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CareDx

Nasdaq:CDNA
Snowflake Description

Flawless balance sheet with exceptional growth potential.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
CDNA
Nasdaq
$1B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. US
  3. Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
Company description

CareDx, Inc., a transplant diagnostics company, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of diagnostic solutions for transplant patients worldwide. The last earnings update was 48 days ago. More info.


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CDNA Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
-11.3%
NasdaqGM:CDNA
5%
US Biotechs
2%
US Market
1 Year Returns
185.3%
NasdaqGM:CDNA
-3.6%
US Biotechs
4.3%
US Market
CDNA Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
CareDx (CDNA) -11.3% 8.2% 1.9% 185.3% 634.5% -
US Biotechs 5% 4.5% 1.1% -3.6% 23.6% 11.7%
US Market 2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 43.9% 40.8%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • CDNA outperformed the Biotechs industry which returned -3.6% over the past year.
  • CDNA outperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 4.3% over the past year.
Price Volatility
CDNA
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

CDNA Value

 Is CareDx undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of CareDx to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for CareDx.

NasdaqGM:CDNA Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 5 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 10%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year US Government Bond Rate 2.7%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NasdaqGM:CDNA
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate 2.7%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Biotechs Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.32
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 1.325 (1 + (1- 21%) (0.32%))
1.22
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.22
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (1.22 * 5.96%)
10%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NasdaqGM:CDNA using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for CareDx is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

NasdaqGM:CDNA DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 10%)
2019 1.30 Analyst x1 1.18
2020 26.40 Analyst x1 21.82
2021 81.90 Analyst x1 61.53
2022 121.80 Analyst x1 83.19
2023 156.22 Est @ 28.26% 97.00
2024 188.40 Est @ 20.6% 106.35
2025 217.12 Est @ 15.24% 111.41
2026 242.05 Est @ 11.49% 112.92
2027 263.50 Est @ 8.86% 111.75
2028 282.00 Est @ 7.02% 108.72
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $815.87
NasdaqGM:CDNA DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2028 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $282.00 × (1 + 2.73%) ÷ (10% – 2.73%)
$3,984.70
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $3,984.70 ÷ (1 + 10%)10
$1,536.24
NasdaqGM:CDNA Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $815.87 + $1,536.24
$2,352.10
Equity Value per Share
(USD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $2,352.10 / 42.12
$55.84
NasdaqGM:CDNA Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (USD) From above. $55.84
Current discount Discount to share price of $34.23
= -1 x ($34.23 - $55.84) / $55.84
38.7%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price CareDx is available for.
Intrinsic value
39%
Share price is $34.23 vs Future cash flow value of $55.84
Current Discount Checks
For CareDx to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • CareDx's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • CareDx's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for CareDx's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are CareDx's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:CDNA PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $-1.17
NasdaqGM:CDNA Share Price ** NasdaqGM (2019-06-24) in USD $34.23
United States of America Biotechs Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 35 Publicly-Listed Biotechs Companies 19.23x
United States of America Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 3,095 Publicly-Listed Companies 17.88x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of CareDx.

NasdaqGM:CDNA PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= NasdaqGM:CDNA Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 34.23 ÷ -1.17

-29.18x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • CareDx is loss making, we can't compare its value to the US Biotechs industry average.
  • CareDx is loss making, we can't compare the value of its earnings to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does CareDx's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:CDNA PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section -29.18x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 5 Analysts
85.2%per year
United States of America Biotechs Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 26 Publicly-Listed Biotechs Companies 1.04x
United States of America Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 2,134 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.54x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to calculate PEG ratio for CareDx, we can't assess if its growth is good value.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on CareDx's assets?
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:CDNA PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $2.28
NasdaqGM:CDNA Share Price * NasdaqGM (2019-06-24) in USD $34.23
United States of America Biotechs Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 431 Publicly-Listed Biotechs Companies 3.01x
United States of America Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 5,255 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.8x
NasdaqGM:CDNA PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= NasdaqGM:CDNA Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 34.23 ÷ 2.28

15x

* Primary Listing of CareDx.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • CareDx is overvalued based on assets compared to the US Biotechs industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess CareDx's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Biotechs industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Biotechs industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. CareDx has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

