Snowflake Score | |
---|---|
Valuation | 4/6 |
Future Growth | 1/6 |
Past Performance | 0/6 |
Financial Health | 6/6 |
Dividends | 0/6 |
CDNA Stock Overview
CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide.
CareDx Competitors
Price History & Performance
Historical stock prices | |
---|---|
Current Share Price | US$21.53 |
52 Week High | US$81.45 |
52 Week Low | US$19.35 |
Beta | 0.88 |
1 Month Change | -0.46% |
3 Month Change | -14.39% |
1 Year Change | -69.63% |
3 Year Change | -9.31% |
5 Year Change | 901.40% |
Change since IPO | 115.30% |
Recent News & Updates
CareDx: Best Near Cap-Gain Health Diagnostics Prospect Say Market Makers
Which of the healthcare diagnostic services producers is now a better buy to help build your portfolio’s near-term capital value? Near-term only, repetition provides long term. Find out here what the best-informed, big-$ investors now think likely to happen (good and bad) in the next 3+ months to prices of several stocks now seen attractively priced. Stock investing alternatives to which they now (or might) commit substantial capital. This review tells what happened to those stocks at all times in the past 5 years when they looked as promising as they do now. Spelled out in comparisons with competitors. To understand how best to take advantage of this, read Investment Thesis. Investment Thesis 21st Century paces of change in technology and rational behavior (not of emotional reactions) seriously disrupt the accepted productive investment strategy of the 20th century. Passive investing that worked back then can't compete now. The most important strategy change is the shortening of forecast horizons, with a shift from the multi-year passive approach of buy&hold to the active strategy of specific price-change target achievement or time-limit actions, with reinvestment set to new nearer-term targets. That change avoids the irretrievable loss of invested time spent destructively by failure to recognize shifting evolutions like the cases of IBM (IBM), Kodak (KODK), GM (GM), Xerox (XRX), GE (GE) and many others. It recognizes the evolutions in medical, communication and information technologies and enjoys their operational benefits already present in extended lifetimes, trade-commission-free investments, and coming in transportation ownership and energy usage. But it requires the ability to make valid direct comparisons of value between investment reward prospects and risk exposures in the uncertain future. Since uncertainty expands as the future dimension increases, shorter forecast horizons are a means of improving the reward-to-risk comparison. That shortening is now best invoked at the investment entry point by learning Market-Maker [MM] expectations for coming prices. When their targets are reached the expanded capital is then reintroduced at the exit/reinvestment point to new promising candidates, with their own specific near-term of expectations for target prices compounding prior-stock gains. The MM's constant presence, extensive global communications and human resources dedicated to monitoring industry-focused competitive evolution sharpens MM price expectations. But the MMs job is to get buyers and sellers to agree on exchanging share ownership - without having to take on risk while doing it. Others in the MM community provide protection for capital of the transaction negotiators which gets temporarily exposed to price-change risk. Derivative-securities deals to hedge undesired price changes are regularly created. The deals' prices and contracts provide an honest window to view MM price expectations, the best indication of likely near-term outlook. This article focuses primarily on CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) Description of Equity Subject Company "CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of products and technologies. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California." Source: Yahoo Finance Alternative Investments Compared The investment selections most frequently visited by users of Yahoo Finance were added to by principal holdings of stocks in the subject's ETF, and as a market-proxy the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in making up a comparison group against which to match CDNA Following the same analysis as with CDNA, historical sampling of today's Risk~Reward balances were taken for each of the alternative investments. They are mapped out in Figure 1. Figure 1 blockdesk.com (used with permission). Expected rewards for these securities are the typical gains from current closing market price seen worth protecting short positions at prior times like those of today. Their measure is on the horizontal green scale. The risk dimension is of actual price draw-downs at their most extreme point while being held in previous pursuit of upside rewards similar to the ones currently being seen. They are measured on the red vertical scale. Both scales are of percent change from zero to 25%. Any stock or ETF whose present risk exposure exceeds its reward prospect will be above the