Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings And Analysts Are Lifting Their Estimates

Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 87% over the past week following Novavax, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:NVAX) latest first-quarter results. Despite revenues of US$94m falling 7.5% short of expectations, statutory losses of US$1.05 per share were well contained, and in line with analyst models. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Novavax

After the latest results, the consensus from Novavax's six analysts is for revenues of US$951.7m in 2024, which would reflect a noticeable 4.5% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 84% to US$0.46. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$845.5m and US$0.72 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$19.75, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Novavax at US$38.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.0% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 40% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Novavax is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.75, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Novavax analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Novavax that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.