Some Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) Analysts Just Made A Major Cut To Next Year's Estimates

Today is shaping up negative for Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from seven analysts covering Novavax is for revenues of US$504m in 2025, implying a painful 26% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 79% to US$0.24 per share. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$567m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.25 in 2025. So we can see that the consensus has become notably more bearish on Novavax's outlook with these numbers, making a measurable cut to this year's revenue estimates. Furthermore, they expect the business to be loss-making this year, compared to their previous forecasts of a profit.

Check out our latest analysis for Novavax

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Novavax's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 26% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 19% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 20% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Novavax is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts are expecting Novavax to become unprofitable this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the serious cut to this year's outlook, it's clear that analysts have turned more bearish on Novavax, and we wouldn't blame shareholders for feeling a little more cautious themselves.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Novavax going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.