Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGM:AUPH) - Share price, News & Analysis

AUPH fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	5/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

AUPH Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 85.6% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 70.8% per year

Risk Analysis

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Competitors

AstraZeneca

LSE:AZN

UK£158.8b

GSK

LSE:GSK

UK£87.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$11.65
52 Week High	US$33.97
52 Week Low	US$8.86
Beta	1.09
1 Month Change	4.48%
3 Month Change	-33.20%
1 Year Change	-9.13%
3 Year Change	78.41%
5 Year Change	76.78%
Change since IPO	468.29%

Recent News & Updates

May 20

Aurinia: Redemption On Lupkynis Sales And Possible EMA Approval

Aurinia and its partner OPEL expect a decision from the EMA in the 2nd half of 2022 on whether or not Lupkynis (voclosporin) will be approved for lupus nephritis in the European territories. About $21.6 million in net revenue was generated for Q1 of 2022, due to sales of Lupkynis; if Omicron variant doesn't resurge, then it's possible sales could improve further. Two presentations of results of AURORA-2 study using Lupkynis for LN expected end of May and in June of 2022; from there, manuscript of full results expected 2nd half of 2022. The global lupus nephritis market could reach $3.1 billion by 2027.

Shareholder Returns

	AUPH	US Biotechs	US Market
7D	17.8%	3.6%	0.1%
1Y	-9.1%	-22.1%	-12.7%

Return vs Industry: AUPH exceeded the US Biotechs industry which returned -21.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AUPH exceeded the US Market which returned -11.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AUPH's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AUPH volatility
AUPH Average Weekly Movement	14.9%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement	12.4%
Market Average Movement	8.0%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.0%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.0%

Stable Share Price: AUPH is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 15% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AUPH's weekly volatility (15%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
n/a	300	Peter Greenleaf	https://www.auriniapharma.com

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing therapies to treat various diseases with unmet medical need in the United States and internationally. The company offers LUPKYNIS for the treatment of adult patients with active lupus nephritis. It has a collaboration and license agreement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Fundamentals Summary

How do Aurinia Pharmaceuticals's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AUPH fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$1.59b
Earnings (TTM)	-US$168.22m
Revenue (TTM)	US$66.32m

24.9x

P/S Ratio

-9.8x

P/E Ratio

Is AUPH overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AUPH income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$66.32m
Cost of Revenue	US$55.23m
Gross Profit	US$11.09m
Other Expenses	US$179.31m
Earnings	-US$168.22m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-1.19
Gross Margin	16.72%
Net Profit Margin	-253.66%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did AUPH perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: AUPH ($11.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($81.12)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AUPH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: AUPH is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US Biotechs industry average.

PE vs Market: AUPH is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AUPH's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: AUPH is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.7x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (1.5x).

Future Growth

How is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

70.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AUPH is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: AUPH is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: AUPH's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AUPH's revenue (41.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AUPH's revenue (41.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if AUPH's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Past Performance

How has Aurinia Pharmaceuticals performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-25.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AUPH is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: AUPH is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AUPH is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 25.5% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare AUPH's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: AUPH is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (96.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: AUPH has a negative Return on Equity (-37.54%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Financial Health

How is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AUPH's short term assets ($477.6M) exceed its short term liabilities ($33.8M).

Long Term Liabilities: AUPH's short term assets ($477.6M) exceed its long term liabilities ($24.9M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AUPH is debt free.

Reducing Debt: AUPH has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: AUPH has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if AUPH has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.

Dividend

What is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate AUPH's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate AUPH's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AUPH's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AUPH's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as AUPH has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Peter Greenleaf (51 yo)

3.08yrs

Tenure

US$1,240,389

Compensation

Mr. Peter S. Greenleaf, M.B.A., has been President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. since April 29, 2019. Mr. Greenleaf has been a Director at Antares Pharma, Inc. sinc...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Peter's total compensation ($USD1.24M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.41M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Peter's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AUPH's management team is considered experienced (2.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: AUPH's board of directors are considered experienced (3.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: AUPH insiders have sold more shares than they have bought in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 10.6%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/19 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/19 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31