CDNA Future Performance

 How is CareDx expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
85.2%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is CareDx expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • CareDx's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • CareDx's earnings growth is expected to exceed the United States of America market average.
  • CareDx's revenue growth is expected to exceed the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:CDNA Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
NasdaqGM:CDNA Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 5 Analysts 85.2%
NasdaqGM:CDNA Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 5 Analysts 40.7%
United States of America Biotechs Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 22.9%
United States of America Biotechs Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 18.1%
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 14%
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.4%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:CDNA Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (2 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 5 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
NasdaqGM:CDNA Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2022-12-31 390 125 144 2
2021-12-31 262 85 66 2
2020-12-31 164 29 4 5
2019-12-31 115 4 -23 5
NasdaqGM:CDNA Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-03-31 88 -5 -45
2018-12-31 77 -4 -47
2018-09-30 66 -8 -75
2018-06-30 57 -11 -69
2018-03-31 51 -12 -59
2017-12-31 48 -14 -55
2017-09-30 47 -15 -39
2017-06-30 47 -14 -29
2017-03-31 46 -17 -35
2016-12-31 41 -17 -39
2016-09-30 36 -17 -29
2016-06-30 31 -19 -28

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • CareDx's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
  • CareDx's revenue is expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:CDNA Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (2 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 5 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from CareDx Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NasdaqGM:CDNA Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2022-12-31 3.36 3.36 3.36 1.00
2021-12-31 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.00
2020-12-31 0.09 0.30 -0.09 4.00
2019-12-31 -0.54 -0.46 -0.60 4.00
NasdaqGM:CDNA Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2019-03-31 -1.17
2018-12-31 -1.31
2018-09-30 -2.29
2018-06-30 -2.38
2018-03-31 -2.32
2017-12-31 -2.38
2017-09-30 -1.81
2017-06-30 -1.38
2017-03-31 -1.87
2016-12-31 -2.39
2016-09-30 -2.03
2016-06-30 -2.31

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • CareDx is expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity greater than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess CareDx's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
CareDx has a total score of 6/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

CDNA Past Performance

  How has CareDx performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare CareDx's growth in the last year to its industry (Biotechs).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • CareDx does not make a profit and their year on year earnings growth rate was negative over the past 5 years.
  • Unable to compare CareDx's 1-year earnings growth to the 5-year average as it is not currently profitable.
  • Unable to compare CareDx's 1-year growth to the US Biotechs industry average as it is not currently profitable.
Earnings and Revenue History
CareDx's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from CareDx Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NasdaqGM:CDNA Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-03-31 88.50 -45.32 50.27
2018-12-31 76.57 -46.76 43.63
2018-09-30 65.56 -74.67 39.30
2018-06-30 56.57 -68.97 35.44
2018-03-31 50.79 -58.88 31.39
2017-12-31 48.32 -55.47 31.72
2017-09-30 46.68 -39.28 31.52
2017-06-30 46.96 -28.78 32.85
2017-03-31 45.65 -35.28 34.20
2016-12-31 40.63 -39.47 31.89
2016-09-30 36.42 -28.75 29.08
2016-06-30 31.10 -28.47 25.88
2016-03-31 27.49 -21.19 21.98
2015-12-31 28.14 -13.71 20.60
2015-09-30 29.45 -8.95 18.99
2015-06-30 28.95 -4.25 17.30
2015-03-31 28.60 -0.19 16.37
2014-12-31 27.31 0.78 14.91
2014-09-30 25.21 0.22 13.28
2014-06-30 24.36 -1.82 12.52
2014-03-31 23.04 -3.50 11.34
2013-12-31 22.10 -3.54 10.70
2012-12-31 20.45 -5.06 10.11

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • It is difficult to establish if CareDx has efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity greater than 20%) as it is loss-making.
  • It is difficult to establish if CareDx has efficiently used its assets last year compared to the US Biotechs industry average (Return on Assets) as it is loss-making.
  • It is difficult to establish if CareDx improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed) as it is currently loss-making.
X
Past performance checks
We assess CareDx's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Biotechs industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
CareDx has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

CDNA Health

 How is CareDx's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up CareDx's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • CareDx is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • CareDx's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of CareDx's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • Low level of unsold assets.
  • Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 178.8x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from CareDx Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago.

