commercial partnership opportunities.Narrative Update • Oct 24
Confidence In Licensing Shift And Partnerships Will Drive Opportunities Ahead
The analyst price target for Novavax has been raised from $12.50 to $13.21. This reflects analyst confidence in the company’s transition to a licensing model as well as opportunities for revenue from new partnerships and technology platforms.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Global Vaccine Market Will Unlock Upside Despite Execution Risks
Novavax’s consensus price target was modestly reduced, primarily due to a slight decline in its future P/E ratio, bringing fair value down from $12.86 to $12.50. What's in the News Reports indicate that the Trump administration and Robert F.Analysis Article • May 20
Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Shares Fly 29% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth
Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 29% in the last...Seeking Alpha • Apr 28
Novavax: Grandiose Ambitions, Smart Strategy, But FDA Decision Adds To Challenges
Summary Novavax's recent performance shows improvement, but significant challenges persist, impacting long-term growth and stability. The company's financials have strengthened due to strategic moves, yet uncertainties in its COVID-19 vaccine remain. NVAX stock's rating maintained at "Hold" despite ongoing hurdles based on improved cash position and potential future opportunities. Investors should remain cautious, balancing optimism with awareness of persistent risks and market volatility. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Apr 22
Sanofi Partnership And Pipeline Programs Will Expand Future Markets
Strategic partnerships and new vaccine programs could significantly boost Novavax's future revenue and market expansion efforts.Seeking Alpha • Apr 11
Novavax: Regulatory Uncertainty Creates Risk And Opportunity For Beaten-Down Vaccine Developer
Summary Novavax's $500M Sanofi partnership with a potential $700M in milestones provides stability as the company transitions to a partnership-focused strategy. Health Secretary Kennedy's claim that single-antigen vaccines don't work for respiratory diseases caused Novavax stock to plummet 20%. FDA approval delay for Nuvaxovid jeopardizes a crucial $175M milestone payment, though Novavax has the financial flexibility to survive this setback. Despite significant regulatory and competitive risks, NVAX stock maintains a "Hold" rating as a speculative component for barbell portfolios. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Apr 02
The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Novavax, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NVAX) Revenues Yet As Shares Tumble 28%
Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 28...Analysis Article • Mar 12
Some Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Analysts Just Made A Major Cut To Next Year's Estimates
Today is shaping up negative for Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial...Seeking Alpha • Jan 16
Novavax Cashes In On Its COVID Albatross -- Challenges Remain (Rating Upgrade)
Summary I have been warning about Novavax's risks since 2016, highlighting its ongoing struggles with the FDA. Novavax's Q3 2024 earnings call and 10-Q reveal a collaboration negotiated from a position of relative weakness. The partnership with Sanofi offers significant benefits but does not assure it of ongoing success. My analysis remains cautious, emphasizing the need for careful consideration of Novavax's long-term viability and strategic moves. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Dec 17
Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Shares Fly 26% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth
Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last...Analysis Article • Nov 15
Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$16.67 Price Target
Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of...Seeking Alpha • Nov 13
Novavax Q3 Earnings Disappoint, But A Turnaround May Be Underway
Summary Novavax reported a net loss of $0.76/share and $84.5M in revenue, beating estimates but cutting guidance due to lower COVID-19 vaccine sales. Revenue has declined since 2022, prompting a substantial cost reduction program set to refocus the company on 4 key value drivers. A collaboration with Sanofi offers flexibility and potential growth, allowing Novavax to focus on developing a COVID-19/influenza combination (CIC) and seasonal influenza vaccines. Despite effective products, reduced guidance and restructuring uncertainty make NVAX stock a hold, with the Sanofi partnership and upcoming milestones as a potential bullish catalyst. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 01
Novavax, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NVAX) 35% Dip In Price Shows Sentiment Is Matching Revenues
Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month...Seeking Alpha • Oct 31
Novavax Q3 Earnings A Week Away - Time To Accept A New Reality
Summary Novavax' Q3 earnings are due on 6th November. The vaccine developer was part of Operation Warp Speed, receiving $1.8bn of funding from the US government to develop a COVID vaccine. Novavax succeeded, but Nuvaxovid came to the market too late to build market share and the company ended up making heavy losses. Sanofi has acquired the rights to nuvaxovid, paying Novavax $500m upfront, and will look to develop a COVID / Influenza combo vaccine using Novavax' technology. Unfortunately, Sanofi milestones and revenues aside, that leaves Novavax with few opportunities to generate revenue, which likely means its valuation will fall over time. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 01
Novavax's Future Hinges On Sanofi Deal And Upcoming Milestones
Summary Novavax has secured a transformative partnership with Sanofi, which includes $1.2 billion in potential payments and critical commercial support. The company’s COVID-19 vaccine targets the JN.1 variant, but newer Omicron variants have outpaced it, limiting competitive advantage. Financial stability hinges on achieving key milestones in the Sanofi partnership and successful commercialization of new vaccines. Despite the Sanofi deal, maintaining a "hold" position is prudent given the high-risk nature of Novavax's future prospects. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Aug 14
Novavax, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NVAX) Shares Lagging The Industry But So Is The Business
Novavax, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2x might make it look like a strong buy right now...Seeking Alpha • Aug 13
Novavax: Staying Long Despite Coming Up Short In Q2
Summary Novavax reported Q2 earnings with a miss on EPS and revenue, causing a drop in share price, but recovered after the earnings call. Novavax is making progress with internal vaccine candidates, Sanofi partnership, and potential market opportunities, despite disappointing Q2 earnings. I provide my thoughts on the quarter, and will highlight a few downside risks that investors should consider. I discuss my updated NVAX strategy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Novavax makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 596 | -88 | 127 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 1,123 | 440 | 150 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 1,065 | 342 | 195 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 1,079 | 423 | 230 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 1,255 | 479 | 302 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 682 | -187 | 324 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 885 | -285 | 444 | 41 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 988 | -294 | 437 | 41 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 997 | -399 | 427 | 41 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 984 | -545 | 457 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 1,050 | -549 | 464 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 1,597 | -587 | 513 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 1,359 | -1,155 | 505 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 1,982 | -658 | 489 | 67 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 1,847 | -1,322 | 411 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 1,291 | -1,476 | 366 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 1,403 | -1,318 | 331 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 1,146 | -1,744 | 298 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 1,204 | -1,075 | 273 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 1,182 | -950 | 252 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 919 | -615 | 196 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 476 | -418 | 143 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 205 | -273 | 92 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 50 | -93 | 43 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 18 | -115 | 35 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 19 | -133 | 34 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 16 | -150 | 35 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 21 | -177 | 36 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 29 | -182 | 34 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 34 | -185 | 34 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 39 | -186 | 34 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 39 | -186 | 34 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 35 | -186 | 34 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 31 | -184 | 34 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 26 | -190 | 34 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 21 | -212 | 40 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 17 | -247 | 45 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 15 | -280 | 47 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 16 | -302 | 47 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 19 | -269 | 43 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 31 | -210 | 36 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 36 | -157 | 31 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 37 | -110 | 27 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 39 | -96 | 23 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: NVAX is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: NVAX is currently unprofitable.
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: NVAX is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 49.9% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare NVAX's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: NVAX is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (54.5%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: NVAX's liabilities exceed its assets, so it is difficult to calculate its Return on Equity.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/16 13:18 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/16 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Novavax, Inc. is covered by 23 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Alec Stranahan | BofA Global Research |
| David Lebowitz | Brean Capital Historical (Janney Montgomery) |
| Mayank Mamtani | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |