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New Found Gold is currently at a valuation inflection point. Having successfully navigated the "orphan period" of the mining lifecycle, the company is now transitioning into a producer through its "hub-and-spoke" model in Newfoundland.Read more

First Majestic Silver AG Target Price 80 dollars Valuation Framework The 80 dollar target is based on the following assumptions Silver price 150 dollars per ounce Fully diluted shares approximately 515 million Estimated operating cash flow approximately 2.1 billion dollars Cash flow per share approximately 4.0 to 4.2 dollars Bull market multiple 18 to 20 times P to CF Implied valuation range 72 to 84 dollars per share Key Investment Drivers Strong Silver Leverage Annual production 15.4 million ounces of silver Every 10 dollar increase in silver price adds approximately 150 million dollars in cash flow The company is now a high torque silver exposure vehicle Los Gatos Expansion Mill throughput expected to increase toward 4000 tonnes per day Production growth anticipated after 2026 Expansion expected to be internally funded which limits dilution risk Strong Balance Sheet Net Cash Cash 793 million dollars Total debt 292 million dollars Net cash position approximately 500 million dollars This provides financial flexibility reduces downside risk and supports growth and dividend capacity Revenue Linked Dividend Policy Dividend increased to 2 percent of revenues At higher silver prices this structure leads to materially higher dividend payouts and increases institutional attractiveness Multiple Re Rating Potential Current valuation approximately 9 to 10 times P to CF In a silver bull market producers typically re rate to 18 to 20 times P to CF This implies substantial upside even without production growth Shift to Silver Dominant Production Profile Following the Los Gatos acquisition Higher silver weighting Gold primarily a by product This increases sensitivity to rising silver prices Key Risks Silver price declining below 60 dollars per ounce Apparent AISC inflation due to silver equivalent accounting Potential future dilution if equity financing is used The net cash position mitigates financial risk Conclusion Under a 150 dollar silver scenario Estimated operating cash flow approximately 2.1 billion dollars Cash flow per share approximately 4.1 dollars Bull market multiple approximately 19 times Target Price 80 dollars per share Valuation range 60 to 80 dollars Upside case in a silver mania above 80 dollarsRead more

