Moderna (MRNA) Stock Overview
A biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 1/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 3/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
No risks detected for MRNA from our risk checks.
MRNA Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
US$175
FV
73.9% undervalued intrinsic discount781
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ST
stuart_roberts
Community ContributorUS$21.53FV • 66.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
5419.8%Revenue growth p.a.
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Moderna, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$45.72 |
| 52 Week High | US$59.55 |
| 52 Week Low | US$22.28 |
| Beta | 1.34 |
| 1 Month Change | -5.20% |
| 3 Month Change | -2.43% |
| 1 Year Change | 60.20% |
| 3 Year Change | -64.87% |
| 5 Year Change | -71.92% |
| Change since IPO | 145.81% |
Recent News & Updates
MRNA: Litigation Tail And Uncertain Flu Path Will Limit Long-Term Upside
Analysts have lifted the implied fair value estimate for Moderna shares by about $7, citing a reset in litigation risk following the Arbutus and Genevant settlement and refreshed expectations for the flu and broader vaccine pipeline that flow through to higher modeled revenue growth and a richer future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Street research on Moderna has been active, with several firms revisiting their models after the Arbutus and Genevant settlement, the Q4 earnings update, and the FDA's decision to review the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine.Moderna: The Case For Staying On The Sidelines
Apr 15
MRNA: Flu Review Uncertainty And Legal Tail Risk Will Constrain Upside
Analysts have nudged Moderna's average price target higher by $5, reflecting a mix of renewed confidence in the company's vaccine pipeline after the FDA's reconsideration of its flu shot application and reduced litigation overhang following recent settlement developments. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Moderna clusters around two main themes for you to watch closely: valuation reset around the vaccine pipeline and lingering legal and execution risks tied to the COVID and flu franchises.Recent updates
MRNA: Litigation Tail And Uncertain Flu Path Will Limit Long-Term Upside
Analysts have lifted the implied fair value estimate for Moderna shares by about $7, citing a reset in litigation risk following the Arbutus and Genevant settlement and refreshed expectations for the flu and broader vaccine pipeline that flow through to higher modeled revenue growth and a richer future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Street research on Moderna has been active, with several firms revisiting their models after the Arbutus and Genevant settlement, the Q4 earnings update, and the FDA's decision to review the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine.Moderna: The Case For Staying On The Sidelines
Apr 15MRNA: Flu Review Uncertainty And Legal Tail Risk Will Constrain Upside
Analysts have nudged Moderna's average price target higher by $5, reflecting a mix of renewed confidence in the company's vaccine pipeline after the FDA's reconsideration of its flu shot application and reduced litigation overhang following recent settlement developments. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Moderna clusters around two main themes for you to watch closely: valuation reset around the vaccine pipeline and lingering legal and execution risks tied to the COVID and flu franchises.MRNA: Litigation Deal And Flu Review Path Will Limit Future Upside
Analyst price targets for Moderna have generally shifted higher, with several firms moving into a $30 to $69 range as they factor in the recent Arbutus settlement, the FDA’s renewed review of the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine with an August 5 PDUFA date, and updated product and oncology pipeline assumptions. Analyst Commentary Street research on Moderna currently reflects a mixed but generally cautious stance, even as litigation and regulatory headlines have reduced some overhangs.MRNA: Litigation Settlement And Flu Setback Will Constrain Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed Moderna's implied fair value from $15.00 to $12.00 as they factor in a higher discount rate, more moderate profit margins and updated views on revenue growth following recent litigation settlements and regulatory updates. Analyst Commentary Street research around Moderna centers on two themes that matter for you as an investor: the clean-up of legal overhangs and how much confidence to place in the broader vaccine and oncology pipeline.
