Moderna, Inc.

NasdaqGS:MRNA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$15.2b

Moderna Valuation

Is MRNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MRNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate MRNA's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate MRNA's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MRNA?

Key metric: As MRNA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MRNA. This is calculated by dividing MRNA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MRNA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3x
SalesUS$5.08b
Market CapUS$15.16b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MRNA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MRNA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5x
BNTX BioNTech
8.5x2.8%US$27.1b
BIIB Biogen
2.2x1.3%US$21.3b
INCY Incyte
3.3x8.9%US$13.3b
UTHR United Therapeutics
5.8x8.2%US$16.1b
MRNA Moderna
3x5.8%US$15.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MRNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3x) compared to the peer average (5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MRNA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

134 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.9.9x20.8%
MRNA Moderna
 3x5.8%US$15.16b
BIIB Biogen
2.2x1.3%US$21.34b
INCY Incyte
3.3x8.9%US$13.26b
MRNA 3.0xIndustry Avg. 9.9xNo. of Companies134PS01632486480+
134 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.9.9x27.6%
MRNA Moderna
 3x16.0%US$15.16b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MRNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (9.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MRNA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MRNA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3x
Fair PS Ratio3.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MRNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MRNA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$39.39
US$74.19
+88.3%
54.7%US$212.00US$31.00n/a22
Dec ’25US$43.06
US$76.41
+77.5%
52.4%US$212.00US$31.00n/a22
Nov ’25US$54.63
US$91.75
+67.9%
47.4%US$238.00US$46.00n/a20
Oct ’25US$63.93
US$100.84
+57.7%
42.8%US$238.00US$46.00n/a19
Sep ’25US$77.40
US$125.71
+62.4%
46.0%US$310.00US$58.00n/a21
Aug ’25US$94.17
US$139.31
+47.9%
41.4%US$310.00US$56.00n/a22
Jul ’25US$115.95
US$145.85
+25.8%
39.2%US$310.00US$62.00n/a22
Jun ’25US$142.55
US$141.49
-0.7%
40.3%US$310.00US$62.00n/a22
May ’25US$111.46
US$134.30
+20.5%
43.7%US$310.00US$59.00n/a22
Apr ’25US$105.60
US$134.11
+27.0%
42.8%US$310.00US$59.00n/a23
Mar ’25US$95.06
US$133.35
+40.3%
42.4%US$310.00US$60.00n/a24
Feb ’25US$99.02
US$133.85
+35.2%
45.8%US$310.00US$60.00n/a22
Jan ’25US$99.45
US$136.04
+36.8%
46.7%US$300.00US$52.00n/a22
Dec ’24US$79.83
US$139.76
+75.1%
44.9%US$300.00US$52.00US$43.0622
Nov ’24US$76.20
US$171.56
+125.1%
45.0%US$430.00US$64.00US$54.6321
Oct ’24US$103.29
US$182.39
+76.6%
42.5%US$430.00US$66.00US$63.9320
Sep ’24US$112.56
US$182.49
+62.1%
42.4%US$430.00US$68.00US$77.4020
Aug ’24US$113.94
US$199.86
+75.4%
38.9%US$430.00US$82.00US$94.1719
Jul ’24US$121.50
US$213.78
+76.0%
34.7%US$430.00US$82.00US$115.9517
Jun ’24US$128.52
US$211.96
+64.9%
34.4%US$430.00US$93.00US$142.5518
May ’24US$133.40
US$218.88
+64.1%
33.1%US$430.00US$93.00US$111.4617
Apr ’24US$153.58
US$221.94
+44.5%
39.0%US$506.00US$93.00US$105.6017
Mar ’24US$135.66
US$220.76
+62.7%
39.5%US$506.00US$93.00US$95.0617
Feb ’24US$174.30
US$229.19
+31.5%
38.7%US$506.00US$111.00US$99.0216
Jan ’24US$179.62
US$222.94
+24.1%
41.2%US$506.00US$102.00US$99.4516
Dec ’23US$181.48
US$211.25
+16.4%
43.4%US$506.00US$101.00US$79.8316

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:13
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Moderna, Inc. is covered by 42 analysts. 24 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Huidong WangBarclays