NasdaqGM:CDNA Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-03-31 95.62 0.00 57.43
2018-12-31 95.93 0.00 64.62
2018-09-30 44.39 13.38 26.20
2018-06-30 28.95 13.34 16.25
2018-03-31 33.39 10.19 18.70
2017-12-31 -5.95 34.06 16.90
2017-09-30 -0.18 36.17 5.98
2017-06-30 11.99 33.89 9.10
2017-03-31 14.86 32.39 12.19
2016-12-31 19.76 23.94 17.26
2016-09-30 36.78 26.40 22.27
2016-06-30 32.51 28.21 17.14
2016-03-31 20.46 15.79 23.75
2015-12-31 29.49 15.75 29.89
2015-09-30 33.90 15.72 33.95
2015-06-30 36.77 15.77 36.89
2015-03-31 39.47 15.67 38.99
2014-12-31 41.30 11.41 36.43
2014-09-30 41.04 12.73 39.05
2014-06-30 -0.66 18.77 7.87
2014-03-31 -15.67 15.08 4.84
2013-12-31 -14.95 15.38 5.13
2012-12-31 -12.00 14.87 5.86
  • CareDx's level of debt (0.5%) compared to net worth is satisfactory (less than 40%).
  • CareDx had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, it is now positive therefore their debt level has improved.
CASH RUNWAY ANALYSIS

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

  • CareDx has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flow.
  • CareDx has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of -12.5% each year.
X
Financial health checks
We assess CareDx's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. CareDx has a total score of 6/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

CDNA Dividends

 What is CareDx's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
0%
Current annual income from CareDx dividends.
If you bought $2,000 of CareDx shares you are expected to receive $0 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Unable to evaluate CareDx's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers as the company has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to evaluate CareDx's dividend against the top 25% market benchmark as the company has not reported any payouts.
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
NasdaqGM:CDNA Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 5 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
Global Biotechs Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 19 Stocks 2.3%
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 2012 Stocks 2.4%
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.4%
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.7%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

NasdaqGM:CDNA Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2022-12-31
2021-12-31
2020-12-31
2019-12-31

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to perform a dividend volatility check as CareDx has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to verify if CareDx's dividend has been increasing as the company has not reported any payouts.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of CareDx's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as CareDx has not reported any payouts.
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Insufficient estimate data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years and that it will be sustainable.
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess CareDx's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can CareDx afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. CareDx has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

CDNA Management

 What is the CEO of CareDx's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Peter Maag
COMPENSATION $5,231,391
AGE 51
TENURE AS CEO 6.7 years
CEO Bio

Dr. Peter Maag, PhD has been the Chief Executive Officer of CareDx, Inc. since October 2012 and was its President since October 2012 until November 26, 2018. Dr. Maag accelerated growth in XDx's blood screening business. Dr. Maag held numerous positions with increasing responsibility at Novartis International AG, a global healthcare company from September 2001 to April 2012. He served as the Global Head of Diagnostics - Novartis Vaccines and Diagnos for Novartis AG from 2009 to 2012. He served as Country President for Novartis Pharma AG in Germany from 2006 to 2008. He served as the Head of Novartis Germany Subsidiary of Novartis Ag since July 1, 2006. He served as Head of Strategy for the pharmaceutical division of Novartis A.G. from 2001 to 2002. He worked at McKinsey & Company in New Jersey and Germany, focusing on pharmaceuticals and globalization strategies from 1995 to 2001. He developed the group's infectious diseases business field in 2003 and took over responsibility for Novartis' operations in South Korea in 2004. He serves as a Director of MolecularMD Corp. He has been a Director of CareDx, Inc since November 2012. He serves as a Member of Advisory Board at PHOENIX Pharmahandel GmbH & Co KG. He studied pharmaceutical sciences in Heidelberg and London and received his Ph.D. degree from the University of Berlin, Germany.

