Century Aluminum Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 5/6
Century Aluminum has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 57.6%, while the Metals and Mining industry saw earnings declining at 8.4% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 2.7% per year. Century Aluminum's return on equity is 24.8%, and it has net margins of 13.7%.
Key information
57.56%
Earnings growth rate
57.55%
EPS growth rate
| Metals and Mining Industry Growth | 26.40% |
| Revenue growth rate | 2.68% |
| Return on equity | 24.80% |
| Net Margin | 13.73% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Apr 22
Century Aluminum: A Decade-Long Growth Runway
Summary Century Aluminum is the largest domestic producer of primary aluminum in the United States, operating smelters in Kentucky, South Carolina, and Iceland. At the time of purchase, CENX shares were trading at approximately 6.1x our 2026E EBITDA and roughly 2.1x trailing twelve-month sales. Century's role in reducing American dependence on imported aluminum from higher-carbon foreign sources provides an additional sustainability dimension. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 20
CENX: Section 232 Tariffs Will Support Future Cash Flows
Century Aluminum's updated analyst price target has moved from $66 to about $79, with analysts pointing to refreshed views on fair value, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions as key drivers of the shift. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Century Aluminum clusters around higher price targets and updated views on earnings power, with analysts reworking their models for aluminum pricing, premiums and upcoming capital spending.Narrative Update • Apr 06
CENX: Section 232 Tariffs And Oklahoma Smelter Plans Will Shape Future Cash Flows
Narrative Update: Century Aluminum Analyst Targets Analysts have lifted their average price target on Century Aluminum to $69. They cite updated supply and demand work that points to a wider projected aluminum deficit, firm Midwest Premiums, and potential earnings support from elevated power costs and new smelter plans in Oklahoma.Narrative Update • Mar 22
CENX: Section 232 Tariffs Will Support Future Cash Flows For Oklahoma Project
Century Aluminum's updated fair value estimate of $66, up from $63.33, reflects analysts' higher price targets in the $68 to $69 range as they factor in tighter aluminum supply, firm Midwest premiums, and anticipated EBITDA strength ahead of new smelter investments. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research shows bullish analysts lifting their price targets into the high $60s as they factor in updated aluminum market views and company specific guidance.Narrative Update • Mar 07
CENX: Section 232 Tariffs And Oklahoma Smelter Project Will Drive Future Upside
Narrative Update: Century Aluminum Analyst Price Target Shift The analyst price target for Century Aluminum has moved from about $59 to roughly $63. Analysts point to stronger Q1 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $215 million to $235 million and expectations for solid cash generation supported by elevated Midwest Premiums ahead of new smelter capex in Oklahoma.Narrative Update • Feb 20
CENX: Revised Risk Assumptions And Tariffs Will Shape Bullish Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Century Aluminum by $27 to $59, citing updated assumptions on discount rates, margins, and future P/E that refine their view of the stock’s valuation and risk profile. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary around the new US$59 price target focuses less on short term trading moves and more on how updated assumptions about discount rates, margins, and future P/E feed into Century Aluminum’s longer term risk and reward profile.Narrative Update • Feb 05
CENX: Updated Assumptions Around Margins And Risk Will Drive Bullish Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target on Century Aluminum from US$50 to US$59, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E that they report are reflected in recent research. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts see the higher US$59 target as better aligned with their updated assumptions on revenue growth, indicating they now model a stronger earnings power for Century Aluminum than in prior research.