MRNA: Future Upside Will Hinge On Upcoming Flu Vaccine Approval Decision
Our fair value estimate for Moderna has inched up by about $1.65 per share to $91.97 as analysts update their models around higher projected product sales, a more constructive FDA review path for the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine with an August 5 PDUFA date, and refreshed views on the broader late stage pipeline including oncology. Analyst Commentary Street research on Moderna has leaned more constructive around the updated regulatory path for flu vaccine mRNA-1010, the broader late stage pipeline, and recent quarterly disclosures.Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) Released Earnings Last Week And Analysts Lifted Their Price Target To US$40.90
Feb 17
MRNA: Future Upside Will Depend On Vaccine Pipeline Execution Outcomes
Analysts have nudged their average price target for Moderna higher by about $3, reflecting updated views on long term revenue potential, profit margins and a higher future P/E multiple following recent research on COVID demand, the broader vaccine pipeline and legal outcomes. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Moderna highlights a mix of caution and growing optimism, with several bullish analysts adjusting their models after company updates, legal developments and new financing disclosures.Moderna, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MRNA) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 43%
Feb 02MRNA: Cancer Vaccine Risk And Vaccine Backlash Will Restrain Long-Term Upside
The analyst price target for Moderna has increased by about $2 to $38.80, as analysts incorporate updated assumptions for slightly stronger revenue growth, modestly better profit margins, a marginally lower discount rate, and a slightly reduced future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Moderna shows a mix of cautious optimism and ongoing concern.MRNA: Late Stage Vaccine Outcomes Will Define Future Upside Potential
Narrative update We trim our analyst price target for Moderna from about US$121 to roughly US$87 as analysts factor in lower profit margin expectations, a higher discount rate, cautious views on COVID-related revenue visibility, and a more binary risk profile around key late stage vaccine data, even as some models reflect higher revenue growth assumptions and updated financing terms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Moderna points to a mixed backdrop, with several firms reaffirming cautious stances while still recognizing specific areas where execution and funding choices could support long term value creation.MRNA: Oncology Progress Will Drive Long-Term Upside Despite Debt And Litigation
Analysts have modestly lifted their price targets on Moderna, with recent revisions such as $15 to $18, $16 to $17, and $32 to $30. These changes collectively reflect slightly improved conviction in the company’s long term revenue growth, gross margin expansion, and strengthened liquidity following new Ares financing, despite ongoing profitability and litigation risks.MRNA: Oncology Advances And Buyout Optionality Will Offset Debt And Litigation Risks
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Moderna to align with a slightly higher fair value estimate of about $36.75, citing incremental improvements in long term revenue growth and profitability assumptions supported by recent Investor and Analyst Day updates, revised 2026 to 2028 guidance, and Ares financing. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a cautious but incrementally more constructive stance toward Moderna, with several firms refining their models following Investor and Analyst Day presentations and the announcement of new financing.There's No Escaping Moderna, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MRNA) Muted Revenues Despite A 28% Share Price Rise
Dec 19MRNA: Oncology Pipeline Progress Will Drive Long Term Upside Despite Litigation Risk
Analysts have modestly lowered their price target on Moderna to about $35.78 from $37.32 per share, reflecting slightly softer long term growth and valuation assumptions. This comes even as recent Investor and Analyst Day updates, new debt financing and evolving oncology data support a more stable cash outlook and gradual margin improvement.MRNA: Oncology Pipeline Advances Will Drive Renewed Optimism Despite Regulatory Shifts
Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Moderna down from approximately $40.30 to $37.32. They cited the company’s updated revenue growth projections and cost outlook, despite improvements in profit margins and continued progress across its commercial and research pipelines.MRNA: Oncology Progress Will Drive Renewed Optimism Amid Regulatory Uncertainties
Moderna's analyst price target was reduced from $18 to $15, as analysts pointed to lower US vaccination trends and ongoing regulatory uncertainties that are impacting the outlook for its vaccine franchises. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst notes have reflected both cautious and optimistic perspectives on Moderna's outlook.Oncology Advancements And Evolving Policy Will Shape Recovery Amid Regulatory Shifts
