Stock Analysis

While shareholders of Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) are in the black over 5 years, those who bought a week ago aren't so fortunate

NasdaqGS:CENX
Source: Shutterstock

Long term investing can be life changing when you buy and hold the truly great businesses. And highest quality companies can see their share prices grow by huge amounts. Just think about the savvy investors who held Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ:CENX) shares for the last five years, while they gained 324%. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. On the other hand, the stock price has retraced 8.8% in the last week. But this could be related to the soft market, with stocks selling off around 5.6% in the last week.

Although Century Aluminum has shed US$156m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the last half decade, Century Aluminum became profitable. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:CENX Earnings Per Share Growth April 4th 2025

It is of course excellent to see how Century Aluminum has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time .

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Century Aluminum shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 8.4% over the last year. However, that falls short of the 33% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Century Aluminum you should be aware of, and 2 of them shouldn't be ignored.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.