New Narrative • Jan 29
Bullish View Expects New U.S. Greenfield Smelter To Transform Long Term Outlook
Catalysts About Century Aluminum Century Aluminum produces primary aluminum and related products for customers in the U.S. and Europe. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Analysis Article • Jan 29
Earnings Tell The Story For Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ:CENX) As Its Stock Soars 26%
Century Aluminum Company ( NASDAQ:CENX ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month...Narrative Update • Jan 21
CENX: Emissions Exemption And Updated Assumptions Will Shape Balanced Return Profile
Analysts have raised their price target on Century Aluminum from US$40 to US$50. They cite updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, which they believe better reflect the stock's current risk and return profile.Narrative Update • Jan 06
CENX: Emissions Exemption And Operational Disruption Will Shape Balanced Future Prospects
Analysts have revised their price target on Century Aluminum from US$36 to US$40, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E that result in a higher estimated fair value. What's in the News U.S. President Donald Trump granted a two year compliance exemption from a Biden era rule that had imposed stricter limits on copper smelter emissions, with Century Aluminum mentioned alongside other listed peers in the aluminum space (Reuters).Narrative Update • Dec 14
CENX: Supportive Trade Tariffs Will Drive Future Pricing Power And Upside
Analysts have raised their price target on Century Aluminum to $37 from $36, citing stronger than expected aluminum pricing driven by resilient China demand and the company’s leverage to supportive U.S. trade tariffs. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight that recent aluminum prices have outpaced prior forecasts, supporting upward revisions to revenue and EBITDA expectations and justifying the higher price target.Narrative Update • Nov 29
CENX: Power Agreement Extension and 50% Tariff Support Will Drive Future Gains
Analysts have reaffirmed Century Aluminum's fair value target at $36.00, citing improving profit margins and favorable aluminum market conditions as key factors that support their outlook. Analyst Commentary Analyst opinions regarding Century Aluminum's prospects reflect a careful balance of optimism about the company’s positioning in the current market environment and caution around certain industry trends.Narrative Update • Nov 15
CENX: Aluminum Price Strength and 50% Tariff Support Will Drive Upside Momentum
Century Aluminum's analyst price target has been increased from $30.67 to $36.00. Analysts point to stronger-than-expected aluminum prices and favorable tariff impacts as key factors behind the upward revision.Narrative Update • Nov 01
CENX: Recent Tariff Expansions And China Demand Will Shape Aluminum Outlook
Analysts have reduced Century Aluminum’s fair value estimate by $1.00 to $30.67 per share, citing shifting aluminum price trends, slightly higher discount rates, and recent research highlighting both supportive tariffs as well as stronger-than-expected demand in China. Analyst Commentary Industry experts have weighed in on Century Aluminum’s outlook, leading to new research coverage and updated valuations.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Mt Holly Restart And US Smelter Will Drive Aluminum Expansion
Analysts have raised their price target for Century Aluminum to $31.67 from $29, citing stronger aluminum prices and improved profit margin forecasts as key drivers for the update. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Century Aluminum reflect evolving perspectives on the company’s future, with notable shifts in analyst sentiment following improved market conditions for aluminum and company-specific advantages.Narrative Update • Oct 03
Mt Holly Restart And US Smelter Will Drive Aluminum Expansion
Analysts have raised their price target for Century Aluminum from $27 to $29 per share. They cite improved revenue growth outlook and favorable market updates as key factors behind the revision.Analysis Article • Sep 20
Investors Appear Satisfied With Century Aluminum Company's (NASDAQ:CENX) Prospects As Shares Rocket 26%
Despite an already strong run, Century Aluminum Company ( NASDAQ:CENX ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of...Narrative Update • Sep 10
Mt Holly Restart And US Smelter Will Drive Aluminum Expansion
The upward revision in Century Aluminum's price target reflects stronger fundamentals, with analysts now expecting both higher revenue growth and improved net profit margins, resulting in a new consensus fair value of $27.00. What's in the News Canada is expected to maintain its 25% import tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum products, which directly impacts Century Aluminum (CENX) (Bloomberg, 2025-08-22).Narrative Update • Aug 08
Mt Holly Restart And US Smelter Will Drive Aluminum Expansion
The upward revision in Century Aluminum’s price target reflects stronger profitability, as evidenced by the notable improvement in net profit margin and a more attractive forward P/E, raising the fair value estimate from $22.50 to $25.50. What's in the News Century Aluminum will restart over 50,000MT of idled production at its Mt. Holly, SC smelter, investing $50 million and creating 100+ new jobs.Analysis Article • Aug 06
The Return Trends At Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) Look Promising
There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Amongst other things, we'll want...Analysis Article • Jun 10
Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ:CENX) Soars 27% But It's A Story Of Risk Vs Reward
Century Aluminum Company ( NASDAQ:CENX ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period...Analysis Article • May 16
Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Seeking Alpha • Apr 24
Century Aluminum's Long-Term Strategy Is Solid But Economic Uncertainty Weighs
Summary Growing US protectionism is validating Century Aluminum's strategy of high domestic US production levels. Century has a solid strategy of vertical and horizontal integration, which includes its Jamalco acquisition and planned new US smelter. The Midwest Premium continues to rise, but macroeconomic concerns and investor caution may impact the stock price. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 02
