Novavax Valuation
Is NVAX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NVAX?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is NVAX's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$641.25m |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -0.2x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does NVAX's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 5.5x | ||
ALEC Alector | 4.9x | 30.4% | US$611.8m |
IMTX Immatics | 8.7x | 16.6% | US$748.3m |
FATE Fate Therapeutics | 3.6x | -7.0% | US$488.0m |
ADMA ADMA Biologics | 4.9x | 13.1% | US$898.0m |
NVAX Novavax | 0.5x | 1.0% | US$641.2m |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NVAX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (5.5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does NVAX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NVAX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (12.8x)
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is NVAX's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 0.5x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 1x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NVAX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of NVAX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: NVAX ($7.43) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($63.87)
Significantly Below Fair Value: NVAX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$7.43 | US$22.83 +207.3% | 54.0% | US$41.00 | US$9.00 | n/a | 6 |
| May ’24 | US$7.72 | US$39.33 +409.5% | 95.6% | US$110.00 | US$10.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Apr ’24 | US$6.93 | US$46.83 +575.8% | 75.7% | US$110.00 | US$10.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Mar ’24 | US$6.86 | US$46.83 +582.7% | 75.7% | US$110.00 | US$10.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Feb ’24 | US$11.23 | US$55.33 +392.7% | 62.3% | US$110.00 | US$13.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Jan ’24 | US$10.28 | US$61.50 +498.2% | 55.2% | US$110.00 | US$13.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Dec ’23 | US$16.85 | US$78.17 +363.9% | 80.5% | US$207.00 | US$16.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Nov ’23 | US$22.00 | US$81.33 +269.7% | 77.9% | US$207.00 | US$16.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Oct ’23 | US$18.20 | US$105.83 +481.5% | 61.9% | US$207.00 | US$20.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Sep ’23 | US$31.95 | US$144.00 +350.7% | 23.2% | US$207.00 | US$110.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Aug ’23 | US$53.92 | US$170.00 +215.3% | 15.8% | US$207.00 | US$132.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Jul ’23 | US$57.15 | US$172.00 +201.0% | 15.8% | US$207.00 | US$132.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Jun ’23 | US$53.64 | US$174.83 +225.9% | 14.7% | US$207.00 | US$132.00 | n/a | 6 |
| May ’23 | US$45.07 | US$186.83 +314.5% | 9.9% | US$207.00 | US$150.00 | US$7.72 | 6 |
| Apr ’23 | US$74.32 | US$196.00 +163.7% | 15.3% | US$250.00 | US$150.00 | US$6.93 | 6 |
| Mar ’23 | US$83.74 | US$210.50 +151.4% | 22.6% | US$294.00 | US$150.00 | US$6.86 | 6 |
| Feb ’23 | US$95.18 | US$250.00 +162.7% | 22.4% | US$315.00 | US$150.00 | US$11.23 | 6 |
| Jan ’23 | US$143.07 | US$268.00 +87.3% | 13.0% | US$305.00 | US$209.00 | US$10.28 | 5 |
| Dec ’22 | US$192.65 | US$260.60 +35.3% | 18.4% | US$305.00 | US$172.00 | US$16.85 | 5 |
| Nov ’22 | US$172.45 | US$264.20 +53.2% | 14.1% | US$305.00 | US$200.00 | US$22.00 | 5 |
| Oct ’22 | US$181.60 | US$264.20 +45.5% | 14.1% | US$305.00 | US$200.00 | US$18.20 | 5 |
| Sep ’22 | US$252.06 | US$264.20 +4.8% | 14.1% | US$305.00 | US$200.00 | US$31.95 | 5 |
| Aug ’22 | US$179.33 | US$249.60 +39.2% | 19.5% | US$294.00 | US$161.00 | US$53.92 | 5 |
| Jul ’22 | US$215.76 | US$249.60 +15.7% | 19.5% | US$294.00 | US$161.00 | US$57.15 | 5 |
| Jun ’22 | US$145.40 | US$238.60 +64.1% | 20.4% | US$294.00 | US$161.00 | US$53.64 | 5 |
| May ’22 | US$236.93 | US$323.00 +36.3% | 8.4% | US$365.00 | US$285.00 | US$45.07 | 5 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.