Analysts have reduced Century Aluminum’s fair value estimate by $1.00 to $30.67 per share, citing shifting aluminum price trends, slightly higher discount rates, and recent research highlighting both supportive tariffs as well as stronger-than-expected demand in China.

Analyst Commentary

Industry experts have weighed in on Century Aluminum’s outlook, leading to new research coverage and updated valuations. The commentary reflects both optimism about the company’s growth catalysts and cautions about market challenges.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts point to robust demand in China, which continues to drive aluminum prices higher and supports broader revenue growth for Century Aluminum.
• Price targets have been raised recently, reflecting confidence in Century's ability to benefit from supportive trade policies, including significant import tariffs that protect U.S. producers.
• Firm coverage initiations with positive ratings reflect expectations for Century to outperform, particularly as recent market performance has exceeded earlier forecasts.
• Updates to forward price curves and the company’s ability to secure favorable pricing are seen as strengthening near-term valuation prospects.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts flag weaker business trends in the U.S. and European Union, which could limit Century’s volume growth outside China.
• Increased discount rates are being applied, which may weigh on the company’s longer-term fair value estimates.
• While tariffs are a tailwind for now, reliance on them introduces policy risk if trade dynamics change.
• Volatility in global aluminum prices poses ongoing risks to forecast certainty and profitability.

What's in the News

• U.S. President Trump reversed a Biden-era pollution rule that imposed stricter limits on copper smelter emissions. This change grants a two-year compliance exemption for affected companies, including Century Aluminum (Reuters).
• Canada will remove many retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products but is likely to keep 25% duties on U.S. steel and aluminum imports. This will impact companies like Century Aluminum (Bloomberg).
• The Trump administration expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by adding 407 derivative product codes. This increases the scope of trade protections for domestic producers such as Century Aluminum (Reuters).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly from $31.67 to $30.67 per share.
• The Discount Rate has risen modestly from 7.83% to 7.92%.
• The Revenue Growth forecast has edged down marginally from 7.57% to 7.56%.
• The Net Profit Margin has increased minimally from 18.27% to 18.28%.
• The Future P/E ratio has declined from 6.75x to 6.55x.