Century Aluminum: A Value-Oriented Trump Trade
Summary Trump's tariffs on aluminum are set to transform the earnings power of Century Aluminum, causing a potential tripling of pre-tax profits. After the company's transformation, I believe it is worth $91 per share given the analog of BlueScope Steel. I recommend investors buy CENX stock, given its discount to estimated fair value. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Sep 14
Green Economy And Debt Reduction Fuel Growth, Yet Shrinking Margins And Market Challenges Loom Ahead
Strategic government actions and a favorable market for aluminum due to electrification and lightweighting trends are expected to positively impact Century Aluminum's revenue.Seeking Alpha • Sep 03
Century Aluminum Remains Sensitive To Highly Competitive Market
Summary Century Aluminum's Q1 net income was driven by a one-time gain, not ongoing profitability, making its current valuation misleading. The company’s operations are highly sensitive to aluminum prices and raw material costs, posing significant risks. Century Aluminum's heavy reliance on a single customer and lack of cash reserves limit its flexibility and growth potential. Despite recent optimism, without a clear catalyst, the stock is overvalued compared to industry peers and is best viewed as a hold. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 10
Century Aluminum: Looming Capex Requirements And Weak Fundamentals
Summary Century Aluminum's stock price has increased by 89% YoY, most likely due to a spike in LME aluminum prices. In my view, the underlying company fundamentals are poor and do not justify a sustained outperformance compared to its peers at the moment. A simple model suggests a ~26% downside to the stock's fair-value. However, the strong correlation with spot aluminum markets suggests a short position could be a speculative bet. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Century Aluminum makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 2,543 | 349 | 93 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 2,528 | 40 | 80 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 2,525 | 81 | 59 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 2,432 | 111 | 57 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 2,365 | 113 | 55 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 2,220 | 319 | 57 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 2,102 | 306 | 49 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 2,108 | 219 | 44 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 2,123 | 229 | 44 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 2,185 | -43 | 43 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 2,203 | -175 | 39 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 2,295 | -94 | 36 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 2,576 | -69 | 30 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 2,777 | -14 | 38 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 2,907 | 148 | 45 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 2,851 | 57 | 50 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 2,522 | -10 | 53 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 2,213 | -167 | 65 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 1,943 | -263 | 51 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 1,754 | -269 | 48 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 1,628 | -261 | 51 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 1,605 | -123 | 44 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 1,651 | -93 | 41 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 1,697 | -55 | 42 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 1,768 | -49 | 42 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 1,837 | -81 | 47 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 1,888 | -141 | 47 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 1,932 | -141 | 44 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 1,929 | -100 | 44 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 1,893 | -66 | 40 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 1,840 | 32 | 46 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 1,759 | 72 | 51 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 1,678 | 60 | 48 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 1,589 | 45 | 45 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 1,495 | -157 | 45 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 1,428 | -235 | 41 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 1,366 | -251 | 41 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 1,319 | -252 | 45 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 1,363 | -127 | 38 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 1,484 | -125 | 40 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 1,681 | -146 | 40 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 1,950 | -59 | 42 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 2,117 | 53 | 46 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 2,163 | 156 | 47 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: CENX has a high level of non-cash earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: CENX's current net profit margins (13.7%) are higher than last year (4.8%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: CENX has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 57.6% per year.
Accelerating Growth: CENX's earnings growth over the past year (208.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (57.6% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: CENX earnings growth over the past year (208.3%) exceeded the Metals and Mining industry 84.5%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: CENX's Return on Equity (24.8%) is considered high.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/13 11:10 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/13 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Century Aluminum Company is covered by 18 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Gagliano | Barclays |
| Paretosh Misra | Berenberg |
| Alexander Robert Pearce | BMO Capital Markets Equity Research |