Alcoa Corporation

NYSE:AA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$11.8b

Alcoa Valuation

Is AA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AA ($45.74) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($10.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AA is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AA?

Key metric: As AA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AA. This is calculated by dividing AA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.1x
SalesUS$11.00b
Market CapUS$11.78b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.5x
CENX Century Aluminum
1x9.6%US$2.1b
CSTM Constellium
0.2x9.3%US$1.7b
KALU Kaiser Aluminum
0.4x6.1%US$1.3b
TG Tredegar
0.3xn/aUS$239.1m
AA Alcoa
1.1x1.0%US$11.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

25 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TX Ternium
0.4x2.8%US$6.57b
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs
0.3x4.1%US$5.65b
ARNC Arconic
0.4x5.8%US$3.01b
CSTM Constellium
0.2x9.3%US$1.69b
AA 1.1xIndustry Avg. 1.3xNo. of Companies25PS0246810+
25 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.1x
Fair PS Ratio1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$45.74
US$46.97
+2.7%
10.8%US$55.00US$38.50n/a13
Nov ’25US$40.57
US$46.97
+15.8%
10.8%US$55.00US$38.50n/a13
Oct ’25US$39.18
US$44.47
+13.5%
14.4%US$55.00US$36.00n/a12
Sep ’25US$32.10
US$44.56
+38.8%
13.7%US$55.00US$37.00n/a10
Aug ’25US$31.47
US$44.16
+40.3%
15.0%US$55.00US$34.00n/a10
Jul ’25US$39.70
US$40.75
+2.7%
21.5%US$52.00US$25.00n/a11
Jun ’25US$44.27
US$38.53
-13.0%
20.8%US$52.00US$25.00n/a11
May ’25US$34.25
US$36.07
+5.3%
16.5%US$48.00US$25.00n/a12
Apr ’25US$34.02
US$30.60
-10.0%
20.9%US$45.00US$22.00n/a12
Mar ’25US$27.68
US$30.41
+9.9%
20.8%US$45.00US$22.00n/a12
Feb ’25US$29.69
US$31.36
+5.6%
17.8%US$45.00US$23.00n/a13
Jan ’25US$34.00
US$30.81
-9.4%
18.4%US$45.00US$23.00n/a12
Dec ’24US$27.74
US$30.85
+11.2%
20.8%US$45.00US$23.00n/a11
Nov ’24US$25.03
US$30.58
+22.2%
21.6%US$45.00US$23.00US$40.5711
Oct ’24US$29.06
US$37.04
+27.5%
24.3%US$55.00US$25.00US$39.1810
Sep ’24US$31.10
US$38.08
+22.4%
20.3%US$55.00US$25.00US$32.1012
Aug ’24US$35.18
US$38.74
+10.1%
20.0%US$55.00US$25.00US$31.4712
Jul ’24US$33.93
US$45.63
+34.5%
18.3%US$60.00US$33.00US$39.7012
Jun ’24US$32.70
US$49.63
+51.8%
16.4%US$65.00US$37.00US$44.2712
May ’24US$37.27
US$50.40
+35.2%
14.3%US$65.00US$40.00US$34.2510
Apr ’24US$42.56
US$54.20
+27.3%
14.1%US$65.00US$44.00US$34.0210
Mar ’24US$51.65
US$55.00
+6.5%
13.0%US$65.00US$42.00US$27.6810
Feb ’24US$54.58
US$54.00
-1.1%
11.7%US$65.00US$42.00US$29.6910
Jan ’24US$45.47
US$49.20
+8.2%
11.7%US$57.00US$41.00US$34.0010
Dec ’23US$49.10
US$46.80
-4.7%
16.3%US$60.00US$35.00US$27.7410
Nov ’23US$40.88
US$45.70
+11.8%
15.3%US$60.00US$35.00US$25.0310

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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