CEO Compensation
  • Peter's compensation has increased whilst company is loss making.
  • Peter's remuneration is about average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the CareDx management team in years:

2.2
Average Tenure
51
Average Age
  • The tenure for the CareDx management team is about average.
Management Team

Peter Maag

TITLE
CEO & Director
COMPENSATION
$5M
AGE
51
TENURE
6.7 yrs

Reg Seeto

TITLE
President & Chief Business Officer
COMPENSATION
$4M
AGE
46
TENURE
0.6 yrs

Michael Bell

TITLE
Chief Financial Officer
COMPENSATION
$2M
AGE
49
TENURE
2.2 yrs

James Yee

TITLE
Chief Medical Officer
COMPENSATION
$697K
AGE
69
TENURE
12.8 yrs

Anders Karlsson

TITLE
Chief International Business Officer
AGE
54
TENURE
3.2 yrs

Sasha King

TITLE
Chief Commercial Officer
AGE
32
TENURE
2 yrs

Charles Constanti

TITLE
Executive Officer
AGE
54
TENURE
2.2 yrs
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the CareDx board of directors in years:

7.1
Average Tenure
62
Average Age
  • The tenure for the CareDx board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

Michael Goldberg

TITLE
Chairman of the Board
COMPENSATION
$329K
AGE
60
TENURE
7.6 yrs

Peter Maag

TITLE
CEO & Director
COMPENSATION
$5M
AGE
51
TENURE
6.6 yrs

Fred Cohen

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$243K
AGE
62
TENURE
16.4 yrs

Ralph Snyderman

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$255K
AGE
78
TENURE
14.1 yrs

George Bickerstaff

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$257K
AGE
62
TENURE
5.2 yrs

Jeff Bluestone

TITLE
Member of Advisory Board
AGE
65

Mary Crow

TITLE
Member of Advisory Board

Rob Tibshirani

TITLE
Member of Advisory Board

Bill Hagstrom

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$245K
AGE
61
TENURE
4.3 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • CareDx individual insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price ($) Value ($)
05. Jun 19 Sell William Hagstrom Individual 04. Jun 19 04. Jun 19 -15,000 $32.35 $-485,250
15. Mar 19 Sell Michael Goldberg Individual 14. Mar 19 14. Mar 19 -50,000 $37.36 $-1,867,825
12. Mar 19 Sell Peter Maag Individual 11. Mar 19 11. Mar 19 -50,000 $34.23 $-1,711,280
01. Dec 18 Sell Peter Maag Individual 28. Nov 18 29. Nov 18 -100,000 $28.59 $-2,852,512
02. Nov 18 Sell Gagnon Advisors, LLC Company 31. Oct 18 31. Oct 18 -98,150 $27.05 $-2,654,712
02. Nov 18 Sell Gagnon Securities LLC Company 31. Oct 18 31. Oct 18 -10,449 $27.05 $-282,619
01. Aug 18 Sell Sasha King Individual 01. Aug 18 01. Aug 18 -3,000 $14.03 $-42,102
12. Jul 18 Sell Mitchell Nelles Individual 02. Jul 18 02. Jul 18 -7,750 $12.48 $-96,738
X
Management checks
We assess CareDx's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. CareDx has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

CDNA News

Simply Wall St News

Is CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) Trading At A 37% Discount?

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. … Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Levered FCF ($, Millions) $1.30 $26.40 $81.90 $121.80 $156.22 $188.40 $217.12 $242.05 $263.50 $282.00 Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 28.26% Est @ 20.6% Est @ 15.24% Est @ 11.49% Est @ 8.86% Est @ 7.02% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 10.24% $1.18 $21.72 $61.13 $82.46 $95.94 $104.96 $109.71 $110.95 $109.56 $106.36 Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $803.98m "Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. … Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$282m × (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (10.2% – 2.7%) = US$3.9b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = $US$3.9b ÷ ( 1 + 10.2%)10 = $1.45b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is $2.26b.

Simply Wall St -

Should You Be Concerned About CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) Historical Volatility?

Beta can be a useful tool to understand how much a stock is influenced by market risk (volatility). … Small companies often have a high beta value because the stock price can move on relatively low capital flows. … So it's interesting to note that this stock historically has a beta value quite close to one.

Simply Wall St -

What Did CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) CEO Take Home Last Year?

