Novavax, Inc.

NasdaqGS:NVAX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.5b

Novavax Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Novavax's revenue is forecast to decline at 5.8% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 60.6% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 60.7% per annum.

Key information

60.6%

Earnings growth rate

60.72%

EPS growth rate

Biotechs earnings growth25.2%
Revenue growth rate-5.8%
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated12 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 12

Novavax: Betting On This Vaccine Maker's Turnaround Story, After Pfizer Deal

Summary Novavax receives a Hold rating, reflecting neutral fundamentals despite a Q1 earnings beat and strong recent price momentum. NVAX's upside hinges on executing strategic partnerships, notably with Pfizer, and advancing its vaccine pipeline amid sector tailwinds from infectious disease outbreaks. Profitability remains elusive, with negative equity and choppy cash flow; consensus expects no positive EPS until at least 2028. Valuation implies nearly 40% upside to Wall Street's $14.11 target, but technicals and seasonal demand volatility temper conviction in a sustained rally. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 26

NVAX: Bearish View Will Hinge On Sustained COVID Vaccination Demand

Analysts have raised their blended price targets for Novavax by about $1 per share to a range of around $7 to $8, citing updated assumptions for COVID demand, refreshed 2026 revenue and expense forecasts, and the contribution from recent partnership agreements. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Novavax reflects a mix of caution and tempered expectations, even as price targets move slightly higher into the mid single digit range.
Narrative Update • Apr 11

NVAX: Bearish View Will Hinge On Future COVID Demand Execution

Analysts have modestly lifted their average price targets on Novavax shares, with several moving from the $6 to $7 range toward $8 as they update COVID demand assumptions and incorporate new guidance on future revenue, operating expenses, and licensing income. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Novavax reflects a cautious tone, even as some targets edge higher.
Narrative Update • Mar 28

NVAX: Bearish Outlook Will Depend On Pfizer Royalty And COVID Demand Assumptions

Novavax's average analyst price target has edged higher by about $1, as analysts refine their COVID assumptions, update revenue and expense forecasts for future years, and factor recent partnership economics into their models. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Novavax points to a cautious tone, even as price targets move slightly higher.
Narrative Update • Mar 14

NVAX: Cautious Outlook Will Hinge On Future Pfizer Royalty Execution

Narrative Update on Novavax The analyst price target for Novavax has increased by about $1 to a new consensus of $7, as analysts adjust their models for updated COVID demand assumptions, refreshed 2026 revenue and expense forecasts, and the impact of recent partnership and licensing agreements. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Novavax points to a mixed but generally cautious stance.
Narrative Update • Feb 27

NVAX: Licensing And Royalty Streams Will Drive Future Cash Generation

Analysts have lifted their average price target on Novavax to about $13.78 from roughly $13.11, citing updated COVID demand assumptions, refreshed revenue and expense forecasts, and revised P/E expectations that incorporate recent guidance and licensing agreements. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a mix of cautious optimism and ongoing concern, with several firms adjusting their price targets and underlying models around Novavax's COVID franchise, expense profile, and licensing income.
Analysis Article • Jan 14

Improved Revenues Required Before Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Stock's 32% Jump Looks Justified

Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 32% in the last...
Narrative Update • Nov 08

NVAX: Shifting To Licensing Will Drive Royalties And Upfront Payments

Novavax's analyst price target has been modestly reduced from $13.21 to $13.11 per share. This change reflects analysts' cautious optimism about the company's new licensing model, expected royalties, and commercial partnership opportunities.
Narrative Update • Oct 24

Confidence In Licensing Shift And Partnerships Will Drive Opportunities Ahead

The analyst price target for Novavax has been raised from $12.50 to $13.21. This reflects analyst confidence in the company’s transition to a licensing model as well as opportunities for revenue from new partnerships and technology platforms.
Narrative Update • Sep 04

Global Vaccine Market Will Unlock Upside Despite Execution Risks

Novavax’s consensus price target was modestly reduced, primarily due to a slight decline in its future P/E ratio, bringing fair value down from $12.86 to $12.50. What's in the News Reports indicate that the Trump administration and Robert F.
Analysis Article • May 20

Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Shares Fly 29% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth

Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 29% in the last...
Seeking Alpha • Apr 28

Novavax: Grandiose Ambitions, Smart Strategy, But FDA Decision Adds To Challenges

Summary Novavax's recent performance shows improvement, but significant challenges persist, impacting long-term growth and stability. The company's financials have strengthened due to strategic moves, yet uncertainties in its COVID-19 vaccine remain. NVAX stock's rating maintained at "Hold" despite ongoing hurdles based on improved cash position and potential future opportunities. Investors should remain cautious, balancing optimism with awareness of persistent risks and market volatility. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Apr 22

Sanofi Partnership And Pipeline Programs Will Expand Future Markets

Strategic partnerships and new vaccine programs could significantly boost Novavax's future revenue and market expansion efforts.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 11

Novavax: Regulatory Uncertainty Creates Risk And Opportunity For Beaten-Down Vaccine Developer

Summary Novavax's $500M Sanofi partnership with a potential $700M in milestones provides stability as the company transitions to a partnership-focused strategy. Health Secretary Kennedy's claim that single-antigen vaccines don't work for respiratory diseases caused Novavax stock to plummet 20%. FDA approval delay for Nuvaxovid jeopardizes a crucial $175M milestone payment, though Novavax has the financial flexibility to survive this setback. Despite significant regulatory and competitive risks, NVAX stock maintains a "Hold" rating as a speculative component for barbell portfolios. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Apr 02

The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Novavax, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NVAX) Revenues Yet As Shares Tumble 28%

Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 28...
Analysis Article • Mar 12

Some Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Analysts Just Made A Major Cut To Next Year's Estimates

Today is shaping up negative for Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 16

Novavax Cashes In On Its COVID Albatross -- Challenges Remain (Rating Upgrade)

Summary I have been warning about Novavax's risks since 2016, highlighting its ongoing struggles with the FDA. Novavax's Q3 2024 earnings call and 10-Q reveal a collaboration negotiated from a position of relative weakness. The partnership with Sanofi offers significant benefits but does not assure it of ongoing success. My analysis remains cautious, emphasizing the need for careful consideration of Novavax's long-term viability and strategic moves. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Dec 17

Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Shares Fly 26% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth

Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last...
Analysis Article • Nov 15

Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$16.67 Price Target

Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) defied analyst predictions to release its third-quarter results, which were ahead of...
Seeking Alpha • Nov 13

Novavax Q3 Earnings Disappoint, But A Turnaround May Be Underway

Summary Novavax reported a net loss of $0.76/share and $84.5M in revenue, beating estimates but cutting guidance due to lower COVID-19 vaccine sales. Revenue has declined since 2022, prompting a substantial cost reduction program set to refocus the company on 4 key value drivers. A collaboration with Sanofi offers flexibility and potential growth, allowing Novavax to focus on developing a COVID-19/influenza combination (CIC) and seasonal influenza vaccines. Despite effective products, reduced guidance and restructuring uncertainty make NVAX stock a hold, with the Sanofi partnership and upcoming milestones as a potential bullish catalyst. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Nov 01

Novavax, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NVAX) 35% Dip In Price Shows Sentiment Is Matching Revenues

Novavax, Inc. ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month...
Seeking Alpha • Oct 31

Novavax Q3 Earnings A Week Away - Time To Accept A New Reality

Summary Novavax' Q3 earnings are due on 6th November. The vaccine developer was part of Operation Warp Speed, receiving $1.8bn of funding from the US government to develop a COVID vaccine. Novavax succeeded, but Nuvaxovid came to the market too late to build market share and the company ended up making heavy losses. Sanofi has acquired the rights to nuvaxovid, paying Novavax $500m upfront, and will look to develop a COVID / Influenza combo vaccine using Novavax' technology. Unfortunately, Sanofi milestones and revenues aside, that leaves Novavax with few opportunities to generate revenue, which likely means its valuation will fall over time. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 01

