Risks
- Dividend history is unstable
- Stock underperformed vs. industry and market in the past year
- Highly cyclical business – earnings depend heavily on commodity prices
Catalysts
- Global demand for copper, especially from EVs, AI, and green infrastructure
- Grasberg mine in Indonesia and large-scale U.S. operations (e.g., Morenci, Bagdad)
- U.S. legislation may classify copper as a "critical mineral", possibly introducing 10% tax credit
Assumptions
- Where do you think revenue will be in 5 years time? and why?Revenue by 2029:
- Estimate: ~$35–38 billion
- Current Revenue: ~$25.5 billion
- Expected Growth: ~4–5% annually
- Where do you think earnings will be in 5 years time? and why?
- Estimate: ~$3.5–4.0 billion
- Current Earnings: $1.88 billion
- Expected Growth: ~12.7% annually
How well do narratives help inform your perspective?
Disclaimer
The user cjimi holds no position in NYSE:FCX. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.