Exact Sciences (NasdaqGS:EXAS) - Share price, News & Analysis

EXAS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

EXAS Stock Overview

Exact Sciences Corporation provides cancer screening and diagnostic test products in the United States and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 61.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 14.19% per year

Risk Analysis

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Exact Sciences Competitors

Natera

NasdaqGS:NTRA

US$3.6b

Twist Bioscience

NasdaqGS:TWST

US$2.0b

Myriad Genetics

NasdaqGS:MYGN

US$1.7b

CareDx

NasdaqGM:CDNA

US$1.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Exact Sciences
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$48.43
52 Week High	US$133.99
52 Week Low	US$46.15
Beta	1.23
1 Month Change	-22.69%
3 Month Change	-35.91%
1 Year Change	-55.58%
3 Year Change	-50.44%
5 Year Change	32.79%
Change since IPO	228.34%

Recent News & Updates

May 25

Exact Sciences Won't Likely Escape Consolidation In The Industry

The current tight macro environment is conducive to consolidation in Biotech. Exact Sciences needs to turn cash flow positive to avoid liquidity problems. M&A might be a solution to scale and reduce cash burn, but it doesn't come without problems.

May 14

Exact Sciences: Sell-Off Provides An Opportunity To Buy At A Reasonable Valuation

Exact Sciences continues to record strong growth and is expected to report growth for the foreseeable future. Regardless of the steady revenue growth, the EXAS stock is under a lot of selling pressure as the overall market continues its downward trajectory. I believe the relentless selling will provide a great opportunity to grab EXAS at a reasonable valuation for its growth prospects. Guardant Health's colorectal cancer test might have an impact on Cologuard’s growth in the coming quarters. Therefore, I am not looking to make EXAS a major component of the Compounding Healthcare "Bio Boom" Portfolio at this time. I take a look at the company's current valuation to help form my plan of attack for EXAS as the market continues to experience elevated selling pressure.

Shareholder Returns

	EXAS	US Biotechs	US Market
7D	-6.9%	-3.2%	-4.0%
1Y	-55.6%	-22.1%	-13.2%

Return vs Industry: EXAS underperformed the US Biotechs industry which returned -21.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: EXAS underperformed the US Market which returned -12.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is EXAS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
EXAS volatility
EXAS Average Weekly Movement	10.0%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement	12.4%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: EXAS is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: EXAS's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1995	6,460	Kevin Conroy	https://www.exactsciences.com

Exact Sciences Corporation provides cancer screening and diagnostic test products in the United States and internationally. The company offers Cologuard, a non-invasive stool-based DNA screening test to detect DNA and hemoglobin biomarkers associated with colorectal cancer and pre-cancer. It also provides Oncotype DX, a gene expression tests for breast, prostate, and colon cancers; Oncotype Test, a tissue test delivering tumor profiling to aid therapy selection for patients with advanced, metastatic, refractory, or recurrent cancer; Oncotype DX AR-V7 Nucleus Detect Test, a liquid-based test for advanced stage prostate cancer; Oncomap ExTra, that provides a complete biological picture of certain refractory, rare, or aggressive cancers; and Covid-19 testing services.

Exact Sciences Fundamentals Summary

How do Exact Sciences's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
EXAS fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$8.43b
Earnings (TTM)	-US$745.40m
Revenue (TTM)	US$1.85b

4.6x

P/S Ratio

-11.4x

P/E Ratio

Is EXAS overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
EXAS income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$1.85b
Cost of Revenue	US$483.47m
Gross Profit	US$1.37b
Other Expenses	US$2.11b
Earnings	-US$745.40m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-4.24
Gross Margin	73.89%
Net Profit Margin	-40.26%
Debt/Equity Ratio	67.0%

How did EXAS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Exact Sciences undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: EXAS ($47.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($125.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EXAS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: EXAS is unprofitable, so we can't compare its Price-To-Earnings Ratio to the US Biotechs industry average.

PE vs Market: EXAS is unprofitable, so we can't compare its Price-To-Earnings Ratio to the US market.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate EXAS's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: EXAS is overvalued based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (2.6x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (1.5x).

Future Growth

How is Exact Sciences forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 17 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

36.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: EXAS is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: EXAS is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: EXAS is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: EXAS's revenue (14.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: EXAS's revenue (14.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: EXAS is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

Past Performance

How has Exact Sciences performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-42.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: EXAS is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: EXAS is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: EXAS is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 42.9% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare EXAS's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: EXAS is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (96.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: EXAS has a negative Return on Equity (-22.88%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Financial Health

How is Exact Sciences's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: EXAS's short term assets ($1.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($481.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: EXAS's short term assets ($1.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($2.8B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: EXAS's net debt to equity ratio (41.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: EXAS's debt to equity ratio has increased from 2% to 67% over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: EXAS has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: EXAS has sufficient cash runway for 1.6 years if free cash flow continues to grow at historical rates of 1.3% each year.

Dividend

What is Exact Sciences's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate EXAS's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate EXAS's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EXAS's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EXAS's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as EXAS has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.4yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Kevin Conroy (55 yo)

13.08yrs

Tenure

US$14,632,240

Compensation

Mr. Kevin T. Conroy served as Independent Director of SomaLogic, Inc. since September 1, 2021, until January 2022. Mr. Conroy serves as Director of Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation since April 2019. Mr...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Kevin's total compensation ($USD14.63M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD8.23M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Kevin's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: EXAS's management team is considered experienced (3.4 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: EXAS's board of directors are considered experienced (3.2 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 2.6%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/25 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/25 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31