Moderna’s analyst price target has been revised downward from $44.25 to $40.30. Analysts cite lower projected revenue growth along with persistent regulatory and profitability challenges, which have been reflected in recent industry commentary.Pipeline Diversification And Regulatory Momentum Will Unlock Future Potential
Moderna’s consensus price target was held at $44.25 as analysts cited declining US vaccine demand, increased regulatory hurdles for flu/COVID combinations, delayed UK deliveries impacting 2025 guidance, and persistent uncertainty around mRNA vaccine approvals. Analyst Commentary Lowered US vaccination trends for both COVID and flu are reducing addressable market expectations for Moderna’s vaccines.Moderna, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MRNA) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 26%
Jul 18
MODERNA (MRNA): WALLSTREET THREW IT OUT - I’LL PICK IT UP AND CASH THE CHECK
Despite the defunding of US governmental research and health services, Moderna remains in a commanding fundamental position. The company that made its name during the COVID-19 pandemic developing andMore Downside For Moderna Before The Breakthrough
Apr 22FDA Shake-Up Rocks Moderna Stock As Regulatory Risks Mount (Downgrade)
Mar 31Moderna: Patent Litigation Win Masks Underperformance, Unlikely To Pay Out
Mar 06Moderna, Inc.: Working Hard But Competition Is Working Harder
Feb 14
Vaccine Expansion Plans Could Shape Future Despite Market Challenges And Legal Risks
Strategic product innovation in combining vaccines could enhance long-term revenue streams and international market positioning.Moderna: The Good News Isn't Enough
Feb 03Moderna: Can They Benefit From Bird Flu? (Rating Upgrade)
Jan 10Moderna: 2025 Contrarian Play
Dec 31Moderna: Cutting Costs Might Not Be Enough
Dec 18Moderna's Fresh Blow As RFK Heads To HHS - A Tough 2025 May Be In Store
Nov 22Moderna: Assessing The Impact Of GSK's Patent Lawsuit
Oct 22Moderna: Still Bullish View
Sep 20Moderna: Fresh Sell-Off On Cost Cutting Initiatives, Short-Term Outlook Troubling
Sep 12Moderna's Vaccine Progress Undermined By RSV Market Contraction (Rating Downgrade)
Aug 26Shareholder Returns
| MRNA | US Biotechs | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -17.8% | -4.3% | -0.2% |
| 1Y | 60.2% | 27.9% | 27.6% |
Return vs Industry: MRNA exceeded the US Biotechs industry which returned 27.9% over the past year.
Return vs Market: MRNA exceeded the US Market which returned 27.6% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| MRNA volatility | |
|---|---|
| MRNA Average Weekly Movement | 8.6% |
| Biotechs Industry Average Movement | 10.8% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.2% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.2% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.3% |
Stable Share Price: MRNA has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: MRNA's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 4,700 | Stéphane Bancel | www.modernatx.com |
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, provides messenger RNA medicines in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company’s respiratory vaccines include spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA, COVID, RSV, seasonal influenza, combination, and pandemic influenza vaccine; latent vaccines comprise cytomegalovirus, epstein-barr virus, and human immunodeficiency virus vaccines; enteric viruses include norovirus; public health vaccines consist of Zika, Nipah, and Mpox vaccines; and bacterial diseases vaccines, such as lyme vaccines. It also provides oncology therapeutics, such as intismeran autogene, cancer antigen therapy, t-cell engager, and cell therapy enhancer; and rare disease products, including propionic and methylmalonic acidemia, and cystic fibrosis.
Moderna, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| MRNA fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$18.70b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$2.82b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$1.94b |
9.3x
P/S Ratio-6.4x
P/E RatioIs MRNA overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| MRNA income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$1.94b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$4.00b |
| Gross Profit | -US$2.06b |
| Other Expenses | US$766.00m |
| Earnings | -US$2.82b |
Last Reported Earnings
Dec 31, 2025
Next Earnings Date
May 01, 2026
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -7.12 |
| Gross Margin | -105.76% |
| Net Profit Margin | -145.16% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 6.8% |
How did MRNA perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/04/29 13:22 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/04/29 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Moderna, Inc. is covered by 44 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| null null | Argus Research Company |
| Huidong Wang | Barclays |
| Eliana Merle | Barclays |