We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Moderna Valuation

Is MRNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

[object Object] Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MRNA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MRNA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4x
PEG Ratio-0.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MRNA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MRNA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.9x
BNTX BioNTech
3.8x-40.8%US$41.3b
VIR Vir Biotechnology
3.2x-46.5%US$3.7b
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
15.2x0.7%US$81.9b
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals
25.2x10.0%US$82.5b
MRNA Moderna
6x-40.9%US$70.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MRNA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the peer average (11.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MRNA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.2%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MRNA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (15.1x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MRNA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MRNA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6x
Fair PE Ratio11x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MRNA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MRNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MRNA ($182.35) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($31.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MRNA is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MRNA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$182.35
US$211.25
+15.8%
43.4%US$506.00US$101.00n/a16
Nov ’23US$154.62
US$208.00
+34.5%
45.1%US$506.00US$101.00n/a16
Oct ’23US$118.25
US$218.07
+84.4%
42.8%US$506.00US$74.00n/a15
Sep ’23US$138.95
US$214.00
+54.0%
43.0%US$506.00US$74.00n/a16
Aug ’23US$161.51
US$213.75
+32.3%
43.0%US$506.00US$77.00n/a16
Jul ’23US$149.95
US$212.06
+41.4%
44.0%US$506.00US$70.00n/a16
Jun ’23US$143.40
US$212.69
+48.3%
43.5%US$506.00US$80.00n/a16
May ’23US$134.41
US$232.12
+72.7%
42.2%US$506.00US$80.00n/a17
Apr ’23US$176.59
US$231.41
+31.0%
42.4%US$506.00US$80.00n/a17
Mar ’23US$149.52
US$231.41
+54.8%
41.9%US$506.00US$81.00n/a17
Feb ’23US$172.74
US$257.24
+48.9%
44.9%US$506.00US$85.00n/a17
Jan ’23US$253.98
US$269.56
+6.1%
43.1%US$475.00US$86.00n/a16
Dec ’22US$310.61
US$272.53
-12.3%
44.2%US$475.00US$86.00US$181.4815
Nov ’22US$337.17
US$296.29
-12.1%
48.5%US$475.00US$85.00US$154.6214
Oct ’22US$341.09
US$307.77
-9.8%
50.3%US$485.00US$85.00US$118.2513
Sep ’22US$389.94
US$270.64
-30.6%
53.5%US$463.00US$85.00US$138.9514
Aug ’22US$353.60
US$187.73
-46.9%
39.2%US$352.00US$83.00US$161.5115
Jul ’22US$235.11
US$168.87
-28.2%
29.1%US$246.00US$83.00US$149.9515
Jun ’22US$184.66
US$166.60
-9.8%
27.9%US$231.00US$83.00US$143.4015
May ’22US$178.82
US$163.93
-8.3%
27.9%US$234.00US$79.00US$134.4115
Apr ’22US$132.55
US$166.21
+25.4%
26.1%US$208.00US$80.00US$176.5914
Mar ’22US$157.40
US$167.50
+6.4%
25.5%US$208.00US$80.00US$149.5214
Feb ’22US$157.48
US$141.60
-10.1%
28.3%US$206.00US$80.00US$172.7415
Jan ’22US$104.47
US$134.50
+28.7%
29.8%US$185.00US$69.00US$253.9816
Dec ’21US$141.01
US$114.35
-18.9%
31.0%US$185.00US$60.00US$310.6117

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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