company background image
CDNA

CareDx NasdaqGM:CDNA Stock Report

Last Price

US$21.53

Market Cap

US$1.2b

7D

-14.3%

1Y

-69.6%

Updated

17 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
CDNA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation4/6
Future Growth1/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health6/6
Dividends0/6

CDNA Stock Overview

CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide.

CareDx Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for CareDx
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$21.53
52 Week HighUS$81.45
52 Week LowUS$19.35
Beta0.88
1 Month Change-0.46%
3 Month Change-14.39%
1 Year Change-69.63%
3 Year Change-9.31%
5 Year Change901.40%
Change since IPO115.30%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 08

CareDx: Best Near Cap-Gain Health Diagnostics Prospect Say Market Makers

Which of the healthcare diagnostic services producers is now a better buy to help build your portfolio’s near-term capital value? Near-term only, repetition provides long term. Find out here what the best-informed, big-$ investors now think likely to happen (good and bad) in the next 3+ months to prices of several stocks now seen attractively priced. Stock investing alternatives to which they now (or might) commit substantial capital. This review tells what happened to those stocks at all times in the past 5 years when they looked as promising as they do now. Spelled out in comparisons with competitors. To understand how best to take advantage of this, read Investment Thesis. Investment Thesis 21st Century paces of change in technology and rational behavior (not of emotional reactions) seriously disrupt the accepted productive investment strategy of the 20th century. Passive investing that worked back then can't compete now. The most important strategy change is the shortening of forecast horizons, with a shift from the multi-year passive approach of buy&hold to the active strategy of specific price-change target achievement or time-limit actions, with reinvestment set to new nearer-term targets. That change avoids the irretrievable loss of invested time spent destructively by failure to recognize shifting evolutions like the cases of IBM (IBM), Kodak (KODK), GM (GM), Xerox (XRX), GE (GE) and many others. It recognizes the evolutions in medical, communication and information technologies and enjoys their operational benefits already present in extended lifetimes, trade-commission-free investments, and coming in transportation ownership and energy usage. But it requires the ability to make valid direct comparisons of value between investment reward prospects and risk exposures in the uncertain future. Since uncertainty expands as the future dimension increases, shorter forecast horizons are a means of improving the reward-to-risk comparison. That shortening is now best invoked at the investment entry point by learning Market-Maker [MM] expectations for coming prices. When their targets are reached the expanded capital is then reintroduced at the exit/reinvestment point to new promising candidates, with their own specific near-term of expectations for target prices compounding prior-stock gains. The MM's constant presence, extensive global communications and human resources dedicated to monitoring industry-focused competitive evolution sharpens MM price expectations. But the MMs job is to get buyers and sellers to agree on exchanging share ownership - without having to take on risk while doing it. Others in the MM community provide protection for capital of the transaction negotiators which gets temporarily exposed to price-change risk. Derivative-securities deals to hedge undesired price changes are regularly created. The deals' prices and contracts provide an honest window to view MM price expectations, the best indication of likely near-term outlook. This article focuses primarily on CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) Description of Equity Subject Company "CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of products and technologies. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California." Source: Yahoo Finance Alternative Investments Compared The investment selections most frequently visited by users of Yahoo Finance were added to by principal holdings of stocks in the subject's ETF, and as a market-proxy the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in making up a comparison group against which to match CDNA Following the same analysis as with CDNA, historical sampling of today's Risk~Reward balances were taken for each of the alternative investments. They are mapped out in Figure 1. Figure 1 blockdesk.com (used with permission). Expected rewards for these securities are the typical gains from current closing market price seen worth protecting short positions at prior times like those of today. Their measure is on the horizontal green scale. The risk dimension is of actual price draw-downs at their most extreme point while being held in previous pursuit of upside rewards similar to the ones currently being seen. They are measured on the red vertical scale. Both scales are of percent change from zero to 25%. Any stock or ETF whose present risk exposure exceeds its reward prospect will be above the dotted diagonal line. Capital-gain attractive to-buy issues are in the directions down and to the right. Our principal interest is in CDNA at location [10], on the dotted diagonal at its midpoint. A smaller "market index" norm of reward~risk tradeoffs is offered by SPY at [12]. Comparing features of Alternative Investment Stocks The Figure 1 map provides a good visual comparison of the two most important aspects of every equity investment in the short term. There are other aspects of comparison which this map sometimes does not communicate well, particularly when general market perspectives like those of SPY are involved. Where questions of "how likely" are present other comparative tables, like Figure 2, may be useful. Yellow highlighting of the table's cells emphasize factors important to securities valuations and the security CDNA, most promising of near capital gain as ranked in column [R]. Figure 2 blockdesk.com (used with permission) Why do all this math? Figure 2's purpose is to attempt universally comparable answers, stock by stock, of a) How BIG the prospective price gain payoff may be, b) how LIKELY the payoff will be a profitable experience, c) how SOON it may happen, and d) what price drawdown RISK may be encountered during its holding period. Readers familiar with our analysis methods after quick examination of Figure 2 may wish to skip to the next section viewing Price range forecast trends for CDNA. Column headers for Figure 2 define investment-choice preference elements for each row stock whose symbol appears at the left in column [A]. The elements are derived or calculated separately for each stock, based on the specifics of its situation and current-day MM price-range forecasts. Data in red numerals are negative, usually undesirable to "long" holding positions. Table cells with yellow fills are of data for the stocks of principal interest and of all issues at the ranking column, [R]. The price-range forecast limits of columns [B] and [C] get defined by MM hedging actions to protect firm capital required to be put at risk of price changes from volume trade orders placed by big-$ "institutional" clients. [E] measures potential upside risks for MM short positions created to fill such orders, and reward potentials for the buy-side positions so created. Prior forecasts like the present provide a history of relevant price draw-down risks for buyers. The most severe ones actually encountered are in [F], during holding periods in effort to reach [E] gains. Those are where buyers are emotionally most likely to accept losses. The Range Index [G] tells where today's price lies relative to the MM community's forecast of upper and lower limits of coming prices. Its numeric is the percentage proportion of the full low to high forecast seen below the current market price. [H] tells what proportion of the [L] sample of prior like-balance forecasts have earned gains by either having price reach its [B] target or be above its [D] entry cost at the end of a 3-month max-patience holding period limit. [ I ] gives the net gains-losses of those [L] experiences. What makes RDN most attractive in the group at this point in time is its basic strength in capturing much of the forecast upside [E] in realized payoffs of [ I ], shown in [N] as a credibility ratio. Only one of its competitors manages to realize profits of half of what has been implied as an upside price gain forecast target. Further Reward~Risk tradeoffs involve using the [H] odds for gains with the 100 - H loss odds as weights for N-conditioned [E] and for [F], for a combined-return score [Q]. The typical position holding period [J] on [Q] provides a figure of merit [fom] ranking measure [R] useful in portfolio position preferencing. Figure 2 is row-ranked on [R] among alternative candidate securities, with CDNA in top rank. Along with the candidate-specific stocks these selection considerations are provided for the averages of some 3000 stocks for which MM price-range forecasts are available today, and 20 of the best-ranked (by fom) of those forecasts, as well as the forecast for S&P 500 Index ETF as an equity-market proxy.