Novavax's Future Hinges On Sanofi Deal And Upcoming Milestones

Summary Novavax has secured a transformative partnership with Sanofi, which includes $1.2 billion in potential payments and critical commercial support. The company’s COVID-19 vaccine targets the JN.1 variant, but newer Omicron variants have outpaced it, limiting competitive advantage. Financial stability hinges on achieving key milestones in the Sanofi partnership and successful commercialization of new vaccines. Despite the Sanofi deal, maintaining a "hold" position is prudent given the high-risk nature of Novavax's future prospects. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Aug 14

Novavax, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NVAX) Shares Lagging The Industry But So Is The Business

Novavax, Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:NVAX ) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2x might make it look like a strong buy right now...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 13

Novavax: Staying Long Despite Coming Up Short In Q2

Summary Novavax reported Q2 earnings with a miss on EPS and revenue, causing a drop in share price, but recovered after the earnings call. Novavax is making progress with internal vaccine candidates, Sanofi partnership, and potential market opportunities, despite disappointing Q2 earnings. I provide my thoughts on the quarter, and will highlight a few downside risks that investors should consider. I discuss my updated NVAX strategy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 26

Novavax Ahead Of Q2 Earnings - Picking Apart The Sanofi Deal

Summary Novavax's Q1 2024 earnings were so-so, but a major partnership with Sanofi sent its share price soaring by 200%. The Sanofi deal provides essential funding but restricts Novavax's future earning potential, making it reliant on revenue streams from Sanofi. Novavax's long-term prospects may be challenging as it may struggle to develop new products and could see its revenue streams dry up post-2025. In this review ahead of Q2 earnings (to be announced on August 6) I take a deeper look at the Sanofi deal, and what to expect from Q2 earnings. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:NVAX - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202836283171186
12/31/2027258-43-20-1329
12/31/2026410-79-211-2699
3/31/2026596-88-98-92N/A
12/31/20251,123440-251-245N/A
9/30/20251,065342-385-378N/A
6/30/20251,079423-637-631N/A
3/31/20251,255479-198-189N/A
12/31/2024682-187-102-87N/A
9/30/2024885-285-112-91N/A
6/30/2024988-294-2414N/A
3/31/2024997-399-514-472N/A
12/31/2023984-545-773-714N/A
9/30/20231,050-549-727-655N/A
6/30/20231,597-587-737-654N/A
3/31/20231,359-1,155-753-653N/A
12/31/20221,982-658-509-416N/A
9/30/20221,847-1,322-728-641N/A
6/30/20221,291-1,476-814-744N/A
3/31/20221,403-1,318-489-429N/A
12/31/20211,146-1,744265323N/A
9/30/20211,204-1,075454537N/A
6/30/20211,182-950593672N/A
3/31/2021919-615575644N/A
12/31/2020476-418-97-43N/A
9/30/2020205-2734962N/A
6/30/202050-933237N/A
3/31/202018-115-110-109N/A
12/31/201919-133N/A-137N/A
9/30/201916-150N/A-158N/A
6/30/201921-177N/A-159N/A
3/31/201929-182N/A-169N/A
12/31/201834-185N/A-185N/A
9/30/201839-186N/A-183N/A
6/30/201839-186N/A-194N/A
3/31/201835-186N/A-166N/A
12/31/201731-184N/A-144N/A
9/30/201726-190N/A-162N/A
6/30/201721-212N/A-181N/A
3/31/201717-247N/A-230N/A
12/31/201615-280N/A-259N/A
9/30/201616-302N/A-249N/A
6/30/201619-269N/A-215N/A
3/31/201631-210N/A-165N/A
12/31/201536-157N/A-126N/A
9/30/201537-110N/A-91N/A
6/30/201539-96N/A-78N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NVAX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: NVAX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: NVAX is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NVAX's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-5.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NVAX's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-5.8% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if NVAX's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/18 18:42
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/15 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Novavax, Inc. is covered by 24 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Alec StranahanBofA Global Research
David LebowitzBrean Capital Historical (Janney Montgomery)
Mayank MamtaniB. Riley Securities, Inc.