Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Shares Fly 26% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth

Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 79% in the last year.

Although its price has surged higher, Novavax's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.7x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the wider Biotechs industry in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 9.9x and even P/S above 63x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

Check out our latest analysis for Novavax

What Does Novavax's Recent Performance Look Like?

Novavax hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. Perhaps the P/S remains low as investors think the prospects of strong revenue growth aren't on the horizon. So while you could say the stock is cheap, investors will be looking for improvement before they see it as good value.

Keen to find out how analysts think Novavax's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Novavax's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 16%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 26% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to slump, contracting by 13% per year during the coming three years according to the six analysts following the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 113% growth per year, that's a disappointing outcome.

With this in consideration, we find it intriguing that Novavax's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

What Does Novavax's P/S Mean For Investors?

Shares in Novavax have risen appreciably however, its P/S is still subdued. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

With revenue forecasts that are inferior to the rest of the industry, it's no surprise that Novavax's P/S is on the lower end of the spectrum. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with Novavax (including 1 which is a bit concerning).

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.