This report will, first, examine the CEO compensation levels in comparison to CEO compensation at companies of similar size. … Then we'll look at a snap shot of the business growth. … How Does Peter Maag's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies?

Simply Wall St -

CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) Is Expected To Breakeven

CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA):. … CareDx, Inc., a transplant diagnostics company, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of diagnostic solutions for transplant patients worldwide. … In this article, I will touch on the expectations for CDNA’s growth and when analysts expect the company to become profitable

Simply Wall St -

Did CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) Insiders Sell Shares?

So we'll take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA). … In the last twelve months, the biggest single sale by an insider was when CEO & Director Peter Maag sold US$2.9m worth of shares at a price of US$28.59 per share. … That means that even when the share price was below the current price of US$36.90, an insider wanted to cash in some shares.

Simply Wall St -

Why We Think CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) Could Be Worth Looking At

CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) is a stock with outstanding fundamental characteristics. … When we build an investment case, we need to look at the stock with a holistic perspective. … In the case of CDNA, it

Simply Wall St -

What Did CareDx, Inc's (NASDAQ:CDNA) CEO Take Home Last Year?

This analysis aims first to contrast CEO compensation with other companies that have similar market capitalization. … Participate in a short research study and receive a 6-month subscription to the award winning Simply Wall St research tool (valued at $60) … How Does Peter Maag's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies?

Simply Wall St -

Loss-Making CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) Expected To Breakeven

CareDx, Inc., a transplant diagnostics company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of diagnostic surveillance solutions for transplant patients worldwide. … The US$1.0b market-cap posted a loss in its most recent financial year of -US$55.5m and a latest trailing-twelve-month loss of -US$74.7m leading to an even wider gap between loss and breakeven. … View our latest analysis for CareDx

Simply Wall St -

Should You Be Worried About Insider Transactions At CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA)?

So shareholders might well want to know whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA). … In the last twelve months, the biggest single sale by an insider was when CEO & Director Peter Maag sold US$2.9m worth of shares at a price of US$28.59 per share. … So we know that an insider sold shares at around the present share price of US$24.38.

Simply Wall St -

Does CareDx Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) Have A Particularly Volatile Share Price?

If you're interested in CareDx Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA), then you might want to consider its beta (a measure of share price volatility) in order to understand how the stock could impact your portfolio. … Beta is a widely used metric to measure a stock's exposure to market risk (volatility). … A stock with a beta below one is either less volatile than the market, or more volatile but not corellated with the overall market.

Simply Wall St -

CDNA Company Info

Description

CareDx, Inc., a transplant diagnostics company, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of diagnostic solutions for transplant patients worldwide. The company develops and provides a diagnostic surveillance testing solution for heart and kidney transplant recipients. It offers AlloMap, a heart transplant molecular test; and AlloSure, a donor-derived cell-free DNA test initially used for kidney transplant patients. The company also develops, manufactures, markets, and sells products that increase the chance of successful transplants by facilitating a match between a donor and a recipient of stem cells and organs. It sells Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence-specific primer technology; Olerup SBT, a product range for sequence-based typing of HLA alleles; QTYPE that enables speed and precision in HLA typing at a low to intermediate resolution for samples that require a fast turn-around-time and uses real-time polymerase chain reaction methodology; and TruSight HLA, a high resolution solution that uses next generation sequencing methodology. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina for the development, commercialization, and distribution of next generation sequencing product line for use in transplantation diagnostic testing. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. CareDx, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Brisbane, California.

Details
Name: CareDx, Inc
CDNA
Exchange: NasdaqGM
Founded: 1998
$1,441,764,621
42,119,913
Website: http://www.caredxinc.com
Address: CareDx, Inc
3260 Bayshore Boulevard,
Brisbane,
California, 94005,
United States
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
NasdaqGM CDNA Common Stock Nasdaq Global Market US USD 18. Jul 2014
DB 1K9 Common Stock Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 18. Jul 2014
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
229
CareDx employees.
Industry
Biotechnology
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/06/25 00:13
End of day share price update: 2019/06/24 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/06/24
Last earnings filing: 2019/05/08
Last earnings reported: 2019/03/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.