We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Alcoa Valuation

Is AA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA5.6x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.3x
ARNC Arconic
0.3x-0.1%US$2.4b
CSTM Constellium
0.2x0.5%US$2.1b
CENX Century Aluminum
0.3x-0.8%US$1.0b
KALU Kaiser Aluminum
0.4x2.0%US$1.4b
AA Alcoa
0.7x2.2%US$9.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the peer average (0.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a-0.4%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (1.1x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.7x
Fair PS Ratio0.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AA ($52.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($108.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$52.75
US$52.30
-0.9%
13.7%US$65.00US$42.00n/a10
Jan ’24US$45.47
US$49.20
+8.2%
11.7%US$57.00US$41.00n/a10
Dec ’23US$49.10
US$46.80
-4.7%
16.3%US$60.00US$35.00n/a10
Nov ’23US$40.88
US$45.70
+11.8%
15.3%US$60.00US$35.00n/a10
Oct ’23US$33.66
US$53.56
+59.1%
18.4%US$75.00US$40.00n/a10
Sep ’23US$48.08
US$58.51
+21.7%
15.5%US$75.00US$45.00n/a11
Aug ’23US$48.28
US$61.22
+26.8%
17.0%US$80.00US$45.00n/a11
Jul ’23US$44.78
US$79.22
+76.9%
22.7%US$106.00US$54.00n/a11
Jun ’23US$62.41
US$90.28
+44.7%
13.0%US$110.00US$72.00n/a12
May ’23US$67.80
US$92.00
+35.7%
12.1%US$110.00US$68.00n/a12
Apr ’23US$90.62
US$89.75
-1.0%
19.2%US$115.00US$55.00n/a12
Mar ’23US$79.78
US$73.00
-8.5%
14.4%US$90.00US$55.00n/a11
Feb ’23US$58.17
US$66.34
+14.0%
10.4%US$78.00US$53.70n/a11
Jan ’23US$59.58
US$59.25
-0.6%
8.2%US$66.00US$52.00US$45.4711
Dec ’22US$43.78
US$59.43
+35.7%
6.7%US$66.00US$52.00US$49.1011
Nov ’22US$46.73
US$56.93
+21.8%
9.5%US$63.00US$46.00US$40.8810
Oct ’22US$49.77
US$55.33
+11.2%
9.8%US$63.00US$46.00US$33.6610
Sep ’22US$45.60
US$48.43
+6.2%
7.8%US$52.00US$39.00US$48.0810
Aug ’22US$40.15
US$47.53
+18.4%
10.3%US$52.00US$38.00US$48.2810
Jul ’22US$36.96
US$43.36
+17.3%
17.7%US$56.00US$27.00US$44.7811
Jun ’22US$40.98
US$41.14
+0.4%
18.8%US$56.00US$27.00US$62.4111
May ’22US$36.64
US$38.05
+3.8%
12.0%US$45.00US$27.00US$67.8011
Apr ’22US$32.23
US$29.27
-9.2%
29.1%US$43.00US$13.00US$90.6211
Mar ’22US$25.99
US$22.59
-13.1%
19.8%US$31.00US$13.00US$79.7811
Feb ’22US$18.82
US$21.86
+16.2%
19.1%US$31.00US$13.00US$58.1711
Jan ’22US$23.05
US$18.71
-18.8%
25.5%US$26.00US$11.00US$59.5812

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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