Bilibili (NasdaqGS:BILI) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of BILI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BILI ($25.6) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($143.12)

BILI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

BILI Stock Overview

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services for the young generations in the People’s Republic of China.

Rewards

Trading at 82.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 21.7% per year

Risk Analysis

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Bilibili Competitors

Take-Two Interactive Software

NasdaqGS:TTWO

US$19.2b

Playtika Holding

NasdaqGS:PLTK

US$5.5b

Roblox

NYSE:RBLX

US$19.5b

Sea

NYSE:SE

US$37.4b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Bilibili
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$25.60
52 Week High	US$124.39
52 Week Low	US$14.93
Beta	1.26
1 Month Change	14.54%
3 Month Change	-7.31%
1 Year Change	-78.86%
3 Year Change	53.94%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	127.76%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 30

Bilibili shareholders approve primary listing conversion on Hong Kong Stock Exchange

Bilibili (NASDAQ:BILI) announced that at its AGM all the proposed resolutions set out were duly passed. Shareholders approved the proposed conversion to primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, effectively from Oct.3, 2022, wherein the company will continue to make the necessary arrangements to facilitate compliance with all applicable laws, regulation and stock exchange rules as a dual-primary listed issuer on Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Global Select Market.

Jun 10

Bilibili: Appreciate Any Share Price Weakness As A Buying Opportunity

Bilibili stock was up as much as 30% since I have initiated coverage. However, after Q1 2022 reports, the stock fell 15% on a single day. In this article I analyze Bilibili's Q1 results, based on the company's quarterly SEC earnings filing and analyst conference. On a long-term basis, Bilibili is still a clear buying opportunity, as the company has managed to build impressive scale, content and user engagement. If anything, the Q1 results only confirmed Bilibili's leading position as a streaming company based on non-financial metrics. I reiterate my buy recommendation with $33.07 / share target price.

Jun 07

Does Bilibili (NASDAQ:BILI) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...

Shareholder Returns

	BILI	US Entertainment	US Market
7D	-8.1%	-2.7%	-0.6%
1Y	-78.9%	-53.6%	-21.7%

Return vs Industry: BILI underperformed the US Entertainment industry which returned -53.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BILI underperformed the US Market which returned -20.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BILI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BILI volatility
BILI Average Weekly Movement	14.3%
Entertainment Industry Average Movement	11.8%
Market Average Movement	8.0%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: BILI is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 14% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BILI's weekly volatility (14%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2009	12,281	Rui Chen	https://www.bilibili.com

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services for the young generations in the People’s Republic of China. Its platform offers a range of content, including video services, mobile games, and value-added service, as well as ACG-related comic and audio content. The company’s video services include professional user generated videos, occupationally generated videos, and live broadcasting.

Bilibili Fundamentals Summary

How do Bilibili's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BILI fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥66.99b
Earnings (TTM)	-CN¥8.17b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥20.54b

3.3x

P/S Ratio

-8.2x

P/E Ratio

Is BILI overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BILI income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥20.54b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥16.62b
Gross Profit	CN¥3.91b
Other Expenses	CN¥12.08b
Earnings	-CN¥8.17b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-20.91
Gross Margin	19.05%
Net Profit Margin	-39.77%
Debt/Equity Ratio	92.1%

How did BILI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BILI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BILI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BILI. This is calculated by dividing BILI's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BILI's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥66.99b

BILI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-12.5x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does BILI's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

BILI PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for BILI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	5.1x
TTWO Take-Two Interactive Software	5.5x	21.8%	US$19.2b
PLTK Playtika Holding	2.1x	6.2%	US$5.5b
RBLX Roblox	9.4x	15.6%	US$19.5b
SE Sea	3.4x	20.2%	US$37.4b
BILI Bilibili	3.3x	21.7%	US$10.0b

Forward PS

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: BILI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the peer average (5.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BILI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Entertainment Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: BILI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the US Entertainment industry average (1.7x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BILI's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BILI PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	3.3x
Fair PS Ratio	3.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: BILI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.5x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BILI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BILI ($25.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($143.12)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BILI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate BILI's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is Bilibili forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 37 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

51.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BILI is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: BILI is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: BILI is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BILI's revenue (21.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BILI's revenue (21.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BILI is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Bilibili performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-60.8%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BILI is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: BILI is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BILI is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 60.8% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare BILI's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: BILI is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Entertainment industry (3.7%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: BILI has a negative Return on Equity (-42.05%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Bilibili's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BILI's short term assets (CN¥30.7B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥11.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: BILI's short term assets (CN¥30.7B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥17.1B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BILI has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if BILI's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: BILI has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if BILI has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.

Discover healthy companies

Dividend

What is Bilibili current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate BILI's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate BILI's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BILI's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if BILI's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as BILI has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

7.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Rui Chen (43 yo)

7.58yrs

Tenure

Mr. Rui Chen serves as Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Bilibili Inc. since November 2014. He is a serial entrepreneur with experience in the Internet and technology-related industries...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BILI's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.6 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: BILI's board of directors are considered experienced (7.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/30 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/30 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31