dotted diagonal line. Capital-gain attractive to-buy issues are in the directions down and to the right. Our principal interest is in CDNA at location [10], on the dotted diagonal at its midpoint. A smaller "market index" norm of reward~risk tradeoffs is offered by SPY at [12]. Comparing features of Alternative Investment Stocks The Figure 1 map provides a good visual comparison of the two most important aspects of every equity investment in the short term. There are other aspects of comparison which this map sometimes does not communicate well, particularly when general market perspectives like those of SPY are involved. Where questions of "how likely" are present other comparative tables, like Figure 2, may be useful. Yellow highlighting of the table's cells emphasize factors important to securities valuations and the security CDNA, most promising of near capital gain as ranked in column [R]. Figure 2 blockdesk.com (used with permission) Why do all this math? Figure 2's purpose is to attempt universally comparable answers, stock by stock, of a) How BIG the prospective price gain payoff may be, b) how LIKELY the payoff will be a profitable experience, c) how SOON it may happen, and d) what price drawdown RISK may be encountered during its holding period. Readers familiar with our analysis methods after quick examination of Figure 2 may wish to skip to the next section viewing Price range forecast trends for CDNA. Column headers for Figure 2 define investment-choice preference elements for each row stock whose symbol appears at the left in column [A]. The elements are derived or calculated separately for each stock, based on the specifics of its situation and current-day MM price-range forecasts. Data in red numerals are negative, usually undesirable to "long" holding positions. Table cells with yellow fills are of data for the stocks of principal interest and of all issues at the ranking column, [R]. The price-range forecast limits of columns [B] and [C] get defined by MM hedging actions to protect firm capital required to be put at risk of price changes from volume trade orders placed by big-$ "institutional" clients. [E] measures potential upside risks for MM short positions created to fill such orders, and reward potentials for the buy-side positions so created. Prior forecasts like the present provide a history of relevant price draw-down risks for buyers. The most severe ones actually encountered are in [F], during holding periods in effort to reach [E] gains. Those are where buyers are emotionally most likely to accept losses. The Range Index [G] tells where today's price lies relative to the MM community's forecast of upper and lower limits of coming prices. Its numeric is the percentage proportion of the full low to high forecast seen below the current market price. [H] tells what proportion of the [L] sample of prior like-balance forecasts have earned gains by either having price reach its [B] target or be above its [D] entry cost at the end of a 3-month max-patience holding period limit. [ I ] gives the net gains-losses of those [L] experiences. What makes RDN most attractive in the group at this point in time is its basic strength in capturing much of the forecast upside [E] in realized payoffs of [ I ], shown in [N] as a credibility ratio. Only one of its competitors manages to realize profits of half of what has been implied as an upside price gain forecast target. Further Reward~Risk tradeoffs involve using the [H] odds for gains with the 100 - H loss odds as weights for N-conditioned [E] and for [F], for a combined-return score [Q]. The typical position holding period [J] on [Q] provides a figure of merit [fom] ranking measure [R] useful in portfolio position preferencing. Figure 2 is row-ranked on [R] among alternative candidate securities, with CDNA in top rank. Along with the candidate-specific stocks these selection considerations are provided for the averages of some 3000 stocks for which MM price-range forecasts are available today, and 20 of the best-ranked (by fom) of those forecasts, as well as the forecast for S&P 500 Index ETF as an equity-market proxy.
Shareholder Returns
CDNA | US Biotechs | US Market | |
---|---|---|---|
7D | -14.3% | -2.0% | 1.1% |
1Y | -69.6% | -23.0% | -9.0% |
Return vs Industry: CDNA underperformed the US Biotechs industry which returned -22.2% over the past year.
Return vs Market: CDNA underperformed the US Market which returned -8.9% over the past year.
Price Volatility
CDNA volatility | |
---|---|
CDNA Average Weekly Movement | 11.5% |
Biotechs Industry Average Movement | 12.3% |
Market Average Movement | 7.6% |
10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 17.0% |
10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: CDNA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 12% a week.
Volatility Over Time: CDNA's weekly volatility (12%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
---|---|---|---|
1998 | 639 | Reg Seeto | https://www.caredx.com |
CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software.