Shareholder Returns

CDNAUS BiotechsUS Market
7D-14.3%-2.0%1.1%
1Y-69.6%-23.0%-9.0%

Return vs Industry: CDNA underperformed the US Biotechs industry which returned -22.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CDNA underperformed the US Market which returned -8.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CDNA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CDNA volatility
CDNA Average Weekly Movement11.5%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement12.3%
Market Average Movement7.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market17.0%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.1%

Stable Share Price: CDNA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 12% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CDNA's weekly volatility (12%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
1998639Reg Seetohttps://www.caredx.com

CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software.

CareDx Fundamentals Summary

How do CareDx's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CDNA fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$1.15b
Earnings (TTM)-US$69.39m
Revenue (TTM)US$314.86m

3.7x

P/S Ratio

-16.6x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CDNA income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$314.86m
Cost of RevenueUS$106.26m
Gross ProfitUS$208.60m
Other ExpensesUS$277.99m
Earnings-US$69.39m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)-1.30
Gross Margin66.25%
Net Profit Margin-22.04%
Debt/Equity Ratio0%

How did CDNA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is CDNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CDNA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

CDNA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-16x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does CDNA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

CDNA PS Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PS ratio for CDNA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.1x
MORF Morphic Holding
15.8x-3.1%US$1.2b
CDMO Avid Bioservices
9.8x22.0%US$1.2b
SRNE Sorrento Therapeutics
14.7xn/aUS$808.5m
CPRX Catalyst Pharmaceuticals
8.3x12.4%US$1.4b
CDNA CareDx
3.7x12.4%US$1.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CDNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.7x) compared to the peer average (12.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CDNA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CDNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.7x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (16.9x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CDNA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CDNA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.7x
Fair PS Ratio6.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: CDNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.8x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CDNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate CDNA's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate CDNA's fair value for valuation analysis.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is CareDx forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


35.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CDNA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: CDNA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: CDNA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CDNA's revenue (12.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CDNA's revenue (12.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if CDNA's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has CareDx performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


12.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CDNA is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: CDNA is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CDNA is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 12.5% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare CDNA's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: CDNA is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (24.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: CDNA has a negative Return on Equity (-15.64%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is CareDx's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Stable Cash Runway

  • Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CDNA's short term assets ($403.9M) exceed its short term liabilities ($78.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: CDNA's short term assets ($403.9M) exceed its long term liabilities ($19.3M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CDNA is debt free.

Reducing Debt: CDNA has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 286.1%.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: CDNA has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: CDNA has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 6.1% each year


Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is CareDx current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CDNA's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CDNA's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CDNA's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CDNA's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as CDNA has not reported any payouts.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Reg Seeto (50 yo)

3.75yrs

Tenure

US$7,090,121

Compensation

Dr. Reginald Seeto, also known as Reg, M.D., MBBS, has been the President at CareDx, Inc. since November 26, 2018 and its Chief Executive Officer and Director since November 1, 2020. He served as Chief Bus...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Reg's total compensation ($USD7.09M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD3.84M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Reg's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CDNA's management team is not considered experienced ( 1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

Experienced Board: CDNA's board of directors are considered experienced (8.3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: CDNA insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

CareDx, Inc's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: CareDx, Inc
  • Ticker: CDNA
  • Exchange: NasdaqGM
  • Founded: 1998
  • Industry: Biotechnology
  • Sector: Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
  • Implied Market Cap: US$1.151b
  • Shares outstanding: 53.46m
  • Website: https://www.caredx.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • CareDx, Inc
  • 1 Tower Place
  • 9th Floor
  • South San Francisco
  • California
  • 94080
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/17 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/17 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.