Business Model – Company value: Strong; Buffett’s preferred: Simple and understandable; Status: ✅; Explanation: Global packaging leader where the merger with Berry Global consolidates market share in essential consumer sectors. Economic Moat – Company value: Strong; Buffett’s preferred: Strong and durable advantages; Status: ✅; Explanation: Significant economies of scale and proprietary know‑how, with the announced 1‑for‑5 reverse stock split signaling continued restructuring of the combined entity.​ Management Quality – Company value: Moderate; Buffett’s preferred: Shareholder‑friendly; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Dividend commitment and high yield support income investors, but recent complex M&A and dilution weigh on capital allocation quality.​ Return on Equity – 10‑year average: 23.5%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 15%; Status: ✅; Explanation: Long‑term average ROE remains excellent, though the larger equity base post‑merger will likely dilute future ROE levels.​ Return on Equity – Current: 4.2%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 15%; Status: ❌; Explanation: TTM ROE has dropped sharply to about 4.2% because of merger‑related expenses and the much higher reported equity balance around 11.7 billion dollars.​ Operating Margin – 10‑year average: 11.2%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 12%; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Historical operating margins average roughly 11%, slightly below Buffett’s preferred threshold for high‑quality manufacturers.​ Operating Margin – Current: 9.8%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 12%; Status: ❌; Explanation: Current operating margin is under pressure around 10% due to integration costs and softer volumes.​ Debt to Equity Ratio – Company value: 1.27; Buffett’s preferred: Below 0.5; Status: ❌; Explanation: Financial leverage is high, with total debt estimated near 14.9 billion dollars versus equity of about 11.7 billion dollars.​ Net Debt to EBITDA – Company value: 3.4x; Buffett’s preferred: Below 2.0x; Status: ❌; Explanation: Net leverage of roughly 3.4 times EBITDA is elevated and implies cash flow must prioritize deleveraging over shareholder returns.​ Current Ratio – Company value: 1.20; Buffett’s preferred: Above 1.5; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Liquidity is somewhat tight at about 1.2 times current liabilities, leaving limited buffer despite steady operating cash flow.​ Free Cash Flow – 5‑year average: 815 million dollars (described as volatile); Buffett’s preferred: Consistent and growing; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Five‑year average FCF is solid but TTM free cash flow of roughly 725 million dollars is depressed by integration and transaction costs.​ Earnings Growth – 10‑year CAGR: 2.8%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 10%; Status: ❌; Explanation: Over the past decade earnings have grown in the low single digits, reflecting a mature, slow‑growing packaging market.​ Dividend Yield – Current: 6.29%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 4%; Status: ✅; Explanation: The stock offers an attractive yield above 6%, though the GAAP payout ratio currently exceeds 100% of reported earnings.​ Dividend Growth Streak – Company value: 25+ years; Buffett’s preferred: At least 10 years; Status: ✅; Explanation: Including the Bemis legacy record, Amcor has raised its dividend for more than 25 consecutive years and is recognized among dividend growth names.​ Price to Earnings Ratio – Current TTM: 27.53; Buffett’s preferred: Below 15; Status: ❌; Explanation: Using GAAP EPS of 0.30 dollars, the shares trade at about 27.5 times earnings, which is expensive against Buffett’s value threshold.​ Intrinsic Value (DCF) per share – Estimate: 4.85 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: A discounted cash flow model using TTM FCF of about 725 million dollars, 0% growth, 9% discount rate and 2.5% terminal growth yields intrinsic value around 4.85 dollars per share.​ Intrinsic Value (P/E) per share – Estimate: 9.60 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: Applying a 10‑year median P/E of about 18 times to normalized EPS of 0.53 dollars implies fair value near 9.60 dollars per share.​ Intrinsic Value (P/B) per share – Estimate: 12.73 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: Using an industry median price to book near 2.5 times and current book value of roughly 5.09 dollars per share yields intrinsic value around 12.73 dollars.​ Current Stock Price – Company value: 8.26 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: The latest close on December 24, 2025 shows Amcor trading at about 8.26 dollars per share.​ Margin of Safety – Range: minus 70% to plus 35%; Buffett’s preferred: Above 25%; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: Relative to the three valuation methods, the stock looks overvalued versus DCF but undervalued versus P/B, producing a wide margin‑of‑safety range from negative 70% to positive 35%.​ Final Recommendation – Company value: HOLD; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: ⚠️; Explanation: The shares offer a high yield and appear cheap on asset and normalized earnings metrics, but weak current ROE and high leverage suggest caution until merger synergies clearly lift EPS.Read more

I've been taking a look at stocks that have been given preferential treatment by the US govt and found SLI ($2.50 US), who doesn't have significant Instutional investment yet. In fact, not only is Koch the only sizeable big money at $100M+ (purchased at $7.42/share), but the Department of Energy is the #1 investor at $225M and it received FAST-41 to get the (potentially) richest area of US lithium up and running.Read more

Exploration,completion of Innovative HPGR crushing saving energy costs at Rochestor mine. 2.5x's more throughput with economies of scale, shorter time on leach,higher recoveries.The addition of bolt-on ex Rye Patch properties taking acreage from 14,000acres to 46,000 acres with high grade Lincoln Hills ,Wilco and Gold Ridge.As is Rochestor has a 16 year mine life At Palmarejo with the acquistion of Fresnillo concessions another bolt-on needs no permitting,portals with underground mine access and haulage infrastructure.Read more

Scotts Miracle-Gro (NYSE: SMG) has had a turbulent few years. Pandemic-era demand spikes, followed by normalization and channel inventory corrections, weighed heavily on results and investor sentiment.Read more

(Woodworth Contrarian / Gemini 2026) Originally posted on the Woodworth Contrarian Fund News Page - subscribe there to see this first: https://www.woodworth.fund/news/the-chemistry-of-mispricing-asix When the market counts a company down and out, we take a second look. AdvanSix Inc.Read more

Vertical Integration, Sovereign Backing, and Asymmetric Upside. CURRENTLY PRICED TO PERFECTION - INTERESTING AT $35-40 MP Materials represents the highest conviction idea in the sector for 2026.Read more

EMN – Eastman Chemical Company 1. Reliable & Growing Dividend - EMN has increased its dividend for 16 consecutive years.Read more