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THE KINGDOM OF BROWN GOODS: WHY MGPI IS BEING CRUSHED BY INVENTORY & PRIMED FOR RESURRECTION
Originally Posted Dec 5 on the Woodworth Contrarian News Page Brought to you by Quinn Millegan & The Woodworth Contrarian Fund A Deep Dive Into Why the Market Is Pricing MGPI for Permanent Decline When Cyclical Recovery Is Lurking in Plain Sight MGP Ingredient’s factories in Atchison, KS & Lawrenceburg, IN - MGP Ingredients Corporate THE SETUP: MEET THE STOCK THAT FELL 75% AND NOBODY NOTICED MGP Ingredients closed at $24.70 yesterday (with a 3–6% increase intraday today). Two years ago—December 4, 2023—it traded at $91.53.Read more
The "Molecular Pencil": Why Beam's Technology is Built to Win
The "Molecular Pencil": Why Beam's Technology is Built to Win The investment thesis in Beam Therapeutics is a long-term, high-conviction bet on a fundamental technological shift in genetic medicine. While first-generation gene editors like CRISPR-Cas9 function as "molecular scissors," they are an inherently disruptive tool.Read more
Positioned globally, partnered locally
Summary: Google has positioned itself behind their concept of mass investment + strategic partnership to power their AI development and infrastructure. Their ad services follows closely behind while their main focus in the mobile phone market is controlling the Android ecosystem, making strategic entries with Pixel units while attempting to innovate with their aging YouTube platform to keep up with other streaming/video publishing rivals.Read more
Staggered by dilution; positions for growth
Near term excitement and AI frenzy buyers have driven the share price into dilution and undervaluation thanks to current market uncertainty and volatility. APLD relies heavily on their contracts to sustain growth which for the near and mid term appears to remain solid in the presence of increased demand for high capacity, high speed infrastructure.Read more
Not a Bubble, But the "Industrial Revolution 4.0" Engine
The market debate around Nvidia focuses on "peak cycle" fears. This misses the forest for the trees.Read more
The Great Strategy Swap – Selling "Old Auto" to Buy "Future Light"
Marvell Technology has executed a masterclass in capital allocation. In Q3 Fiscal 2026, they did two things that fundamentally alter the investment thesis: they sold their lower-growth Automotive Ethernet business for $2.5 Billion cash , and announced the acquisition of Celestial AI.Read more
PSIX The timing of insider sales is a serious question mark
1. Financial Forensic Analysis: Quality of Earnings PSI's Q3 2025 financial results, while appearing bright on the surface, reveal a profit statement supported by accounting techniques that lacks cash generation capacity upon closer examination.Read more
Engineered for Stability. Positioned for Growth.
Texas Instruments is in the midst of a multiyear capacity-expansion cycle that is temporarily suppressing free cash flow but materially enhancing the company’s long-term competitive position. The buildout of U.S.-based 300mm analog manufacturing is expected to structurally improve cost efficiency, support higher gross margins, and increase supply-chain resilience.Read more
MINISO's fair value is projected at 26.69 with an anticipated PE ratio shift of 20x
MINISO Investment Thesis This analysis is based on the MINISO 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1 earnings call presentations and the provided transcript. # Catalysts MINISO has several key growth drivers that could meaningfully impact sales and earnings: Global Store Network Expansion: The primary catalyst is the aggressive and ongoing expansion of its store network, both in China and, more significantly, in overseas markets.Read more
