Novavax, Inc.

NasdaqGS:NVAX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.4b

Novavax Valuation

Is NVAX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NVAX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NVAX ($8.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($35.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NVAX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NVAX?

Key metric: As NVAX is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for NVAX. This is calculated by dividing NVAX's market cap by their current revenue.
What is NVAX's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.5x
SalesUS$885.19m
Market CapUS$1.36b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does NVAX's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for NVAX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.4x
RCUS Arcus Biosciences
5.5x18.5%US$1.5b
TVTX Travere Therapeutics
7.3x31.7%US$1.5b
DVAX Dynavax Technologies
6.5x17.6%US$1.7b
PRTA Prothena
6.2x37.7%US$828.7m
NVAX Novavax
1.5x-10.2%US$1.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NVAX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the peer average (6.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does NVAX's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

137 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.9.9x20.8%
NVAX Novavax
 1.5x-10.2%US$1.36b
BIIB Biogen
2.3x1.3%US$21.72b
MRNA Moderna
3x5.8%US$15.50b
NVAX 1.5xIndustry Avg. 9.9xNo. of Companies137PS01632486480+
137 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.9.9x27.6%
NVAX Novavax
 1.5x67.0%US$1.36b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NVAX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (9.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NVAX's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NVAX PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.5x
Fair PS Ratio1.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NVAX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NVAX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$8.51
US$16.00
+88.0%
39.5%US$25.00US$9.00n/a6
Dec ’25US$8.72
US$16.00
+83.5%
39.5%US$25.00US$9.00n/a6
Nov ’25US$9.35
US$17.83
+90.7%
34.5%US$26.00US$9.00n/a6
Oct ’25US$12.32
US$18.17
+47.5%
41.5%US$31.00US$9.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$12.38
US$18.17
+46.7%
41.5%US$31.00US$9.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$12.57
US$19.17
+52.5%
45.0%US$31.00US$8.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$12.73
US$22.80
+79.1%
42.6%US$38.00US$10.00n/a5
Jun ’25US$15.03
US$21.60
+43.7%
48.9%US$38.00US$10.00n/a5
May ’25US$4.67
US$15.40
+229.8%
81.2%US$38.00US$4.00n/a5
Apr ’25US$4.65
US$15.40
+231.2%
81.2%US$38.00US$4.00n/a5
Mar ’25US$5.39
US$15.40
+185.7%
81.2%US$38.00US$4.00n/a5
Feb ’25US$4.02
US$19.40
+382.6%
73.3%US$38.00US$4.00n/a5
Jan ’25US$4.80
US$19.60
+308.3%
71.5%US$38.00US$5.00n/a5
Dec ’24US$5.57
US$19.60
+251.9%
71.5%US$38.00US$5.00US$8.725
Nov ’24US$7.00
US$20.60
+194.3%
65.0%US$38.00US$5.00US$9.355
Oct ’24US$7.24
US$20.60
+184.5%
65.0%US$38.00US$5.00US$12.325
Sep ’24US$8.21
US$20.60
+150.9%
65.0%US$38.00US$5.00US$12.385
Aug ’24US$8.75
US$22.00
+151.4%
60.7%US$41.00US$9.00US$12.575
Jul ’24US$7.43
US$22.83
+207.3%
54.0%US$41.00US$9.00US$12.736
Jun ’24US$7.72
US$22.83
+195.8%
54.0%US$41.00US$9.00US$15.036
May ’24US$7.72
US$39.33
+409.5%
95.6%US$110.00US$10.00US$4.676
Apr ’24US$6.93
US$46.83
+575.8%
75.7%US$110.00US$10.00US$4.656
Mar ’24US$6.86
US$46.83
+582.7%
75.7%US$110.00US$10.00US$5.396
Feb ’24US$11.23
US$55.33
+392.7%
62.3%US$110.00US$13.00US$4.026
Jan ’24US$10.28
US$61.50
+498.2%
55.2%US$110.00US$13.00US$4.806
Dec ’23US$16.85
US$78.17
+363.9%
80.5%US$207.00US$16.00US$5.576

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 09:01
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Novavax, Inc. is covered by 25 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Alec StranahanBofA Global Research
Mayank MamtaniB. Riley Securities, Inc.
George ZavoicoB. Riley Securities, Inc.