CareDx Fundamentals Summary
CDNA fundamental statistics | |
---|---|
Market Cap | US$1.15b |
Earnings (TTM) | -US$69.39m |
Revenue (TTM) | US$314.86m |
3.7x
P/S Ratio-16.6x
P/E RatioIs CDNA overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
CDNA income statement (TTM) | |
---|---|
Revenue | US$314.86m |
Cost of Revenue | US$106.26m |
Gross Profit | US$208.60m |
Other Expenses | US$277.99m |
Earnings | -US$69.39m |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
n/a
Earnings per share (EPS) | -1.30 |
Gross Margin | 66.25% |
Net Profit Margin | -22.04% |
Debt/Equity Ratio | 0% |
How did CDNA perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonValuation
Is CDNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CDNA?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
What is CDNA's n/a Ratio? | |
---|---|
n/a Ratio | 0x |
n/a | n/a |
Market Cap | US$1.15b |
Key Statistics | |
---|---|
Enterprise Value/Revenue | 2.7x |
Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -16x |
PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does CDNA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
CDNA PS Ratio vs Peers |
---|
Company | PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|
Peer Average | 12.1x | ||
MORF Morphic Holding | 15.8x | -3.1% | US$1.2b |
CDMO Avid Bioservices | 9.8x | 22.0% | US$1.2b |
SRNE Sorrento Therapeutics | 14.7x | n/a | US$808.5m |
CPRX Catalyst Pharmaceuticals | 8.3x | 12.4% | US$1.4b |
CDNA CareDx | 3.7x | 12.4% | US$1.2b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CDNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.7x) compared to the peer average (12.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does CDNA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CDNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.7x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (16.9x)
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is CDNA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
Fair Ratio | |
---|---|
Current PS Ratio | 3.7x |
Fair PS Ratio | 6.8x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: CDNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.8x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of CDNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate CDNA's fair value for valuation analysis.
Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate CDNA's fair value for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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Future Growth
How is CareDx forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?
Future Growth Score
1/6Future Growth Score 1/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
35.5%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: CDNA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: CDNA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: CDNA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: CDNA's revenue (12.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: CDNA's revenue (12.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if CDNA's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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Past Performance
How has CareDx performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
0/6Past Performance Score 0/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
12.5%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: CDNA is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: CDNA is currently unprofitable.
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: CDNA is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 12.5% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare CDNA's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: CDNA is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (24.5%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: CDNA has a negative Return on Equity (-15.64%), as it is currently unprofitable.
Discover strong past performing companies
Financial Health
How is CareDx's financial position?
Financial Health Score
6/6Financial Health Score 6/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: CDNA's short term assets ($403.9M) exceed its short term liabilities ($78.5M).
Long Term Liabilities: CDNA's short term assets ($403.9M) exceed its long term liabilities ($19.3M).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: CDNA is debt free.
Reducing Debt: CDNA has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 286.1%.
Balance Sheet
Cash Runway Analysis
For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.
Stable Cash Runway: CDNA has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.
Forecast Cash Runway: CDNA has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 6.1% each year
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Dividend
What is CareDx current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
0/6Dividend Score 0/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CDNA's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CDNA's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CDNA's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CDNA's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as CDNA has not reported any payouts.
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Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
1.0yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Reg Seeto (50 yo)
3.75yrs
Tenure
US$7,090,121
Compensation
Dr. Reginald Seeto, also known as Reg, M.D., MBBS, has been the President at CareDx, Inc. since November 26, 2018 and its Chief Executive Officer and Director since November 1, 2020. He served as Chief Bus...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Reg's total compensation ($USD7.09M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD3.84M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Reg's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: CDNA's management team is not considered experienced ( 1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.
Board Members
Experienced Board: CDNA's board of directors are considered experienced (8.3 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: CDNA insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
CareDx, Inc's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: CareDx, Inc
- Ticker: CDNA
- Exchange: NasdaqGM
- Founded: 1998
- Industry: Biotechnology
- Sector: Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
- Implied Market Cap: US$1.151b
- Shares outstanding: 53.46m
- Website: https://www.caredx.com
Number of Employees
Location
- CareDx, Inc
- 1 Tower Place
- 9th Floor
- South San Francisco
- California
- 94080
- United States
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
---|---|
Company Analysis | 2022/08/17 00:00 |
End of Day Share Price | 2022/08/17 00:00 |
Earnings | 2022/06/30 |
Annual Earnings | 2021/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.