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MercadoLibre

MercadoLibre and the Spreadsheet Trick That Decides Everything

MercadoLibre looks like it’s burning cash, but that apparent problem may actually come from pouring money into its fast-growing lending business. If that bet pays off, the company could be far more valuable than the market expects—but the next earnings report may quickly reveal whether this is smart reinvestment or a lasting drag.
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US$7.31k
FV
73.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
43.51%
Revenue growth p.a.
8k
users have viewed this narrative
17users have liked this narrative
3users have commented on this narrative
118users have followed this narrative
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PayPal Holdings

Ten Percent More Volume, One Percent More Transaction Margin

PayPal is processing more payments, but it’s keeping less of each one, and customer growth has stalled—so the real question is whether the company’s big share buybacks can keep carrying the story. See what has to go right for that plan to work, and what warning signs would signal the pressure is getting worse.
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US$70.89
FV
13.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
5.00%
Revenue growth p.a.
1.6k
users have viewed this narrative
6users have liked this narrative
1users have commented on this narrative
18users have followed this narrative
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Celsius Holdings

Celsius Holdings: Undervalued Growth Opportunity Or Trap?

Celsius Holdings, Inc NASDAQ: CELH Fundamental Research Base — Post Q2 2026 Fair value is the FY2026E scenario mean; the price target applies a discount to it. Both are the analyst’s own and are stated with their derivation in Part III.Read more

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US$41
14.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
The fine print at the bottom of the graphic reads: > **Method.** Each year's EPS is multiplied by a fixed bear, base, and bull P/E of 18.0x, 28.0x, and 35.0x. The scenario mean is the simple average of the three outcomes, which assigns equal weight to each and is not a probability-weighted expected value. Fair value of $43.20 is the FY2026E scenario mean, undiscounted. Return convention: CAGR is compounded: $(mean \div spot)^{\frac{1}{years}} - 1$. The source sheet labeled a column CAGR that in fact divided total return by the number of years, which overstates the annualized figure in every year beyond the first (FY2029E: 43.4% simple versus 28.6% compounded). EPS basis: The FY2026E–FY2029E EPS path used here differs from the earnings model in Exhibit 1; refer to the text before publication. Neither path deducts preferred dividends on the Series A and Series B convertible preferred stock. Not investment advice. No recommendation is expressed or implied. Also: The fine print at the bottom of Exhibit 1 reads: > **Basis.** FY2022A–FY2025A net revenue, cost of revenue and gross profit are per Celsius Holdings Form 10-K filings. Operating expense, operating income and net income for those years are restated to exclude non-operating items and do not tie to the filings; see model workbook. FY2026E–FY2031E: Net revenue expressed as stated growth; gross profit off stated margin; operating expense off stated growth. All sub-totals, growth rates and ratios shown here are recomputed from the table rows rather than carried forward. **Model convention.** Net income represents income before taxes and before dividends on the Series A and Series B convertible preferred stock; earnings per share is calculated on the same basis as the forecast years. Exit multiples of 18.0x, 28.0x and 35.0x are applied uniformly across all forecast years and are not derived from a discounted cash flow method; implied market capitalizations correspond directly to target prices. No price target or recommendation is expressed or implied. Then based off of my multiple models I took the average price for each year to find the CAGR and the estimated fair value.
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The9

US Stocks Welcome AI Pharmaceutical Unicorn, Chinese Capital Bets 6 Years On

The US biotech sector is seeing a long-awaited resurgence of risk appetite in August. On August 19th local time, Moderna and Merck announced positive results from their Phase III study of a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine in combination with Keytruda.Read more

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US$8
30.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
11.73%
Future PE
22.81x
Price in 2031
US$13.67
AROC logo
Archrock

AI Needs Power. Power Needs Gas. Gas Needs Compression: The Archrock Investment Thesis

Archrock, Inc. (NYSE: AROC) Strategic Investment Thesis: Data Centers, LNG Dynamics, and the Physics of Natural Gas Compression Executive Summary and Strategic Investment Context The global energy and technology infrastructure is undergoing one of the greatest structural transformations in history at the intersection of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution and the demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG).Read more

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US$44.65
31.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
15.3% p.a.
Profit Margin
20.6%
Future PE
18x
Price in 2031
US$65.73
HHS logo
Harte Hanks

Star Equity (STRR) is buying Harte-Hanks (HHS) at $5.00 a share, half in cash and half in a 10% cumulative preferred (STRRP). HHS trades at

For more Special Sits ideas, sign up for my free blog TLDR: Star Equity (STRR) is buying Harte-Hanks (HHS) at $5.00 a share, half in cash and half in a 10% cumulative preferred (STRRP). HHS trades at $3.60.Read more

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US$4.95
19.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Profit Margin
8.88%
Future PE
14.75x
Price in 2031
US$8.76
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Home Depot

Pro Ecosystem Expansion Will Drive Share Gains and Long-Term Growth in a Fragmented Market

Home Depot is pushing beyond the big-box store by building a one-stop setup for professional contractors, using new specialty distribution businesses, faster delivery, and better digital tools to win bigger, more complex jobs. The upside rests on whether it can smoothly blend these additions and ride a housing rebound before softer demand and cost pressures weigh too long.Read more

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US$385
12.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
11.54% p.a.
Profit Margin
8.41%
Future PE
23.52x
Price in 2031
US$585.3
LOW logo
Lowe's Companies

Digital Tools and Acquisitions Will Capture Underserved Pro Markets

Lowe’s is leaning harder into serving professional contractors by buying specialty building suppliers and rolling out smarter digital tools that help Pros plan, order, and manage jobs. If housing activity picks back up, that mix could help Lowe’s win more of a big, fragmented contractor market—but only if the new businesses fit smoothly and competition doesn’t squeeze profits.Read more

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US$255
14.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
12.77% p.a.
Profit Margin
7.33%
Future PE
18.29x
Price in 2031
US$393.27
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McDonald's

McDonald's - A Fundamental Valuation

McDonald’s leans on its scale and efficient restaurants, but softer consumer spending and changing health habits could make growth harder to come by. The case here is that smarter operations and more automation can keep profits rising even if sales cool, with a clear view on what might derail that path.Read more

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US$233.67
16.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
Fair Value
Revenue
4.19% p.a.
Profit Margin
33%
Future PE
25x
Price in 2036
US$529.49