Century Aluminum Company

NasdaqGS:CENX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.6b

Century Aluminum Valuation

Is CENX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of CENX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: CENX ($66.31) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($262.98)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: CENX is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CENX?

Key metric: As CENX is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for CENX. This is calculated by dividing CENX's market cap by their current revenue.
What is CENX's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.6x
SalesUS$2.53b
Market CapUS$6.56b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does CENX's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for CENX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.8x
CSTM Constellium
0.5x7.61%US$3.9b
KALU Kaiser Aluminum
0.7x1.51%US$2.2b
AA Alcoa
1.5x2.00%US$18.9b
TG Tredegar
0.4xn/aUS$294.1m
CENX Century Aluminum
2.6x12.15%US$6.6b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CENX is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does CENX's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

36 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
X United States Steel
0.8x5.01%US$12.42b
NVL Novelis
0.7xn/aUS$11.70b
TX Ternium
0.5x5.18%US$8.09b
CMC Commercial Metals
0.9x6.69%US$7.13b
CENX 2.6xIndustry Avg. 2.6xNo. of Companies36PS03.67.210.814.418+
36 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CENX is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (2.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CENX's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CENX PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.6x
Fair PS Ratio1.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: CENX is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CENX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$66.31
US$76.67
+15.62%
9.18%US$86.00US$69.00n/a3
Apr ’27US$63.51
US$66.00
+3.92%
5.39%US$69.00US$61.00n/a3
Mar ’27US$51.56
US$63.33
+22.83%
5.21%US$68.00US$61.00n/a3
Feb ’27US$45.33
US$50.00
+10.30%
19.80%US$61.00US$37.00n/a3
Jan ’27US$39.18
US$40.00
+2.09%
10.61%US$46.00US$37.00n/a3
Dec ’26US$29.55
US$36.00
+21.83%
3.93%US$37.00US$34.00n/a3
Nov ’26US$29.62
US$30.67
+3.53%
8.13%US$34.00US$28.00n/a3
Oct ’26US$29.40
US$29.00
-1.36%
3.45%US$30.00US$28.00n/a2
Sep ’26US$22.33
US$25.50
+14.20%
1.96%US$26.00US$25.00n/a2
Aug ’26US$20.47
US$22.50
+9.92%
6.67%US$24.00US$21.00n/a2
Jul ’26US$18.10
US$22.67
+25.23%
5.50%US$24.00US$21.00n/a3
Jun ’26US$15.49
US$22.67
+46.33%
5.50%US$24.00US$21.00n/a3
May ’26US$16.80
US$23.33
+38.89%
4.04%US$24.00US$22.00n/a3
Apr ’26US$18.40
US$26.00
+41.30%
6.28%US$28.00US$24.00US$63.513
Mar ’26US$18.95
US$25.00
+31.93%
8.64%US$27.00US$22.00US$51.563
Feb ’26US$18.28
US$24.00
+31.29%
6.80%US$26.00US$22.00US$45.333
Jan ’26US$18.22
US$24.33
+33.55%
8.44%US$27.00US$22.00US$39.183
Dec ’25US$22.83
US$21.00
-8.02%
14.29%US$24.00US$18.00US$29.552
Nov ’25US$17.22
US$19.00
+10.34%
15.79%US$22.00US$16.00US$29.622
Oct ’25US$16.27
US$19.00
+16.78%
15.79%US$22.00US$16.00US$29.402
Sep ’25US$14.36
US$18.50
+28.83%
18.92%US$22.00US$15.00US$22.332
Aug ’25US$13.89
US$20.50
+47.59%
17.07%US$24.00US$17.00US$20.472
Jul ’25US$16.67
US$18.00
+7.98%
5.56%US$19.00US$17.00US$18.102
Jun ’25US$18.33
US$17.50
-4.53%
8.57%US$19.00US$16.00US$15.492
May ’25US$16.01
US$14.50
-9.43%
10.34%US$16.00US$13.00US$16.802
Apr ’25US$15.53
US$12.50
-19.51%
4.00%US$13.00US$12.00US$18.402
US$76.67
Fair Value
13.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
3
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/10 18:40
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/09 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Century Aluminum Company is covered by 18 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David GaglianoBarclays
Paretosh MisraBerenberg
Alexander Robert PearceBMO Capital Markets Equity Research